USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - July 11, 2003
WASDE-400 July 11, 2003
Note: This report adopts U.S. area, yield, and production forecasts
for winter wheat, durum, other spring wheat, barley, and oats
released today by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS). For other crops, area estimates reflect the June 30 NASS
Acreage report, and methods used to project yield are noted on
each table. Survey-based area, yield, and production forecasts
reported by NASS will be adopted in the August 12 issue of this
report.
Beginning with today's report, world supply and demand for
soybeans and total oilseeds excludes intra-EU trade. Historical
revisions are available at www.usda.gov/oce.
WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of wheat are up
134 million bushels from last month due to a sharply larger supply
and only a small increase in expected use. Total wheat production
is forecast at 2.311 billion bushels, up more than 40 percent from
last year and the largest crop since 1998/1999. Forecast winter
wheat production is 90 million bushels above last month due to
higher yields. The first survey-based spring wheat (including
durum) production forecast is well above last month's projections,
despite lower planted area estimates in the June 30 Acreage report.
Both the harvested-to-planted ratio and yield are higher than the
averages assumed last month. Supplies are also boosted by larger
reported carryin stocks than forecast last month. Projected exports
are up 25 million bushels due to larger U.S. supplies, lower U.S.
prices, and reduced competition. The projected 2003/04 price
range is down 10 cents on each end to $2.80 to $3.40 per bushel.
Projected 2003/04 world wheat production is down slightly from last
month but use drops more, leaving ending stocks up slightly from
last month. Foreign production is down slightly from last month as
reductions for Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Pakistan are
only partially offset by increases for Canada and North Africa.
Smaller supplies in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Pakistan result in
higher imports and reduced domestic use, exports, and ending
stocks. Russia's smaller crop is reflected in smaller domestic use,
while EU exports, domestic use, and ending stocks decline from last
month's projections. With the larger prospective crops, Canada's
exports are increased while North Africa's imports are reduced.
Projected global ending stocks are up from last month due to the
larger U.S. crop, but are still down sharply from a year earlier.
COARSE GRAINS: The 2003/04 outlook for U.S. feed grains is for
bigger crops, rising use, and slightly higher stocks. Projected
2003/04 corn production is up 210 million bushels from last month
because crop conditions indicate prospective yields are higher than
the trend yields used last month. However, all but 10 million
bushels of the production gain is offset by reduced carryin stocks
and higher use of corn for the production of ethanol. The projected
price range for corn is unchanged from last month at $1.90 to $2.30
per bushel.
Forecast U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are down 75 million
bushels from last month due to higher prospective use of corn in
ethanol production and a 50-million-bushel increase in feed and
residual use. Feed and residual use is higher because the June 1
stocks report indicated higher than expected use in the March-May
quarter.
Global 2003/04 coarse grain supply and use projections are up from
last month, largely because of the bigger U.S. corn crop. Foreign
coarse grain production is little changed from last month as
reductions for Eastern Europe and Ukraine are largely offset by
increases for Canada and several other countries. Lower
prospective corn exports for Eastern Europe are offset by increased
exports by Brazil from the 2002/03 crop. Brazil's 2002/03 crop is
revised up 3 million tons to a record 43.5 million tons. The larger
Brazilian corn crop also accounts for much of the rise in projected
global coarse grain stocks.
RICE: U.S. rice production in 2003/04 is projected at 195 million
cwt, down 4 million cwt from last month and about 16 million cwt
below 2002/03. Estimated harvested area of 2.97 million acres
reported in the NASS Acreage report is 46,000 acres below last
month, 240,000 acres below 2002/03, and the lowest since
1996/97. Average yield for 2003/04 is adjusted slightly lower
because of a change in the distribution of reported area by type of
rice. Long-grain rice production is projected at 145 million cwt, 2
million cwt above last month but 12.2 million cwt below 2002/03.
Combined medium- and short-grain rice production is projected at
50 million cwt, 6 million cwt below last month, and down 3.7 million
cwt from 2002/03. Projected imports for 2003/04 are raised slightly
to 15 million cwt.
Exports in 2003/04 are projected at 87 million cwt, down 1 million
cwt from last month and 33 million cwt below the revised 2002/03
estimate. Ending stocks are projected at 17.5 million cwt, down 5
million cwt from last month, about 3 million cwt below the revised
2002/03 estimate, and the lowest stocks since 1980/81. The
season-average farm price range for 2003/04 is raised $1.00 per
cwt on each end to $6.25 to $6.75 per cwt compared to $4.18 per
cwt for 2002/03.
U.S. exports for 2002/03 are forecast at a record 120 million cwt, 3
million cwt above last month. Rough rice exports for 2002/03 are
increased to a record 45 million cwt and combined milled and brown
exports (rough-equivalent basis) are raised to 75 million cwt, up 1
and 2 million cwt, respectively, from a month ago. The increase is
based largely on Census data reported through April and data from
the U.S. Export Sales report.
Global rice production for 2003/04 is projected at 394 million tons,
slightly above last month's largely trend-based projection, but nearly
13 million tons above 2002/03. Global consumption for 2003/04 is
projected at a record 412 million tons, slightly above last month and
2002/03. Global consumption is projected to exceed production for
the third consecutive year, resulting in a further drawdown in stocks
to 88.6 million tons, 3.5 million tons below last month, 18.1 million
tons below 2002/03, and the lowest stocks since 1984/85. Global
exports in 2003/04 are projected at 25.4 million tons, nearly the
same as last month, but nearly 2 million tons below 2002/03.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2003/04 are projected
at 8.0 million tons, up 2.8 million tons from 2002/03. U.S. oilseed
production is projected at 87.9 million tons, up 4.6 million tons from
2002/03, primarily reflecting increased soybean production.
Soybean production is projected at 2.89 billion bushels (78.5 million
tons), up 30 million bushels from last month because harvested
area reported in the June 30 Acreage report is above the June
projection. Increased yields for other oilseeds, especially
sunflowerseed, will result in modest year-to-year production gains
despite lower area.
Total oilseed use for the U.S. is projected to rise modestly for
2003/04 as gains in domestic use are mostly offset by lower
exports. U.S. soybean exports are projected at 990 million bushels,
up 30 million bushels from last month, but down 40 million bushels
from 2002/03. The decline from 2002/03 reflects strong competition
expected from anticipated record soybean crops and stocks in
South America. U.S. soybean crush is projected to increase only
15 million bushels for 2003/04, reflecting relatively slow growth in
domestic soybean meal use and limited soybean meal export
prospects. Soybean oil supplies are expected to decline for
2003/04 due to reduced beginning stocks and the small increase in
soybean crush. Expected modest growth in domestic soybean oil
use will curtail exports for 2003/04, which are projected to decline
by over 1 billion pounds to 1.1 billion pounds.
The projected season-average soybean price for 2003/04 is lowered
10 cents on each end to $4.35 to $5.35 per bushel, compared with
$5.50 per bushel for 2002/03. The lower price is the result of
projected increases in global stocks and increased oilseed supplies.
The soybean meal price range is lowered 5 dollars on each end to
$145 to $175 per short ton, compared with $175 per ton projected
for 2002/03. Soybean oil prices are projected at 18 to 21 cents for
2003/04, down from 22 cents for 2002/03, reflecting significantly
larger global oilseed supplies.
Global oilseed production for 2003/04 is projected at a record 352.1
million tons, up 24.4 million tons from 2002/03. Foreign oilseed
production of 264.2 million tons is up 19.8 million tons from
2002/03. Almost half of the increase in global production is for
soybeans, with record crops indicated for Brazil and Argentina at 56
million tons and 37 million tons, respectively. Combined soybean
production for Brazil and Argentina, which trailed U.S. soybean
production just two years ago, is expected to exceed U.S.
production by over 15 percent. Expected global production of other
oilseeds is up 12.7 million tons, led by sharp increases for rapeseed
and cottonseed. Rapeseed production for Canada rises almost 3
million tons due to higher area and a rebound from drought-reduced
yields. China's rapeseed production is expected to rise by over 1
million tons to 11.6 million tons. Global cottonseed production for
2003/04 increases by over 3 million tons, with China accounting for
about half of the gain.
Global consumption growth of both protein meals and vegetable oils
in 2003/04 is expected to exceed 4 percent. Protein demand
growth will be driven by strong gains in China and several other
Asian and Mideastern countries. Protein meal consumption for
China is expected to increase by 8 percent, led by gains for
soybean meal. However, increased oilseed production in China will
limit oilseed import growth, with soybean imports projected to reach
18.5 million tons compared with 18.2 million tons in 2002/03.
Global vegetable oil consumption is expected to gain 4-5 percent,
led by gains in China and in India. India is expected to show a
moderate gain in per capita oil consumption after a decline in
2002/03.
U.S. soybean exports for 2002/03 are forecast at 1,030 million
bushels, up 20 million bushels from last month. Seed use is
increased slightly due to higher planted area reported in the June 30
Acreage report. These increases in use are more than offset by a
36-million-bushel reduction in residual use, raising soybean ending
stocks for 2002/03 by 15 million bushels, to 155 million bushels.
SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2003/04 is
reduced 60,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Lower cane
sugar production in Florida more than offsets higher beginning
stocks. The decrease in Florida production reflects lower-than-
expected area intended for sugarcane harvest reported in the June
Acreage report. For fiscal year 2002/03, imports under the re-
export programs are increased 40,000 tons based on higher-than-
expected pace to date.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Note: The discovery of
bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada resulted in the
United States placing a ban on imports of ruminant animals and
products from that country as of May 20. Due to uncertainties as to
the length of the ban, the impact of BSE in this report is limited to
the impacts of the ban to date. Subsequent estimates will reflect
information available at that time.
Total U.S. meat production in 2003 and 2004 is projected higher
than last month. Forecast 2003 beef and broiler production is
raised but forecast pork production is reduced fractionally. Larger-
than-expected cattle slaughter in the second quarter has increased
near-term beef production forecasts, and higher forecast
placements through the summer are expected to lead to larger beef
production in the latter part of 2003 and early 2004. The release of
USDA's Cattle report on July 18 will provide a basis for reevaluating
beef production into 2004. Broiler production forecasts for 2003 are
raised as heavier bird weights more than offset continued lower egg
sets and chick placements. The 2003 pork production forecast is
little changed from last month as higher-than- expected hog
slaughter in the second quarter is more than offset by declines in
forecast fourth-quarter slaughter. The June 27 Quarterly Hogs and
Pigs report indicated that although producers intend to cut back on
production, the rate of decline is less than previously expected.
Thus, projected 2004 pork production is raised from last month.
Broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2004 are unchanged.
Meat imports for 2003 are reduced. Beef import forecasts in the
second and third quarters reflect the cutoff of Canadian beef since
May 20. Pork imports are raised from last month for both 2003 and
2004. The meat export forecast for second-quarter 2003 is lowered
as beef and poultry exports for the quarter to date are below
expectations. Beef sales to Mexico have been weak and poultry
sales to Asian markets are lower than expected.
Cattle prices for 2003 and 2004 are forecast lower than last month
as higher beef production is expected to limit cattle price gains.
Hog price forecasts for 2003 are higher than last month as strong
beef prices supported second-quarter hog prices and the fourth-
quarter hog price forecast is raised. Broiler price forecasts are
unchanged from last month but turkey price forecasts for 2003 are
lowered. Pork and poultry price forecasts for 2004 are unchanged.
Dairy production forecasts for 2002/03 and 2003/04 are lowered
from last month as milk-per-cow forecasts are reduced. Cheese
prices have risen sharply and are expected to remain above spring
levels through the fall. As a result, the 2002/03 Class III price
forecast is raised to $10.15 to $10.25. However, due to continued
large stocks of butter and surpluses of nonfat dry milk, the Class IV
price is not expected to respond much to higher cheese prices. The
Class IV price is forecast at $9.95 to $10.15 per cwt. The average
all milk price forecast is raised to $11.60 to $11.70 per cwt. Price
forecasts for 2003/04 are little changed from last month.
COTTON: This month's U.S. projections for 2003/04 include lower
production and domestic mill use, larger exports, and lower stocks.
Beginning stocks are 100,000 bales below last month. Projected
U.S. production is reduced 3.5 percent this month to 16.6 million
bales, reflecting planted area in the June 30 Acreage report
combined with historical average abandonment and yields.
Domestic mill use is cut sharply to 6.8 million bales, as indicators of
both current mill activity and textile trade suggest reduced prospects
for next season. U.S. exports are raised 2.6 percent due to
increasingly tight foreign supplies relative to demand. Ending
stocks are reduced to 3.9 million bales, which is 21 percent of total
use.
World 2003/04 supply and demand projections show little change
from last month. An increase in beginning stocks is about offset by
a reduction in world production, which mainly reflects the reduction
in the U.S. crop. Likewise, world consumption is little changed as
the reduction in U.S. mill use is more than offset by higher
consumption overseas. The world trade forecast is adjusted down
slightly. World ending stocks, at about 33.0 million bales, are nearly
the same as last month and the lowest since 1994/95.
For 2002/03, U.S. mill use is reduced 100,000 bales based on
recent activity. Exports are raised 200,000 bales to 11.6 million
bales, reflecting atypically strong end-of-season shipments.
Accordingly, ending stocks are reduced 100,000 bales. The
2002/03 world estimates include higher production and lower
consumption, resulting in an increase of nearly 2 percent in ending
stocks. Production is raised in Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and others,
partially offset by a decrease for Syria. Consumption is reduced in
Brazil, the United States, Taiwan, and others, partially offset by an
increase for China.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural
Outlook Board,
Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was
prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.
Committee members are listed on page 35.
APPROVED
JAMES A. MOSELEY (for)
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on
August 12, 2003.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following
dates in 2003: Aug. 12, Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11.
Mark Your Calendar for Outlook Forum 2004
USDA will hold the 80th Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19-
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To receive detailed information, send your address to
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USDA/WAOB, Mail Stop 3812 South Building, Washington, D.C.
20250-3812.
For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447.
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WASDE-400-6
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Total grains 3/ :
2001/02 : 1,872.11 2,408.35 238.58 1,899.59 508.76
2002/03 (Est.) : 1,810.62 2,319.38 230.50 1,907.66 411.72
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 1,858.51 2,272.17 226.31 1,921.31 350.86
July : 1,862.02 2,273.74 225.59 1,921.24 352.50
Wheat :
2001/02 : 581.08 781.74 108.04 584.57 197.17
2002/03 (Est.) : 563.83 761.00 102.14 596.89 164.11
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 561.45 726.53 99.32 589.93 136.61
July : 560.30 724.41 98.92 584.12 140.29
Coarse grains 4/ :
2001/02 : 892.41 1,079.98 103.52 904.76 175.22
2002/03 (Est.) : 865.38 1,040.60 101.04 899.62 140.97
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 903.34 1,043.55 101.49 921.38 122.17
July : 907.64 1,048.62 101.30 924.95 123.67
Rice, milled :
2001/02 : 398.61 546.63 27.03 410.26 136.37
2002/03 (Est.) : 381.40 517.78 27.32 411.15 106.63
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 393.73 502.08 25.50 410.00 92.08
July : 394.08 500.71 25.38 412.17 88.55
:
: United States
Total grains 3/ :
2001/02 : 321.86 405.20 84.29 253.48 67.42
2002/03 (Est.) : 295.54 368.24 72.99 252.31 42.93
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 343.75 393.96 82.53 255.79 55.64
July : 352.57 401.38 83.29 258.97 59.12
Wheat :
2001/02 : 53.26 80.04 26.19 32.70 21.15
2002/03 (Est.) : 43.99 67.27 23.41 30.48 13.38
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 59.23 74.68 25.86 32.39 16.44
July : 62.89 79.00 26.54 32.39 20.08
Coarse grains 4/ :
2001/02 : 261.86 317.12 55.15 216.92 45.05
2002/03 (Est.) : 245.04 292.79 45.89 217.99 28.91
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 278.29 311.88 53.92 219.47 38.49
July : 283.58 315.16 54.03 222.64 38.49
Rice, milled :
2001/02 : 6.74 8.04 2.96 3.87 1.22
2002/03 (Est.) : 6.51 8.19 3.70 3.85 0.64
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 6.23 7.40 2.75 3.94 0.71
July : 6.10 7.22 2.72 3.95 0.55
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye,
millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).
WASDE-400-7
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: Foreign 3/
Total grains 4/ :
2001/02 : 1,550.25 2,003.15 154.29 1,646.11 441.33
2002/03 (Est.) : 1,515.08 1,951.14 157.50 1,655.35 368.78
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 1,514.76 1,878.21 143.78 1,665.51 295.22
July : 1,509.45 1,872.36 142.31 1,662.27 293.38
Wheat :
2001/02 : 527.82 701.70 81.85 551.87 176.02
2002/03 (Est.) : 519.84 693.74 78.73 566.41 150.73
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 502.22 651.86 73.46 557.54 120.17
July : 497.40 645.41 72.39 551.74 120.21
Coarse grains 5/ :
2001/02 : 630.55 762.85 48.37 687.84 130.16
2002/03 (Est.) : 620.34 747.81 55.16 681.64 112.06
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 625.05 731.67 47.57 701.92 83.67
July : 624.07 733.46 47.27 702.31 85.17
Rice, milled :
2001/02 : 391.87 538.59 24.07 406.40 135.15
2002/03 (Est.) : 374.90 509.59 23.62 407.30 105.99
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 387.50 494.68 22.75 406.06 91.38
July : 387.98 493.49 22.66 408.22 88.00
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains
and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed
grains.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
2001/02 : 98.46 141.16 29.05 94.45 47.20
2002/03 (Est.) : 87.72 134.92 30.21 97.83 36.96
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 95.50 131.83 30.70 99.00 33.14
July : 94.84 131.80 29.98 99.14 32.96
: United States
2001/02 : 20.30 26.32 11.00 7.70 7.45
2002/03 (Est.) : 17.21 24.72 11.60 7.30 5.80
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 17.20 23.15 11.50 7.20 4.50
July : 16.60 22.45 11.80 6.80 3.90
: Foreign 3/
2001/02 : 78.16 114.84 18.05 86.76 39.76
2002/03 (Est.) : 70.51 110.20 18.61 90.53 31.16
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 78.30 108.69 19.20 91.80 28.64
July : 78.24 109.35 18.18 92.34 29.06
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.
WASDE-400-8
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Oilseeds :
2001/02 : 324.46 360.11 64.06 264.57 36.72
2002/03 (Est.) : 327.63 364.34 72.15 268.81 38.24
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 344.00 379.04
July : 352.05 390.30 74.42 286.63 43.43
Oilmeals :
2001/02 : 183.06 188.43 53.75 183.86 5.75
2002/03 (Est.) : 187.00 192.76 55.85 187.18 5.79
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June :
July : 198.62 204.41 59.58 197.29 6.30
Vegetable Oils :
2001/02 : 92.24 100.67 33.59 92.43 7.59
2002/03 (Est.) : 93.57 101.16 35.54 94.29 6.59
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June :
July : 99.40 105.97 36.47 98.41 6.78
:
: United States
Oilseeds :
2001/02 : 89.83 98.30 29.97 50.62 6.87
2002/03 (Est.) : 83.25 90.65 29.04 47.33 5.17
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 87.37 92.72 26.92 48.07 7.72
July : 87.85 93.60 27.74 48.19 7.98
Oilmeals :
2001/02 : 38.89 40.34 7.06 32.99 0.29
2002/03 (Est.) : 36.35 37.64 5.64 31.69 0.31
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 37.23 38.75 5.82 32.66 0.27
July : 37.20 38.67 5.66 32.74 0.27
Vegetable Oils :
2001/02 : 9.64 13.04 1.55 10.18 1.31
2002/03 (Est.) : 9.15 12.10 1.19 10.05 0.86
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 9.28 12.09 0.79 10.27 0.90
July : 9.30 11.89 0.78 10.30 0.82
:
: Foreign 3/
Oilseeds :
2001/02 : 234.63 261.80 34.09 213.95 29.84
2002/03 (Est.) : 244.38 273.69 43.12 221.48 33.08
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June : 256.63 286.32
July : 264.20 296.70 46.68 238.43 35.45
Oilmeals :
2001/02 : 144.17 148.09 46.69 150.86 5.46
2002/03 (Est.) : 150.65 155.12 50.21 155.49 5.48
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June :
July : 161.43 165.74 53.92 164.55 6.03
Vegetable Oils :
2001/02 : 82.59 87.64 32.04 82.25 6.29
2002/03 (Est.) : 84.42 89.07 34.36 84.23 5.73
2003/04 (Proj.) :
June :
July : 90.10 94.08 35.69 88.11 5.96
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an
Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to
world minus United States.
WASDE-400-9
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :==============================
: : Est. : June July
===============================================================================
Area : Million acres
Planted : 59.6 60.4 61.7 * 60.9
Harvested : 48.6 45.8 52.7 * 52.7
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 40.2 35.3 41.3 * 43.9
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 876 777 468 492
Production : 1,957 1,616 2,176 2,311
Imports : 108 78 100 100
Supply, total : 2,941 2,472 2,744 2,903
Food : 926 935 930 930
Seed : 84 83 85 85
Feed and residual : 191 102 175 175
Domestic, total : 1,201 1,120 1,190 1,190
Exports : 962 860 950 975
Use, total : 2,164 1,980 2,140 2,165
Ending stocks : 777 492 604 738
CCC inventory : 99 66
Free stocks : 678 426
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.78 3.56 2.90- 3.50 2.80- 3.40
===============================================================================
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use
===============================================================================
Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : :
June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total
===============================================================================
2002/03 (estimated) : Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777
Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616
Supply, total 3/ : 973 618 417 321 142 2,472
Domestic use : 470 218 257 96 80 1,120
Exports : 315 255 105 150 35 860
Use, total : 785 473 362 246 115 1,980
Ending stocks, total : 189 145 55 75 28 492
:
2003/04 (projected) :
Beginning stocks : 189 145 55 75 28 492
Production : 1,091 467 366 293 93 2,311
Supply, total 3/ : 1,281 666 421 383 151 2,903
Domestic use : 496 246 261 102 85 1,190
Exports : 410 240 100 190 35 975
Use, total : 906 486 361 292 120 2,165
Ending stocks, total : 375 179 60 92 31 738
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1.
2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes
imports. * For June, winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in June
Crop Production. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum)
projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1998-2002.
For July: Area planted, area harvested, yield and production as reported in
July Crop Production report.
WASDE-400-10
U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :==============================
: : Est. : June July
===============================================================================
FEED GRAINS :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 95.4 98.7 98.7 * 98.7 *
Harvested : 83.6 82.8 87.2 * 87.3 *
Yield per harvested : Metric tons
acre : 3.13 2.96 3.19 3.25
: Million metric tons
Beginning stocks : 52.7 45.0 30.9 28.9
Production : 261.7 244.9 278.1 283.4
Imports : 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5
Supply, total : 316.8 292.4 311.5 314.8
Feed and residual : 158.5 153.0 152.6 152.6
Food, seed & industrial : 58.1 64.6 66.6 69.7
Domestic, total : 216.6 217.7 219.1 222.3
Exports : 55.1 45.9 53.9 54.0
Use, total : 271.7 263.5 273.0 276.3
Ending stocks, total : 45.0 28.9 38.5 38.5
CCC inventory : 0.2 0.1
Free stocks : 44.9 28.8
Outstanding loans : 5.6 6.5
:
CORN :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 75.8 79.1 79.0 * 79.1 *
Harvested : 68.8 69.3 72.0 * 72.0 *
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 138.2 130.0 139.7 * 142.7 *
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 1,899 1,596 1,084 1,009
Production : 9,507 9,008 10,060 10,270
Imports : 10 15 10 10
Supply, total : 11,416 10,619 11,154 11,289
Feed and residual : 5,861 5,700 5,600 5,600
Food, seed & industrial : 2,054 2,310 2,375 2,500
Domestic, total : 7,915 8,010 7,975 8,100
Exports : 1,905 1,600 1,850 1,850
Use, total : 9,820 9,610 9,825 9,950
Ending stocks, total : 1,596 1,009 1,329 1,339
CCC inventory : 6 5
Free stocks : 1,590 1,004
Outstanding loans : 213 250
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.97 2.25- 2.35 1.90- 2.30 1.90- 2.30
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers. * For June, planted acres estimate
reported in March 31, 2003, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres for corn
projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2001.
Corn projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001
period. For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June
Acreage report. Corn projected yield is the trend yield adjusted for crop
conditions.
WASDE-400-11
U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :==============================
: : Est. : June July
===============================================================================
: Million bushels
SORGHUM :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 10.3 9.6 9.5 * 9.5 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.6 7.3 8.2 * 8.1 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 50.7 67.8 * 67.8 *
Beginning stocks : 42 61 46 41
Production : 515 370 553 551
Imports : 0 0 0 0
Supply, total : 556 431 599 592
Feed and residual : 208 165 225 225
Food, seed & industrial : 45 45 55 55
Total domestic : 253 210 280 280
Exports : 242 180 250 250
Use, total : 495 390 530 530
Ending stocks, total : 61 41 69 62
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 2.30- 2.40 1.65- 2.05 1.65- 2.05
:
BARLEY :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.1 5.4 * 5.5 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.3 4.1 4.8 * 4.9 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.2 54.9 62.8 * 59.5 *
Beginning stocks : 106 93 63 69
Production : 249 227 300 292
Imports : 24 20 30 30
Supply, total : 380 340 393 391
Feed and residual : 88 68 100 100
Food, seed & industrial : 172 173 173 173
Total domestic : 260 241 273 273
Exports : 26 29 25 30
Use, total : 287 270 298 303
Ending stocks, total : 93 69 95 88
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.22 2.72 2.15- 2.55 2.15- 2.55
:
OATS :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.4 5.0 4.8 * 4.7 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.9 2.1 2.2 * 2.3 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.4 56.8 61.3 * 64.7 *
Beginning stocks : 73 63 58 50
Production : 117 119 135 148
Imports : 96 100 95 95
Supply, total : 286 282 288 293
Feed and residual : 148 158 150 150
Food, seed & industrial : 72 72 73 73
Total domestic : 220 230 223 223
Exports : 3 3 2 2
Use, total : 223 233 225 225
Ending stocks, total : 63 50 63 68
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.59 1.81 1.15- 1.55 1.15- 1.55
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers. * For June-- planted acres
reported in March 31, 2003 Prospective Plantings. Sorghum and barley:
Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested
for 1999-2001. For sorghum, barley, and oats projected yield derived from
simple linear trend fit over 1960-2002 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported
in March 31, 2003, Prospective Plantings. For July-- Sorghum: Area planted and
area harvested as reported in the June Acreage report. Projected yield derived
from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2002 period. Barley and oats: Area,
yield and production as reported in July Crop Production.
WASDE-400-12
U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
(Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :==============================
: : Est. : June July
===============================================================================
TOTAL :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 3.33 3.24 3.04 * 2.99 *
Harvested : 3.31 3.21 3.02 * 2.97 *
Yield per harvested : Pounds
acre : 6,496 6,578 6,600 * 6,572 *
:
: Million hundredweight
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 28.5 39.0 23.2 20.7
Production : 215.3 211.0 199.0 195.0
Imports : 13.2 14.5 14.5 15.0
Supply, total : 256.9 264.4 236.7 230.7
Domestic & residual 3/ : 123.5 123.7 126.1 126.2
Exports, total 4/ : 94.5 120.0 88.0 87.0
Rough : 32.2 45.0 36.0 37.0
Milled (rough equiv.) : 62.4 75.0 52.0 50.0
Use, total : 218.0 243.7 214.1 213.2
Ending stocks : 39.0 20.7 22.6 17.5
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.0 68.0 69.0 69.0
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.25 4.18 5.25- 5.75 6.25- 6.75
:
LONG GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.70 2.51
Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,213 6,260
Beginning stocks : 11.6 26.8 14.6 11.8
Production : 167.6 157.2 143.0 145.0
Supply, total 7/ : 188.3 194.3 168.1 167.3
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.9 87.5 89.0 89.0
Exports 8/ : 73.7 95.0 64.0 68.0
Use, total : 161.6 182.5 153.0 157.0
Ending stocks : 26.8 11.8 15.1 10.3
:
:
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.62 0.70
Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,733 7,729
Beginning stocks : 15.6 10.7 7.1 7.4
Production : 47.7 53.7 56.0 50.0
Supply, total 7/ : 67.1 68.6 67.1 61.9
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 35.6 36.2 37.1 37.2
Exports 8/ : 20.8 25.0 24.0 19.0
Use, total : 56.4 61.2 61.1 56.2
Ending stocks : 10.7 7.4 6.0 5.7
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August
1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type
undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil.
cwt): 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported
use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total
rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending
stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports
are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e.,
the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the
quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are
estimated. * For June: Planted acres reported in March 31, 2003 Prospective
Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by
State and type of rice for 1998-2002. For July: Area planted and area
harvested as reported in June Acreage report. For June and July: Projected
yield is derived from a simple linear trend fit by type of rice over 1990-2002
period.
WASDE-400-13
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :===============================
: : Est. : June July
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS: : Million acres
Area :
Planted : 74.1 73.8 73.2 * 73.7**
Harvested : 73.0 72.2 71.9 * 72.7**
:
: Bushels
Yield per harvested :
acre : 39.6 37.8 39.7 * 39.7**
:
: Million bushels
:
Beginning stocks : 248 208 140 155
Production : 2,891 2,730 2,855 2,885
Imports : 2 4 4 4
Supply, total : 3,141 2,942 2,999 3,044
Crushings : 1,700 1,610 1,620 1,625
Exports : 1,064 1,030 960 990
Seed : 90 90 89 89
Residual : 80 57 _3/ 80 80
Use, total : 2,933 2,787 2,749 2,784
Ending stocks : 208 155 250 260
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.38 5.50 4.45- 5.45 4.35 - 5.35
:
:
: Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL: :
Beginning stocks : 2,877 2,360 1,505 1,455
Production : 18,898 18,340 18,255 18,315
Imports : 46 55 75 75
Supply, total : 21,821 20,755 19,835 19,845
Domestic : 16,942 17,100 17,400 17,400
Exports : 2,519 2,200 1,100 1,100
Use, total : 19,461 19,300 18,500 18,500
Ending stocks : 2,360 1,455 1,335 1,345
Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 16.46 22.00 18.00- 18.00-
: 21.00 21.00
:
: Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL: :
Beginning stocks : 383 240 250 250
Production : 40,292 37,920 38,560 38,625
Imports : 143 240 240 175
Supply, total : 40,818 38,400 39,050 39,050
Domestic : 33,070 32,150 32,600 32,800
Exports : 7,508 6,000 6,200 6,000
Use, total : 40,578 38,150 38,800 38,800
Ending stocks : 240 250 250 250
Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.73 175.00 150.00- 145.00-
: 180.00 175.00
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices:
Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil,
simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48
percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through June, coupled
with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate a below-average residual.
*Planted acres reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres
based on 5-year average planted-to-harvested ratios by state. Projected yield
based on 1978-2002 regional trend analysis. **Planted and harvested acres
from the June 30 Acreage report. Projected yield based on 1978-2002 regional
trend analysis.
WASDE-400-14
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
======================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=====================
: : Estimate : June July
======================================================================
: 1,000 short tons, raw value
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,281 1,563 1,603
Production 2/3/ : 7,907 8,404 8,595 8,495
Beet sugar : 3,915 4,450 4,450 4,450
Cane sugar 4/ : 3,992 3,954 4,145 4,045
Imports 2/ : 1,535 1,663 1,581 1,581
TRQ 5/ : 1,158 1,258 1,221 1,221
Other program 6/ : 296 380 325 325
Other 7/ : 81 25 35 35
Total supply : 11,622 11,348 11,739 11,679
:
Exports 2/8/ : 137 155 150 150
Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,085 9,790 10,050 10,050
Domestic food use : 9,897 9,600 9,850 9,850
Other 9/ : 188 190 200 200
Miscellaneous 10/ : 119 -200 0 0
Use, total : 10,341 9,745 10,200 10,200
Ending stocks 2/ : 1,281 1,603 1,539 1,479
:
Stocks to use ratio : 12.4 16.4 15.1 14.5
======================================================================
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical
data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S.
Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2003/04 are based on analyses by
the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production
by state for 2002/03 (projected 2003/04): FL 2,125 (2,000); HI 280
(280); LA 1,360 (1,600); TX 189 (165); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals
under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries,
and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually
arrived. For 2002/03, available TRQs assume shortfall of 30,000 tons.
For 2003/04, includes only the US commitment to the World Trade
Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar,
minus shortfall of 35,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the
actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 6/ Includes sugar under the
re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and
other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products
for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Residual
statistical discrepancies.
METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS
1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216
Rice : = cwt * .045359
Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401
Barley : = bushels * .021772
Oats : = bushels * .014515
Sugar : = short tons * .907185
Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WASDE-400-15
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2003/04 Projections
Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :===============================
: : Est. : June July
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 15.77 13.96 14.25 * 13.92 *
Harvested : 13.83 12.43 12.90 * 12.55 *
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 705 665 640 * 635 *
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 6.00 7.45 5.90 5.80
Production : 20.30 17.21 17.20 16.60
Imports : 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.05
Supply, total : 26.32 24.72 23.15 22.45
Domestic use : 7.70 7.30 7.20 6.80
Exports : 11.00 11.60 11.50 11.80
Use, total : 18.70 18.90 18.70 18.60
Unaccounted 3/ : 0.18 0.02 -0.05 -0.05
Ending stocks : 7.45 5.80 4.50 3.90
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 29.8 42.8 5/ 5/
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 2002/03 price
is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-May. 5/ USDA is
prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * For June,
planted area reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." For July, planted
area reported in June 30 "Acreage." For both June and July, projected
harvested area based on 1991-2002 average acreage abandonment by State,
excluding the high and low years. Projected yields for both June and July
based on 1991-2002 average yield per harvested acre by State, excluding the
high and low years.
Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of
Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending
stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the
quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing
year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 30.2
percent.
WASDE-400-16
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2001/02
:
World 3/ : 200.65 581.08 108.45 108.90 584.57 108.04 197.17
United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.21 32.70 26.19 21.15
Total foreign : 176.81 527.82 105.52 103.69 551.87 81.85 176.02
Major exporters 4/ : 24.53 152.12 10.25 54.00 109.18 54.25 23.48
Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.09 4.89 10.08 1.14
Australia : 4.54 24.85 0.08 2.70 5.43 16.41 7.63
Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 4.72 7.76 16.27 6.53
EU-15 : 9.75 91.20 9.82 46.50 91.10 11.49 8.18
Major importers 5/ : 108.61 141.32 48.95 12.45 203.20 3.65 92.03
Brazil : 0.65 3.25 7.01 0.40 10.00 0.01 0.90
China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59
N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.48 0.31 29.37 0.24 5.66
Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.24 0.40 19.80 0.50 2.59
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.83 1.38 8.67 0.34 1.61
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.84 34.90 1.69 10.94 30.54 4.15 6.73
India : 21.50 69.68 0.03 0.50 64.20 3.09 23.93
FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.33 3.56 20.46 69.31 13.81 17.14
Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.63 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.48
Kazakhstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20
Ukraine : 0.45 21.35 0.09 3.00 13.44 5.49 2.96
:
: 2002/03 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ : 197.17 563.83 103.76 114.42 596.89 102.14 164.11
United States : 21.15 43.99 2.12 2.78 30.48 23.41 13.38
Total foreign : 176.02 519.84 101.64 111.64 566.41 78.73 150.73
Major exporters 4/ : 23.48 140.70 11.86 59.34 114.83 38.00 23.20
Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 4.98 6.00 2.47
Australia : 7.63 9.39 0.50 4.03 6.75 8.50 2.27
Canada : 6.53 15.69 0.35 4.95 8.00 8.00 6.57
EU-15 : 8.18 103.32 11.00 50.28 95.10 15.50 11.90
Major importers 5/ : 92.03 139.02 45.30 10.25 198.31 4.10 73.94
Brazil : 0.90 2.94 6.70 0.35 9.85 0.01 0.68
China : 76.59 90.29 0.50 6.50 105.20 1.65 60.53
N. Africa 6/ : 5.66 11.56 17.40 0.30 29.18 0.21 5.24
Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.25 0.40 18.60 0.90 1.57
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.61 0.00 9.25 1.80 9.10 0.33 1.43
Selected other :
East. Europe : 6.73 30.55 1.97 10.14 29.72 3.85 5.68
India : 23.93 71.81 0.03 0.60 73.30 4.50 17.96
FSU-12 8/ : 17.14 96.43 3.33 25.56 74.99 25.26 16.64
Russia : 6.48 50.55 0.30 17.50 40.60 13.00 3.73
Kazakhstan : 5.20 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 5.50 6.66
Ukraine : 2.96 20.55 0.75 4.00 14.50 6.60 3.16
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tun
