USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - June 12, 2002
WASDE-387 June 12, 2002
Note: With planting of 2002/03 crops still underway
in the Northern Hemisphere and several months away in
the Southern Hemisphere, early-season projections in
this report are highly tentative. Methods used to
project U.S. acreage and yields are noted in the
footnotes of each table. Today's National
Agricultural Statistics Service forecasts are used
for U.S. winter wheat. Projected area for corn and
soybeans and projected yields for corn are adjusted
this month to reflect unfavorable weather conditions.
WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat
are down 64 million bushels from last month as lower
production and increased use more than offset higher
forecast carryin stocks. Forecast winter wheat
production is reduced 63 million bushels due to lower
yields. Food use is down 5 million bushels from last
month, but exports are increased 25 million bushels
because of reduced competition. The projected price
range for wheat for 2002/03 is up 15 cents on each
end to $2.65 to $3.25 per bushel, compared with $2.78
estimated for 2001/02.
Forecast 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are up 20
million bushels from last month. The 5-million-
bushel drop in food use reflects recently released
mill grind estimates by the Census Bureau. Forecast
exports are down 15 million bushels due to slow
late-season pace of sales and shipments.
Global 2002/03 world wheat production and ending
stocks projections are down from last month. Lower
foreign production is led by reductions of 2 million
tons for China, 1.5 million tons for Australia, and
0.3 to 0.5 million tons each for several countries.
Larger crops in the EU, Morocco, and Brazil are only
partially offsetting. Although projected imports by
Morocco are down from last month, the major impact
from the production changes is a 1-million-ton
reduction in Australia's exports. Larger U.S. and EU
exports offset the reduction for Australia. The
United States, China, the EU, Russia, and Ukraine
account for most of the drop in projected 2002/03
global ending stocks from last month.
COARSE GRAINS: The outlook for U.S. 2002/03 feed
grains is for smaller supplies and stocks than last
month. The 2002/03 corn crop is projected at 9.65
billion bushels, down 285 million bushels from last
month but almost 150 million bushels above 2001/02.
Prolonged wet conditions in the eastern Corn Belt are
expected to reduce corn plantings 1 million acres
from the March intentions. In addition, the
projected yield is reduced 2 bushels per acre from
the simple linear trend used last month because of
delayed planting progress. Most of the lower
production is reflected in projected 2002/03 ending
stocks. A 25-million-bushel reduction in exports is
the only change in projected use this month. Ending
stocks of corn are projected down 320 million bushels
from 2001/02 and would be the smallest since 1996/97.
The projected price range for corn is up 15 cents on
each end to $1.90 to $2.30 per bushel.
Projected 2002/03 global coarse grain production and
stocks are down from last month, largely reflecting
the smaller U.S. corn crop. Most of the reduction in
foreign production is due to smaller prospective corn
and barley crops in Eastern Europe. Global coarse
grain imports are up slightly this month, largely due
to higher expected imports by South Korea and Japan.
Forecast imports for South Korea and Japan also are
raised for 2001/02. These higher corn imports are
balanced by increased exports by China, up 0.5
million tons to 6.5 million tons for 2001/02 and up 2
million tons for 2002/03 to 6 million tons. Lower
China and U.S. corn stocks account for most of the
reduction in projected 2002/03 global coarse grain
ending stocks.
RICE: Ending stocks for 2002/03 are projected at
43.6 million cwt, 1 million cwt below last month, but
still the highest since 1986/87. The reduction in
ending stocks reflects lowered beginning stocks, the
result of increased exports in 2001/02. Exports in
2001/02 are increased 1 million cwt to 91 million cwt
owing to an increase in rough rice exports. At 28
million cwt, 2001/02 rough rice exports are more than
2 million cwt above the previous record set in
1998/99. The 2002/03 rough rice export projection is
27 million cwt, unchanged from a month ago. The
average milling rate for 2001/02 is raised to 70
percent, up 1 percentage point from last month and
the highest rate since 1996/97. The projected
2002/03 milling rate remains at 69 percent. The
season-average price range for 2002/03 is increased 5
cents per cwt on each end to $4.00 to $4.50 per cwt
compared to the estimate of $4.15 per cwt for
2001/02.
Projected global 2002/03 rice supply and use are
nearly unchanged from last month. For 2001/02, world
production, consumption, and exports are raised while
ending stocks are lowered. India's 2001/02 exports
are raised to 4.5 million tons, while Vietnam's
exports are lowered to 3.0 million tons. Larger
world consumption and exports result in reduced
ending stocks, which carry through into 2002/03.
World ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 111.5
million tons, 658,000 tons below a month ago, and the
lowest since 1988/89.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2002/03 is
projected at 88.2 million tons, up 0.6 million tons
from last month. Projected U.S. soybean production
is raised 20 million bushels this month to 2.87
billion bushels because of an anticipated increase in
soybean plantings from the March intentions.
Projected soybean plantings are up 500,000 acres from
last month because of reduced corn plantings. U.S.
soybean export prospects for 2002/03 are reduced 10
million bushels to 965 million bushels this month due
to increased supplies in Brazil and Argentina.
Soybean crush is unchanged as reduced soybean meal
export prospects are offset by increased domestic
use.
Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at
a record 331.6 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from
last month because of increased U.S. soybean
production; foreign oilseed production is unchanged.
Projected U.S. season-average soybean prices for
2002/03 are unchanged at $4.00 to $4.90 per bushel,
compared with an estimated $4.25 per bushel for
2001/02. Soybean product prices are also unchanged.
U.S. soybean exports for 2001/02 are raised 15
million bushels this month to a record 1.035 billion
bushels, as the export pace continues to be stronger
than anticipated. U.S. soybean crush for 2001/02 is
raised 5 million bushels based on increased domestic
soybean meal use. U.S. ending stocks are reduced 20
million bushels to 240 million bushels, slightly
below a year earlier. Soybean meal imports are
raised this month reflecting expected shipments from
Brazil.
Soybean exports from South America for 2001/02 are
reduced 0.45 million tons this month reflecting the
effect of continued economic upheaval in Argentina
and a slow early-season export pace for Brazil.
Global oilseed production for 2001/02 is reduced 0.4
million tons this month primarily because of
reductions for soybeans and peanuts in India.
SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production and use for
fiscal year 2002/03 are unchanged from last month.
The 2002/03 tariff rate quota has not been announced.
For 2001/02, a minor change in cane sugar production
results in a year-ending stocks-to-use ratio of 16.1
percent, up from 16 percent last month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Projected meat
production for 2003 is unchanged this month.
Forecast total U.S. meat production for 2002 is only
slightly raised from last month as hog slaughter has
been higher than expected. The Quarterly Hogs and
Pigs report, scheduled for release June 28, will
provide indications of producers' responses to recent
market conditions. Beef production in 2002 is raised
fractionally as second-quarter cow slaughter has been
relatively high. Poultry production forecasts are
unchanged from last month.
Trade forecasts for red meats for both 2002 and 2003
are unchanged from last month but forecasts of
poultry exports, primarily broilers, have been
reduced in both years. First-quarter exports to Hong
Kong were weaker than expected. Bans by a number of
countries on imports of U.S. poultry have resulted in
sharp reductions in exports of broilers during the
second quarter of 2002. Although most of the import
restrictions have been lifted, exports to Russia have
remained weak. Exports are now expected to grow more
slowly than previously forecast.
Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2002 are lowered
because of large supplies of meat and stagnant
demand. Cattle prices for the spring and summer
quarters are reduced slightly from last month but an
expected reduction in beef supplies should boost
prices in the last quarter of 2002. Hog prices have
been pressured by large meat supplies and prices are
now expected to remain relatively weak as stocks
build. Seasonal increases in fourth-quarter pork
production are expected to put further pressure on
prices. Although some price recovery is expected in
2003, large total meat supplies will limit hog price
gains. Forecast poultry prices for 2002 are lowered
slightly from last month.
Milk production for 2002/03 is raised fractionally
from last month. Milk fat use has been weaker than
expected and commercial dairy stocks are expected to
grow. High cheese production has resulted in large
supplies of whey, which, coupled with weak exports
and weak demand for skim solids, are expected to
result in lower prices for Class III components. As
a result, the forecast for Class III milk prices is
reduced to $11.20 to $11.40 per cwt in 2001/02 and
$10.60 to $11.60 per cwt in 2002/03. Class IV prices
are also lowered in both 2001/02 and 2002/03 as skim
solids demand remains weak. CCC removals of nonfat
dry milk are raised for both years. The all milk
price forecasts for 2001/02 and 2002/03 are lowered.
COTTON: No changes are made in this month's U.S.
projections for 2002/03. For 2001/02, U.S. imports
are raised marginally.
The world balance sheet for 2002/03 includes slightly
higher beginning and ending stocks. Production,
consumption, and trade are unchanged.
For 2001/02, ending stocks are raised slightly due to
larger production and lower consumption. Production
is increased mainly for Australia and Pakistan.
Consumption is reduced for Indonesia, Japan, Mexico,
and Thailand, partially offset by increases for
Pakistan and Russia.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World
Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson,
(202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee
members are listed on page 5.
APPROVED:
KEITH J. COLLINS
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m.
ET on July 11, 2002.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the
following dates in 2002: July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 12, Oct.
11, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10.
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WASDE-387-6
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 1,839.86 2,370.56 233.17 1,876.25 494.31
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,853.79 2,348.10 229.87 1,893.47 454.63
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 1,896.44 2,353.34 230.94 1,920.15 433.18
June : 1,881.50 2,336.14 231.73 1,920.27 415.86
Wheat :
2000/01 : 584.05 761.16 102.78 590.50 170.66
2001/02 (Est.) : 579.71 750.37 106.96 587.67 162.70
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 595.75 758.90 105.87 596.48 162.42
June : 589.78 752.48 105.62 596.41 156.07
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 858.13 1,067.81 105.62 880.79 187.02
2001/02 (Est.) : 877.08 1,064.10 98.24 898.12 165.98
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 905.18 1,072.32 99.56 913.67 158.64
June : 896.21 1,062.19 100.60 913.86 148.33
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 397.67 541.59 24.76 404.96 136.63
2001/02 (Est.) : 397.00 533.63 24.68 407.68 125.95
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 395.51 522.12 25.50 410.00 112.12
June : 395.51 521.46 25.50 410.00 111.46
:
: United States
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.07 255.40 77.43
2001/02 (Est.) : 321.90 405.15 84.92 253.32 66.91
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 332.31 404.83 86.96 255.85 62.01
June : 323.36 396.40 87.01 255.73 53.66
Wheat :
2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.87 36.34 23.85
2001/02 (Est.) : 53.28 79.98 26.13 33.23 20.63
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 51.32 74.26 23.81 33.61 16.83
June : 49.61 73.09 24.49 33.48 15.12
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.51 215.49 52.70
2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.11 55.91 216.20 45.00
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 274.48 322.34 60.27 218.28 43.79
June : 267.24 315.10 59.64 218.28 37.18
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.69 3.58 0.89
2001/02 (Est.) : 6.76 8.06 2.89 3.89 1.28
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 6.51 8.23 2.88 3.95 1.40
June : 6.51 8.22 2.88 3.97 1.36
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye,
millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).
WASDE-387-7
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: Foreign 3/
Total grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 1,500.03 1,949.66 145.10 1,620.85 416.88
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,531.88 1,942.95 144.95 1,640.14 387.73
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 1,564.12 1,948.51 143.97 1,664.30 371.17
June : 1,558.15 1,939.73 144.72 1,664.54 362.20
Wheat :
2000/01 : 523.30 672.11 73.92 554.16 146.81
2001/02 (Est.) : 526.43 670.38 80.83 554.43 142.08
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 544.43 684.64 82.06 562.87 145.59
June : 540.17 679.39 81.13 562.93 140.96
Coarse grains 5/ :
2000/01 : 585.00 743.11 49.11 665.30 134.31
2001/02 (Est.) : 615.22 746.99 42.33 681.92 120.98
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 630.69 749.98 39.29 695.39 114.86
June : 628.97 747.09 40.97 695.58 111.15
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 391.73 534.44 22.07 401.38 135.75
2001/02 (Est.) : 390.23 525.57 21.79 403.79 124.67
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 389.00 513.89 22.62 406.05 110.72
June : 389.00 513.25 22.62 406.03 110.10
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains
and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed
grains.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
2000/01 : 88.80 131.29 26.56 92.25 39.76
2001/02 (Est.) : 98.16 137.92 29.16 93.33 44.92
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 91.00 135.81 30.70 95.50 40.61
June : 91.00 135.92 30.70 95.50 40.72
: United States
2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.76 8.86 6.00
2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.60 7.70
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 17.80 25.53 11.00 7.80 6.70
June : 17.80 25.53 11.00 7.80 6.70
: Foreign 3/
2000/01 : 71.61 110.18 19.80 83.39 33.76
2001/02 (Est.) : 77.86 111.59 18.16 85.73 37.22
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 73.20 110.29 19.70 87.70 33.91
June : 73.20 110.39 19.70 87.70 34.02
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.
WASDE-387-8
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 313.45 347.56 71.48 255.27 34.16
2001/02 (Est.) : 323.87 358.03 70.80 265.28 33.44
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 331.00 364.14
June : 331.56 365.00
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 175.81 181.68 56.78 176.21 5.28
2001/02 (Est.) : 182.78 188.06 59.31 182.50 5.36
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May :
June :
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 89.41 97.59 35.02 88.94 8.39
2001/02 (Est.) : 91.30 99.71 36.25 91.44 7.38
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May :
June :
:
: United States
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 28.08 49.02 7.82
2001/02 (Est.) : 89.86 98.21 29.19 50.59 7.87
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 87.61 96.60 27.39 51.04 7.96
June : 88.17 96.57 27.12 50.99 8.22
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 38.18 39.64 7.19 32.06 0.40
2001/02 (Est.) : 38.96 40.42 7.31 32.81 0.30
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 39.33 40.88 7.21 33.40 0.28
June : 39.38 40.81 7.02 33.52 0.28
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 9.50 12.40 1.06 9.65 1.69
2001/02 (Est.) : 9.69 12.87 1.47 9.89 1.50
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 9.87 13.19 1.28 10.46 1.33
June : 9.86 13.27 1.28 10.42 1.44
:
: Foreign 3/
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 228.56 252.87 43.40 206.25 26.34
2001/02 (Est.) : 234.01 259.82 41.62 214.69 25.57
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May : 243.40 267.54
June : 243.40 268.43
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 137.63 142.03 49.59 144.16 4.88
2001/02 (Est.) : 143.82 147.64 52.00 149.68 5.06
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May :
June :
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 79.91 85.19 33.96 79.29 6.70
2001/02 (Est.) : 81.61 86.84 34.78 81.55 5.88
2002/03 (Proj.) :
May :
June :
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an
Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to
world minus United States.
WASDE-387-9
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : May June
===============================================================================
Area : Million acres
Planted : 62.6 59.6 59.0 * 59.0 *
Harvested : 53.1 48.7 47.1 * 47.1 *
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 42.0 40.2 40.1 * 38.7 *
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 950 876 738 758
Production : 2,232 1,958 1,886 1,823
Imports : 90 105 105 105
Supply, total : 3,272 2,939 2,729 2,685
Food : 956 940 955 950
Seed : 80 81 80 80
Feed and residual : 299 200 200 200
Domestic, total : 1,335 1,221 1,235 1,230
Exports : 1,061 960 875 900
Use, total : 2,396 2,181 2,110 2,130
Ending stocks : 876 758 619 555
CCC inventory : 97 99
Free stocks : 779 659
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 2.50- 3.10 2.65- 3.25
===============================================================================
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use
===============================================================================
Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : :
June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total
===============================================================================
2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876
Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,958
Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 314 162 2,939
Domestic use : 458 313 269 96 86 1,221
Exports : 350 220 200 145 45 960
Use, total : 808 533 469 241 130 2,181
Ending stocks Jun : 371 217 66 73 31 758
May : 356 217 66 68 31 738
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1.
2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes
imports. * For May and June, planted acres reported in March 28, 2002,
Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including
durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for
1997-2001. For June, winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in June
12 Crop Production.
******************************************************************************
* *
* *
* Wheat-by-class projections for 2002/03 will first be published *
* in the July 11 WASDE. *
* *
* *
******************************************************************************
WASDE-387-10
U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : May June
===============================================================================
FEED GRAINS :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.3 * 97.3 *
Harvested : 87.7 83.6 86.8 * 85.8 *
Yield per harvested : Metric tons
acre : 3.11 3.13 3.16 3.11
: Million metric tons
Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.0 45.0
Production : 272.9 261.7 274.2 267.0
Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.8
Supply, total : 324.4 316.7 321.9 314.7
Feed and residual : 159.6 158.0 157.0 157.0
Food, seed & industrial : 55.6 57.9 60.9 60.9
Domestic, total : 215.2 215.9 217.9 217.9
Exports : 56.5 55.9 60.3 59.6
Use, total : 271.7 271.8 278.2 277.5
Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.0 43.8 37.2
CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2
Free stocks : 52.4 44.8
Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.9
:
CORN :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 79.6 75.8 79.0 * 78.0 *
Harvested : 72.4 68.8 72.0 * 71.0 *
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 136.9 138.2 137.9 * 135.8 *
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,621 1,621
Production : 9,915 9,507 9,935 9,650
Imports : 7 10 15 15
Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 11,571 11,286
Feed and residual : 5,838 5,825 5,750 5,750
Food, seed & industrial : 1,967 2,045 2,160 2,160
Domestic, total : 7,805 7,870 7,910 7,910
Exports : 1,935 1,925 2,100 2,075
Use, total : 9,740 9,795 10,010 9,985
Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,621 1,561 1,301
CCC inventory : 8 5
Free stocks : 1,891 1,616
Outstanding loans : 253 225
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.85- 1.95 1.75- 2.15 1.90- 2.30
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers. * For May, planted acres estimate
reported in March 28, 2002, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres for corn
projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2001.
Projected corn yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001
period. For June, corn planted and harvested acres adjusted down from March
intentions because of excessive moisture in the Midwest. Projected corn yield
derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001 period, adjusted for
planting progress.
WASDE-387-11
U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : May June
===============================================================================
: Million bushels
SORGHUM :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.0 * 9.0 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.7 * 7.7 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 69.0 * 69.0 *
Beginning stocks : 65 42 46 46
Production : 471 515 533 533
Imports : 0 0 0 0
Supply, total : 536 556 579 579
Feed and residual : 220 215 225 225
Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 50 50
Total domestic : 255 260 275 275
Exports : 239 250 250 250
Use, total : 494 510 525 525
Ending stocks, total : 42 46 54 54
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.80- 1.90 1.60- 2.00 1.75- 2.15
:
BARLEY :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.1 * 5.1 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.5 * 4.5 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 62.1 * 62.1 *
Beginning stocks : 111 106 84 84
Production : 319 250 278 278
Imports : 29 23 30 30
Supply, total : 459 379 392 392
Feed and residual : 123 95 110 110
Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172
Total domestic : 295 267 282 282
Exports : 58 28 25 25
Use, total : 353 295 307 307
Ending stocks, total : 106 84 85 85
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.23 1.95- 2.35 2.05- 2.45
:
OATS :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.1 * 5.1 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.5 * 2.5 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.3 61.2 * 61.2 *
Beginning stocks : 76 73 55 55
Production : 150 117 155 155
Imports : 106 95 100 100
Supply, total : 332 285 310 310
Feed and residual : 189 155 175 175
Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72
Total domestic : 257 227 247 247
Exports : 2 3 2 2
Use, total : 259 230 249 249
Ending stocks, total : 73 55 61 61
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.58 0.90- 1.30 1.00- 1.40
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted
average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 28,
2002, Prospective Plantings. Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected
by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2001 for sorghum
and 1999-2001 for barley. For sorghum, barley, and oats projected yield
derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001 period. Oats: Harvested
acres reported in March 28, 2002, Prospective Plantings.
WASDE-387-12
U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
(Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : May June
===============================================================================
TOTAL :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 3.06 3.34 3.32 * 3.32 *
Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.30 * 3.30 *
Yield per harvested : Pounds
acre : 6,281 6,429 6,299 * 6,299 *
:
: Million hundredweight
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 41.4 40.4
Production : 190.9 213.0 208.0 208.0
Imports : 10.9 13.0 13.3 13.3
Supply, total : 229.2 254.5 262.7 261.7
Domestic & residual 3/ : 114.3 123.1 126.1 126.1
Exports, total 4/ : 86.4 91.0 92.0 92.0
Rough : 22.7 28.0 27.0 27.0
Milled (rough equiv.) : 63.7 63.0 65.0 65.0
Use, total : 200.7 214.1 218.1 218.1
Ending stocks : 28.5 40.4 44.6 43.6
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 70.0 69.0 69.0
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.15 3.95- 4.45 4.00- 4.50
:
LONG GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70
Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,130
Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 29.9 28.9
Production : 128.8 165.3 160.0 160.0
Supply, total 7/ : 152.8 186.0 199.1 198.1
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 75.1 86.1 90.0 90.0
Exports 8/ : 66.1 71.0 73.0 73.0
Use, total : 141.2 157.1 163.0 163.0
Ending stocks : 11.6 28.9 36.1 35.1
:
:
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62
Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733
Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.3 10.3
Production : 62.1 47.7 48.0 48.0
Supply, total 7/ : 75.1 67.3 62.3 62.3
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.2 37.0 36.1 36.1
Exports 8/ : 20.3 20.0 19.0 19.0
Use, total : 59.5 57.0 55.1 55.1
Ending stocks : 15.6 10.3 7.2 7.2
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August
1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type
undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil.
cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.3. 3/ Residual includes unreported
use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total
rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending
stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports
are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e.,
the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the
quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are
estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 28, 2002 Prospective Plantings.
Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type
of rice for 1997-2001. Projected yield is derived from a simple linear trend
fit by type of rice over 1982-2001 period.
WASDE-387-13
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : May June
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS: : Million acres
Area :
Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.0 * 73.5 *
Harvested : 72.4 73.0 71.7 * 72.2 *
:
: Bushels
Yield per harvested :
acre : 38.1 39.6 39.7 * 39.7 *
:
: Million bushels
:
Beginning stocks : 290 248 260 240
Production : 2,758 2,891 2,850 2,870
Imports : 4 3 4 4
Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 3,114 3,114
Crushings : 1,641 1,695 1,710 1,710
Exports : 1,000 1,035 975 965
Seed : 91 89 89 89
Residual : 73 83 84 84
Use, total : 2,804 2,902 2,859 2,849
Ending stocks : 248 240 255 265
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.25 4.00- 4.90 4.00 - 4.90
:
:
: Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL: :
Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,565 2,645
Production : 18,434 18,810 _3/ 19,170 19,170
Imports : 73 58 65 65
Supply, total : 20,502 21,745 21,800 21,880
Domestic : 16,219 16,900 17,500 17,500
Exports : 1,406 2,200 1,950 1,950
Use, total : 17,625 19,100 19,450 19,450
Ending stocks : 2,877 2,645 2,350 2,430
Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 15.25 15.00- 15.00-
: 18.00 18.00
:
: Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL: :
Beginning stocks : 293 383 275 275
Production : 39,389 40,252 _3/ 40,660 40,660
Imports : 51 190 65 65
Supply, total : 39,733 40,825 41,000 41,000
Domestic : 31,687 32,800 33,100 33,300
Exports : 7,662 7,750 7,650 7,450
Use, total : 39,349 40,550 40,750 40,750
Ending stocks : 383 275 250 250
Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 160.00 145.00- 145.00-
: 175.00 175.00
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil
and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received
by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal,
simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate
of 1,690 million bushels. *Planted acres reported in March 28 Prospective
Plantings adjusted to reflect wet weather in the Eastern Corn Belt. Harvested
acres based on 5-year average planted-to-harvested ratios by state. Projected
yield based on 1978-2001 regional trend analysis.
WASDE-387-14
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
======================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=====================
: : Estimate : May June
======================================================================
: 1,000 short tons, raw value
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,194 1,617 1,630
Production 2/3/ : 8,674 8,017 8,750 8,750
Beet sugar : 4,592 4,000 4,500 4,500
Cane sugar 4/ : 4,082 4,017 4,250 4,250
Imports 2/ : 1,574 1,529 NA NA
TRQ 5/ : 1,260 1,179 NA NA
Other program 6/ : 238 260 260 260
Non-program 7/ : 76 90 60 60
Total supply : 12,467 11,740 NA NA
:
Exports 2/8/ : 141 125 125 125
Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,130 9,985 10,085 10,085
Domestic food use : 9,998 9,800 9,900 9,900
Other 9/ : 132 185 185 185
Miscellaneous 10/ : 1 0 0 0
Use, total : 10,272 10,110 10,210 10,210
Ending stocks 2/ : 2,194 1,630 NA NA
Private : 1,410 1,370 NA NA
Other 11/ : 784 260 NA NA
:
Stocks to use ratio : 21.4 16.1 NA NA
======================================================================
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical
data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S.
Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on analyses by
the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production
by state for 2001/02 (projected 2002/03): FL 1,996 (2,100); HI 270
(270); LA 1,575 (1,700); TX 174 (175); PR 2 (5). 5/ Actual arrivals
under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries,
and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually
arrived. The 2001/02 available TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons.
6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs.
7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to
sugar containing products for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and
feed. 10/ For 2000/2001, includes Commodity Credit Corporation sales
to ethanol producers and residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For
2001/02, includes sugar owned by the CCC as of June 10, 2002. Season-
ending stocks will be a function of market and program developments.
WASDE-387-15
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : May June
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.77 * 14.77 *
Harvested : 13.05 13.83 13.35 * 13.35 *
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 632 705 640 * 640 *
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.70 7.70
Production : 17.19 20.30 17.80 17.80
Imports : 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03
Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 25.52 25.52
Domestic use : 8.86 7.60 7.80 7.80
Exports : 6.76 11.00 11.00 11.00
Use, total : 15.62 18.60 18.80 18.80
Unaccounted 3/ : -0.51 0.03 0.03 0.03
Ending stocks : 6.00 7.70 6.70 6.70
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 31.2 5/ 5/
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 2001/02 price
is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-April. 5/ USDA is
prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area
reported in March 28 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area based on
1992-2001 average acreage abandonment by State. Projected yield based on
1992-2001 average yield by State.
Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of
Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending
stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the
quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing
year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2001/02 is 40.6
percent.
WASDE-387-16
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2000/01
:
World 3/ : 177.10 584.05 101.61 104.99 590.50 102.78 170.66
United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.14 36.34 28.87 23.85
Total foreign : 151.26 523.30 99.16 96.86 554.16 73.92 146.81
Major exporters 4/ : 26.02 171.58 3.44 54.75 111.78 59.74 29.53
Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59
Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 4.00 6.89 15.93 4.63
Canada : 7.74 26.80 0.20 3.85 7.91 17.32 9.52
EU-15 : 14.05 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.23 14.79
Major importers 5/ : 89.98 143.90 50.47 11.40 208.11 2.59 73.66
Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.29 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70
China : 71.36 99.64 0.20 8.00 114.10 0.62 56.47
N. Africa 6/ : 6.11 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.43 0.30 5.60
Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.15 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.73
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.45 28.68 2.88 9.94 28.99 2.34 4.70
India : 13.08 76.37 0.06 0.50 66.44 1.57 21.50
FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 63.12 4.98 16.16 63.81 4.67 5.38
Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40
Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45
Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45
:
: 2001/02 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ : 170.66 579.71 106.69 107.74 587.67 106.96 162.70
United States : 23.85 53.28 2.86 5.44 33.23 26.13 20.63
Total foreign : 146.81 526.43 103.83 102.30 554.43 80.83 142.08
Major exporters 4/ : 29.53 152.52 9.21 54.47 111.25 54.80 25.21
Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55
Australia : 4.63 24.00 0.05 3.50 6.50 17.50 4.68
Canada : 9.52 21.30 0.15 3.75 8.07 16.50 6.40
EU-15 : 14.79 91.73 9.00 47.18 91.93 10.00 13.58
Major importers 5/ : 73.66 140.42 48.80 10.64 206.73 3.97 52.18
Brazil : 0.70 3.25 6.70 0.30 9.75 0.00 0.90
China : 56.47 94.00 1.50 7.00 112.60 1.50 37.87
N. Africa 6/ : 5.60 12.68 15.60 0.31 28.19 0.25 5.44
Pakistan : 3.73 19.02 0.50 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.45
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 9.50 1.68 9.45 0.27 1.56
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.70 35.24 1.57 11.19 31.08 4.17 6.26
India : 21.50 68.76 0.10 0.50 60.36 3.00 27.00
FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.59 19.56 68.34 12.66 19.25
Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.50 14.00 38.00 3.00 7.80
Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.30 4.97 3.50 5.70
Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.10 2.20 12.66 6.00 3.20
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-387-17
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2002/03 (Projected)
World 3/ :
May : 163.15 595.75 104.50 109.50 596.48 105.87 162.42
June : 162.70 589.78 104.00 109.10 596.41 105.62 156.07
United States :
May : 20.08 51.32 2.86 5.44 33.61 23.81 16.83
June : 20.63 49.61 2.86 5.44 33.48 24.49 15.12
Total foreign :
May : 143.07 544.43 101.64 104.06 562.87 82.06 145.59
June : 142.08 540.17 101.14 103.66 562.93 81.13 140.96
Major exporters 4/ :
May : 24.91 171.96 4.21 56.23 113.68 57.30 30.10
June : 25.21 170.96 4.21 56.73 114.18 56.80 29.40
Argentina May : 0.55 16.50 0.01 0.05 4.60 11.80 0.66
Jun : 0.55 16.50 0.01 0.05 4.60 11.80 0.66
Australia May : 4.38 24.50 0.05 3.70 6.63 18.00 4.30
Jun : 4.68 23.00 0.05 3.70 6.63 17.00 4.10
Canada May : 6.40 24.00 0.15 4.20 8.35 15.50 6.70
Jun : 6.40 24.00 0.15 4.20 8.35 15.50 6.70
EU-15 May : 13.58 106.96 4.00 48.28 94.10 12.00 18.44
Jun : 13.58 107.46 4.00 48.78 94.60 12.50 17.94
Major importers 5/ :
May : 52.23 143.36 50.10 8.98 204.05 3.42 38.22
June : 52.18 142.17 49.80 8.53 204.29 3.42 36.44
Brazil May : 0.80 3.00 6.50 0.20 9.70 0.00 0.60
Jun : 0.90 3.30 6.50 0.20 9.80 0.00 0.90
China May : 37.87 96.00 3.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 25.87
Jun : 37.87 94.00 3.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 23.87
N. Africa 6/ May : 5.54 11.48 16.20 0.30 27.78 0.25 5.19
Jun : 5.44 11.98 15.90 0.30 27.78 0.25 5.29
Pakistan May : 2.45 19.50 0.50 0.40 20.00 1.00 1.45
Jun : 2.45 19.50 0.50 0.40 20.00 1.00 1.45
SE Asia 7/ May : 1.56 0.00 9.80 1.78 9.73 0.22 1.42
Jun : 1.56 0.00 9.80 1.78 9.73 0.22 1.42
Selected other :
East. Europe May : 6.71 32.56 1.87 10.74 31.13 3.05 6.96
Jun : 6.26 31.36 1.87 10.29 30.46 2.82 6.21
India May : 27.00 74.00 0.10 0.60 64.10 4.00 33.00
Jun : 27.00 74.00 0.10 0.60 64.10 4.00 33.00
FSU-12 8/ May : 20.05 81.09 4.07 21.81 71.19 10.16 23.85
Jun : 19.25 80.59 4.07 21.81 71.19 10.16 22.55
Russia May : 8.30 41.00 1.00 15.50 39.50 2.50 8.30
Jun : 7.80 41.00 1.00 15.50 39.50 2.50 7.80
Kazakstan May : 5.70 11.00 0.02 1.50 5.27 4.00 7.45
Jun : 5.70 11.00 0.02 1.50 5.27 4.00 7.45
Ukraine May : 3.50 18.50 0.10 2.70 13.30 3.50 5.30
Jun : 3.20 18.00 0.10 2.70 13.30 3.50 4.50
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-387-18
World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2000/01
:
World 3/ : 209.68 858.13 101.84 587.80 880.79 105.62 187.02
United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.67 215.49 56.51 52.70
Total foreign : 160.82 585.00 99.12 428.13 665.30 49.11 134.31
Major exporters 4/ : 9.85 62.60 3.19 35.77 48.07 19.71 7.85
Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22
Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.54 6.06 4.39 1.11
Canada : 5.67 24.33 2.59 20.56 24.71 3.60 4.28
Major importers 5/ : 31.61 155.71 69.37 162.25 217.94 10.79 27.96
EU-15 : 19.52 107.19 3.03 78.20 102.81 10.05 16.88
Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33
Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.14 36.07 0.02 3.06
Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.72 1.46
South Korea : 0.85 0.47 8.89 7.01 9.25 0.00 0.96
Selected other :
China : 102.69 113.95 2.56 95.38 130.29 7.30 81.63
East. Europe : 4.75 35.96 2.91 30.19 40.29 1.25 2.08
FSU-12 6/ : 3.72 49.52 1.10 29.10 45.79 2.46 6.08
Russia : 1.06 28.20 0.79 15.60 26.88 0.57 2.60
Ukraine : 1.18 12.99 0.05 7.55 10.83 1.45 1.95
:
: 2001/02 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ : 187.02 877.08 99.77 602.32 898.12 98.24 165.98
United States : 52.70 261.86 2.54 158.09 216.20 55.91 45.00
Total foreign : 134.31 615.22 97.22 444.23 681.92 42.33 120.98
Major exporters 4/ : 7.85 60.36 3.77 35.22 47.50 18.36 6.12
Argentina : 1.22 17.05 0.03 5.90 7.96 9.22 1.11