USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - October 11, 2002
WASDE-391 October 11, 2002
WHEAT: Projected 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are down
36 million bushels from last month as reduced production
more than offsets smaller use. Projected ending stocks,
at 371 million bushels, are 406 million bushels below the
revised carryin level and the lowest since 340 million
bushels in 1973/74. Estimated production published in
the September 30 Small Grains 2002 Summary is down 62
million bushels from the previous forecast. Spring wheat
(including durum) is down 46 million bushels, largely
because of lower harvested area. Winter wheat is 16
million bushels below the previous forecast due to lower
area and yield. Projected feed and residual use is
reduced 25 million bushels because the September 1 stocks
implied smaller-than-expected use in the June-August
quarter. The projected price range is narrowed 10 cents
on each end to $3.55 to $3.95 per bushel.
Projected 2002/03 global production, use, and ending
stocks are down slightly from last month. Foreign
production is reduced marginally as smaller expected
crops in Australia, Brazil, and the EU more than offset
increases for Russia and several other countries. Global
imports are up slightly from last month, largely due to
lower production and higher imports for Brazil. The
smaller crop is expected to reduce Australian exports by
2 million tons. Balancing the higher global imports and
reduced Australian exports are increases of 1 million
tons each for Russia and India and 0.5 million tons for
the EU. The United States, India, and Russia account for
most of the reduction in projected 2002/03 global ending
stocks.
COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2002/03 ending stocks of corn
are up 35 million bushels from last month as the higher
production more than offsets increased use and reduced
beginning stocks. Reported beginning stocks are 37
million bushels below last month's forecast. Production
is up 121 million bushels from last month due to higher
yields, but the corn crop is still expected to be the
smallest since 1995/96. Reduced production of barley and
oats, published in the September 30 Small Grains 2002
Summary, is largely reflected in lower projected feed and
residual use. Projected feed and residual use of corn is
increased 50 million bushels this month to offset lower
barley and oat use. The projected 2002/03 corn price
range is lowered 5 cents on each end to $2.30 to $2.70
per bushel.
Projected 2002/03 global coarse grain production, use,
and ending stocks are up slightly from last month.
Foreign coarse grain production is down marginally from
last month as reductions for Australia barley, Canada
barley and oats, China millet and sorghum, and India
millet more than offset increases for Russia barley,
Ukraine and Serbia corn, and EU barley and oats. There
are a number of largely offsetting changes in global
2002/03 coarse grain trade, use, and ending stocks.
RICE: U.S. 2002/03 rice supplies are projected at a
record 263.9 million cwt, 2 percent above last month and
4 percent above 2001/02. Rice production is forecast at
211.9 million cwt, 3 percent above last month, and just
fractionally below the 2001/02 record. U.S. average
yield for 2002/03 is forecast at a record 6,608 pounds
per acre, nearly 3 percent above last month and last
year. Long-grain production is forecast at 157.4 million
cwt, nearly 3 percent above last month, but 5 percent
below the 2001/02 record. Combined medium- and short-
grain production is forecast at 54.5 million cwt, nearly
3 percent above last month, and 14 percent above 2001/02.
Imports in 2002/03 are projected at 13 million cwt, 2
percent below last month and slightly below the revised
2001/02 level.
Domestic and residual use for 2002/03 is projected at a
record 125.0 million cwt, 1 percent below last month, but
nearly 3 percent above revised 2001/02. Exports are
projected at 97 million cwt, 2 percent above last month
and 3 percent above the revised 2001/02 estimate.
Exports of rough rice and milled rice are projected at 32
million cwt and 65 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis),
respectively. Ending stocks, at 41.9 million cwt, are up
nearly 12 percent from last month, 8 percent above
2001/02, and the largest since 1986/87. The season-
average price range for 2002/03 is lowered 35 cents per
cwt on each end to $3.50 to $4.00 per cwt compared to
$4.17 per cwt in 2001/02. The price decline is due
largely to continued weak international prices, record
domestic supplies, and low prices reported by NASS for
the first 2 months of the marketing year.
Global 2002/03 rice production, consumption, exports, and
ending stocks are raised slightly from a month ago. The
increase in global rice production is due primarily to
larger crops projected for Pakistan, Nigeria and the
United States, which are partially offset by decreases
for South Korea and Japan. Rice exports are raised for
Pakistan, Vietnam, and the United States. Global rice
ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 105.5 million
tons, up slightly from last month, but 20 percent below
2001/02 and the lowest since 1987/88.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2002/03 are
projected at 5.8 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from
last month, primarily due to increased beginning stocks
of soybeans. Oilseed production for 2002/03 is forecast
at 81.9 million tons, down 0.6 million tons from last
month, mainly due to reductions for sunflowerseed and
canola. Soybean production is forecast at 2,654 million
bushels, 2 million below last month. Soybean crush is
unchanged this month as improved domestic meal use
prospects offset a decline in soybean meal exports.
Domestic soybean meal use is increased 150,000 tons to
offset lower available supplies of other protein meals.
Soybean meal export prospects are lower due to increased
foreign competition. Soybean oil stocks are reduced as
increased domestic use more than offsets reduced exports.
U.S. season-average soybean prices are projected at $5.05
to $5.95 per bushel, compared with $5.15 to $6.05 last
month. Soybean meal prices are also lower at $165 to
$195 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are unchanged at
19 to 22 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at
317.9 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from last month
due to reductions in both foreign and U.S. production.
Foreign production is reduced 0.6 million tons to 236
million tons. Reduced soybean production prospects for
Canada and lower forecast rapeseed production in the EU
account for most of the foreign production change.
SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year
2002/03, at 8.445 million short tons, raw value, is
unchanged this month. Imports under the tariff rate
quota (TRQ) are increased due to the waiver issued to
allow entry of 23,000 tons of Mexico's 2001/02 quota in
the 2002/03 fiscal year (See FAS news release 0363-02).
The year-ending stocks-to-use ratio is 15.5 percent,
compared with 15.4 percent last month.
For 2001/02, beginning stocks are increased due to
company-reported revisions in 2000/01 year-ending stocks.
Despite higher imports under the re-export programs,
total 2001/02 imports are reduced slightly. Imports
under the TRQ are reduced, mainly by the waiver and
Mexico's shortfall in filling the TRQ. The year-ending
stocks-to-use ratio is 16.6 percent, compared with 16.7
percent last month.
For 2000/01, beet sugar production is increased 88,000
tons, due to company-reported revisions. Final
adjustments by the U.S. Customs Service increased imports
under the TRQ by 17,000 tons. Residual statistical
discrepancies cause miscellaneous uses to increase to
108,000 tons.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast meat production
is raised for 2002 as higher beef and poultry production
are expected to more than offset lower pork production.
Beef production is raised this month as dairy producers
are culling larger than normal numbers of less-efficient
cows. Although eggs set data indicate fourth-quarter
broiler production will be lower than forecast last
month, higher-than-expected production during the third
quarter results in a raised annual 2002 production
forecast. Cattle prices are lowered as supplies of beef
are forecast higher, and hog prices are raised as fourth-
quarter slaughter is lowered from last month. Poultry
prices are unchanged from last month.
The September 27 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated
producers intend to have fewer sows farrow in late 2002
and early 2003. Thus, 2003 pork production is reduced
from last month. As producers are expected to continue
marketing large numbers of heavyweight cattle, beef
production forecasts in the first half of 2003 are
raised. The poultry production forecast is little
changed from last month. Large supplies will continue to
weigh on meat prices. Cattle prices in 2003 are forecast
lower than last month as beef supplies will remain
relatively large. Hog prices are forecast higher as
reduced farrowings are expected to lead to lower hog
slaughter in 2003. Poultry prices are unchanged.
Milk production forecasts for 2001/02 and 2002/03 are
unchanged from last month. Demand is expected to remain
relatively weak, leading to higher forecast commercial
stocks for both years. Prices are little changed.
COTTON: U.S. 2002/03 cotton production and exports are
reduced this month, reflecting adverse weather and
slightly weaker world demand, respectively. Production
is lower in the Southeast due to a combination of weather
problems. Domestic mill use is unchanged from last
month. Exports are reduced nearly 2 percent, reflecting
sluggish demand by foreign mills. These changes result
in an increase in ending stocks to a level of 6.8 million
bales.
The 2002/03 world outlook includes slightly lower
consumption and trade. World production is virtually
unchanged from last month, as reductions for Australia,
the United States, and Uzbekistan are about offset by
increases for India, Syria, and Turkey. Consumption is
reduced mainly in South Korea and Brazil. Exports are
reduced for Australia, the African Franc Zone, the United
States, and Uzbekistan. World ending stocks are raised
nearly 2 percent from last month.
For 2001/02, U.S. ending stocks are calculated as supply
minus use, pending further revisions in the stocks survey
conducted by the Bureau of the Census. The Bureau has
indicated that it will publish a revision in late
October.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World
Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson,
(202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee
members are listed on page 34.
APPROVED:
KEITH J. COLLINS
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m.
ET on November 12, 2002.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on
the following dates in 2002: Nov. 12, and Dec. 10.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on
the following dates in 2003: Jan. 10, Feb. 11, Mar. 11,
Apr. 10, May 12, June 11, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 11, Oct.
10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11.
Announcing Agricultural Outlook Forum 2003: You're invited to
USDA's 79th annual Outlook forum on February 20-21, 2003 in
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2002, will provide timely forecasts of farm prospects and insight into
major trends affecting the farm economy. For complete details access
www.usda.gov/oce or send e-mail agforum@usda.gov.
Leading analysts will be on hand to discuss planting, trade, and price
prospects for farm commodities and farm income prospects for 2003.
Meteorologists will discuss the impact of El Nino on global crops.
With a theme of Competing in the 21st Century, the program will
feature the potential for export competition from Central and Eastern
Europe, Brazil, and Asia, as well as progress in bilateral trade
agreements and the WTO. Focus sessions will highlight challenges
producers face in the competitive arena, ranging from the growing
complexity and cost of regulation, to access to markets and
information, to dealing with food safety and changing eating habits.
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WASDE-391-6
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 1,841.85 2,371.00 232.67 1,870.11 500.89
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,862.57 2,363.45 234.74 1,902.40 461.05
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 1,814.81 2,277.23 226.90 1,903.36 373.87
October : 1,814.41 2,275.47 227.02 1,904.35 371.12
Wheat :
2000/01 : 583.59 758.95 102.82 590.11 168.84
2001/02 (Est.) : 578.64 747.48 107.86 587.92 159.56
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 572.56 734.04 99.89 598.60 135.45
October : 569.77 729.33 100.00 598.16 131.18
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 860.80 1,070.34 105.74 883.59 186.75
2001/02 (Est.) : 887.55 1,074.30 101.42 904.81 169.49
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 861.33 1,030.89 101.67 897.60 133.29
October : 863.40 1,032.89 101.11 898.47 134.41
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 397.46 541.71 24.12 396.41 145.30
2001/02 (Est.) : 396.38 541.67 25.46 409.67 132.00
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 380.93 512.30 25.35 407.16 105.14
October : 381.24 513.25 25.91 407.72 105.53
:
: United States
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43
2001/02 (Est.) : 321.79 405.13 84.09 253.58 67.46
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 294.61 368.26 85.69 248.23 34.34
October : 295.36 368.32 85.75 248.14 34.43
Wheat :
2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85
2001/02 (Est.) : 53.26 80.04 26.16 32.72 21.15
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 45.89 69.22 25.86 32.28 11.08
October : 44.22 67.68 25.86 31.73 10.09
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70
2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.98 217.05 45.09
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 242.26 290.95 56.86 212.01 22.09
October : 244.52 292.38 56.86 212.49 23.03
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89
2001/02 (Est.) : 6.67 7.97 2.94 3.81 1.22
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 6.46 8.10 2.97 3.95 1.17
October : 6.63 8.27 3.04 3.92 1.31
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye,
millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).
WASDE-391-7
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: Foreign 3/
Total grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 1,502.02 1,950.09 144.56 1,614.75 423.45
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,540.78 1,958.33 150.65 1,648.82 393.60
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 1,520.20 1,908.96 141.22 1,655.12 339.53
October : 1,519.05 1,907.15 141.26 1,656.21 336.69
Wheat :
2000/01 : 522.83 669.90 73.92 553.81 144.99
2001/02 (Est.) : 525.38 667.44 81.69 555.19 138.41
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 526.66 664.83 74.03 566.32 124.36
October : 525.56 661.66 74.14 566.42 121.09
Coarse grains 5/ :
2000/01 : 587.67 745.64 49.12 668.20 134.05
2001/02 (Est.) : 625.69 757.18 46.44 687.77 124.40
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 619.06 739.93 44.81 685.59 111.20
October : 618.88 740.51 44.25 685.98 111.38
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 391.52 534.56 21.53 392.74 144.41
2001/02 (Est.) : 389.71 533.70 22.52 405.86 130.79
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 374.48 504.20 22.38 403.21 103.96
October : 374.61 504.98 22.88 403.80 104.22
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains
and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed
grains.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
2000/01 : 88.74 134.04 26.59 91.99 42.71
2001/02 (Est.) : 98.29 140.99 29.04 94.31 47.34
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 88.57 135.41 30.60 96.71 39.16
October : 88.50 135.84 29.91 96.41 39.83
: United States
2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.74 8.86 6.00
2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.72 7.60
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 18.13 25.76 11.20 7.90 6.70
October : 18.07 25.70 11.00 7.90 6.80
: Foreign 3/
2000/01 : 71.56 112.92 19.85 83.12 36.70
2001/02 (Est.) : 77.99 114.67 18.04 86.59 39.74
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 70.43 109.65 19.40 88.81 32.46
October : 70.43 110.15 18.91 88.51 33.03
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.
WASDE-391-8
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 313.36 348.47 71.47 254.35 35.58
2001/02 (Est.) : 323.10 358.69 68.36 264.50 36.22
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 319.06 353.82 71.70 267.03 28.60
October : 317.89 354.11 71.54 267.26 29.34
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 175.12 181.24 56.79 175.68 5.35
2001/02 (Est.) : 182.22 187.57 59.94 181.47 5.52
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 185.62 191.08 60.86 185.40 5.64
October : 185.69 191.20 61.06 185.55 5.53
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 88.98 97.15 34.93 88.32 8.32
2001/02 (Est.) : 90.85 99.18 36.43 91.06 7.29
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 91.88 99.06 37.62 92.25 6.38
October : 91.79 99.08 37.66 92.15 6.40
:
: United States
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.07 7.82
2001/02 (Est.) : 89.83 98.30 30.00 50.62 6.88
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 82.51 89.51 24.03 49.94 5.41
October : 81.94 89.26 23.93 49.63 5.80
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 38.22 39.68 7.23 32.05 0.40
2001/02 (Est.) : 38.95 40.30 7.13 32.92 0.25
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 38.55 39.82 6.34 33.21 0.28
October : 38.38 39.63 6.20 33.15 0.28
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 9.51 12.39 1.05 9.65 1.69
2001/02 (Est.) : 9.65 12.80 1.57 9.91 1.32
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 9.72 12.62 1.51 10.06 1.06
October : 9.59 12.38 1.37 10.03 0.98
:
: Foreign 3/
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 228.47 253.77 43.50 205.29 27.76
2001/02 (Est.) : 233.27 260.38 38.36 213.88 29.34
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 236.54 264.31 47.67 217.09 23.20
October : 235.96 264.86 47.60 217.63 23.53
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 136.90 141.56 49.56 143.63 4.95
2001/02 (Est.) : 143.27 147.27 52.81 148.55 5.27
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 147.07 151.26 54.52 152.20 5.36
October : 147.31 151.58 54.85 152.40 5.25
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 79.47 84.76 33.87 78.67 6.63
2001/02 (Est.) : 81.20 86.38 34.86 81.15 5.98
2002/03 (Proj.) :
September : 82.16 86.43 36.12 82.20 5.32
October : 82.20 86.70 36.29 82.12 5.42
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an
Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to
world minus United States.
WASDE-391-9
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : September October
===============================================================================
Area : Million acres
Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.1 60.4
Harvested : 53.1 48.6 47.6 46.0
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 42.0 40.2 35.4 35.3
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 950 876 772 777
Production : 2,232 1,957 1,686 1,625
Imports : 90 108 85 85
Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,543 2,487
Food : 950 928 930 930
Seed : 80 82 81 86
Feed and residual : 304 193 175 150
Domestic, total : 1,334 1,202 1,186 1,166
Exports : 1,062 961 950 950
Use, total : 2,396 2,164 2,136 2,116
Ending stocks : 876 777 407 371
CCC inventory : 97 99 75 75
Free stocks : 779 678 332 296
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 3.45- 4.05 3.55- 3.95
===============================================================================
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use
===============================================================================
Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : :
June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total
===============================================================================
2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876
Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,957
Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941
Domestic use : 467 304 258 95 78 1,202
Exports : 348 216 199 147 52 961
Use, total : 815 520 457 242 130 2,164
Ending stocks, total : 363 230 78 73 33 777
:
2002/03 (projected) :
Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777
Production : 609 364 332 239 80 1,625
Supply, total 3/ : 973 629 417 319 148 2,487
Domestic use : 460 262 257 101 86 1,166
Exports : 360 280 120 155 35 950
Use, total : 820 542 377 256 121 2,116
Ending stocks, total :
October : 153 87 40 63 27 371
September : 192 85 43 60 28 407
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1.
2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes
imports.
WASDE-391-10
U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : September October
===============================================================================
FEED GRAINS :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.3 98.2
Harvested : 87.7 83.6 85.2 84.3
Yield per harvested : Metric tons
acre : 3.11 3.13 2.84 2.90
: Million metric tons
Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.9 45.1
Production : 272.9 261.7 242.1 244.3
Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6
Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 290.6 292.1
Feed and residual : 159.8 158.6 150.7 151.1
Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 61.1 61.1
Domestic, total : 215.1 216.7 211.7 212.2
Exports : 56.6 55.0 56.9 56.9
Use, total : 271.7 271.7 268.6 269.0
Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.1 22.1 23.0
CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1
Free stocks : 52.4 44.9 22.1 22.9
Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.6 0.0 5.2
:
CORN :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 79.6 75.8 78.8 78.8
Harvested : 72.4 68.8 70.5 70.5
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 136.9 138.2 125.4 127.2
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,636 1,599
Production : 9,915 9,507 8,849 8,970
Imports : 7 10 15 15
Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 10,499 10,584
Feed and residual : 5,842 5,862 5,600 5,650
Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,054 2,170 2,170
Domestic, total : 7,799 7,917 7,770 7,820
Exports : 1,941 1,900 2,000 2,000
Use, total : 9,740 9,817 9,770 9,820
Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,599 729 764
CCC inventory : 8 5 0 5
Free stocks : 1,891 1,594 729 759
Outstanding loans : 253 213 0 200
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.97 2.35- 2.75 2.30- 2.70
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/
Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.
WASDE-391-11
U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : September October
===============================================================================
: Million bushels
SORGHUM :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.3 9.3
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.5 7.5
Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 51.0 51.4
Beginning stocks : 65 42 56 59
Production : 471 515 384 387
Imports : 0 0 0 0
Supply, total : 536 556 441 446
Feed and residual : 222 212 135 135
Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 45 45
Total domestic : 258 257 180 180
Exports : 237 240 220 220
Use, total : 494 497 400 400
Ending stocks, total : 42 59 41 46
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.95 2.35- 2.75 2.30- 2.70
:
BARLEY :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.1
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.5 4.1
Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 55.9 54.9
Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93
Production : 319 249 252 227
Imports : 29 24 25 25
Supply, total : 459 380 370 345
Feed and residual : 123 88 100 80
Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172
Total domestic : 295 260 272 252
Exports : 58 27 20 20
Use, total : 353 287 292 272
Ending stocks, total : 106 93 78 73
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.22 2.40- 2.80 2.40- 2.80
:
OATS :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.1 5.0
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.6 2.1
Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.4 54.2 56.8
Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63
Production : 150 117 143 119
Imports : 106 96 100 100
Supply, total : 332 286 306 282
Feed and residual : 189 148 175 150
Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72
Total domestic : 257 220 247 222
Exports : 2 3 2 2
Use, total : 259 223 249 224
Ending stocks, total : 73 63 57 58
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.59 1.60- 2.00 1.65- 1.95
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers.
WASDE-391-12
U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
(Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : September October
===============================================================================
TOTAL :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 3.06 3.34 3.23 3.23
Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.21 3.21
Yield per harvested : Pounds
acre : 6,281 6,429 6,432 6,608
:
: Million hundredweight
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 39.0 39.0
Production : 190.9 213.0 206.3 211.9
Imports : 10.8 13.2 13.2 13.0
Supply, total : 229.2 254.7 258.5 263.9
Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 121.7 126.0 125.0
Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 94.1 95.0 97.0
Rough : 22.8 31.7 31.0 32.0
Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 62.4 64.0 65.0
Use, total : 200.7 215.8 221.0 222.0
Ending stocks : 28.5 39.0 37.5 41.9
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 69.0
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.17 3.85- 4.35 3.50- 4.00
:
LONG GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70
Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,130
Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.8 26.8
Production : 128.8 165.3 153.2 157.4
Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 186.1 189.3 193.5
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 85.8 89.7 88.7
Exports 8/ : 65.3 73.5 74.0 76.0
Use, total : 141.5 159.3 163.7 164.7
Ending stocks : 11.6 26.8 25.6 28.8
:
:
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62
Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733
Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.7 10.7
Production : 62.1 47.7 53.0 54.5
Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.1 67.7 68.9
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 35.9 36.3 36.3
Exports 8/ : 17.9 20.6 21.0 21.0
Use, total : 59.2 56.4 57.3 57.3
Ending stocks : 15.6 10.7 10.4 11.6
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August
1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type
undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil.
cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported
use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total
rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending
stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports
are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e.,
the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the
quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are
estimated.
WASDE-391-13
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : September October
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS: : Million acres
Area :
Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.0 73.0
Harvested : 72.4 73.0 71.8 71.8
:
: Bushels
Yield per harvested :
acre : 38.1 39.6 37.0 37.0
:
: Million bushels
:
Beginning stocks : 290 248 195 208
Production : 2,758 2,891 2,656 2,654
Imports : 4 2 5 3
Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 2,856 2,865
Crushings : 1,640 1,700 1,675 1,675
Exports : 996 1,065 850 850
Seed : 91 89 87 87
Residual : 78 79 84 78
Use, total : 2,804 2,933 2,696 2,690
Ending stocks : 248 208 160 175
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.35 5.15- 6.05 5.05 - 5.95
:
:
: Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL: :
Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,435 2,385
Production : 18,420 18,865 _3/ 18,930 18,930
Imports : 73 43 65 65
Supply, total : 20,488 21,785 21,430 21,380
Domestic : 16,210 16,900 17,200 17,350
Exports : 1,401 2,500 2,500 2,400
Use, total : 17,611 19,400 19,700 19,750
Ending stocks : 2,877 2,385 1,730 1,630
Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.50 19.00- 19.00-
: 22.00 22.00
:
: Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL: :
Beginning stocks : 293 383 225 225
Production : 39,385 40,332 _3/ 39,885 39,885
Imports : 51 110 240 240
Supply, total : 39,729 40,825 40,350 40,350
Domestic : 31,643 33,000 33,350 33,500
Exports : 7,703 7,600 6,750 6,600
Use, total : 39,346 40,600 40,100 40,100
Ending stocks : 383 225 250 250
Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 168.00 170.00- 165.00-
: 200.00 195.00
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices:
soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil,
simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48
percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush of 1,695 million bushels.
WASDE-391-14
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
======================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=====================
: : Estimate : September October
======================================================================
: 1,000 short tons, raw value
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,201 1,672 1,658
Production 2/3/ : 8,770 7,954 8,445 8,445
Beet sugar : 4,680 3,975 4,375 4,375
Cane sugar 4/ : 4,090 3,979 4,070 4,070
Imports 2/ : 1,591 1,513 1,542 1,565
TRQ 5/ : 1,277 1,123 1,222 1,245
Other program 6/ : 238 305 260 260
Non-program 7/ : 76 85 60 60
Total supply : 12,580 11,668 11,659 11,668
:
Exports 2/8/ : 141 125 125 125
Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,130 9,885 9,980 9,980
Domestic food use : 9,998 9,700 9,800 9,800
Other 9/ : 132 185 180 180
Miscellaneous 10/ : 108 0 0 0
Use, total : 10,379 10,010 10,105 10,105
Ending stocks 2/ : 2,201 1,658 1,554 1,563
Private : 1,417 1,445 NA NA
Other 11/ : 784 213 NA NA
:
Stocks to use ratio : 21.2 16.6 15.4 15.5
======================================================================
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical
data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S.
Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on October
Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates
Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected
2002/03): FL 1,980 (2,020); HI 250 (275); LA 1,575 (1,600); TX 174
(175); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ)
with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the
fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available
TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the
re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and
other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products
for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ For 2000/2001,
includes Commodity Credit Corporation sales to ethanol producers and
residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02,
CCC-owned sugar.
WASDE-391-15
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : September October
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.38 14.38
Harvested : 13.05 13.83 12.89 12.86
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 632 705 675 674
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.60 7.60
Production : 17.19 20.30 18.13 18.07
Imports : 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03
Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 25.76 25.70
Domestic use : 8.86 7.72 7.90 7.90
Exports : 6.74 11.00 11.20 11.00
Use, total : 15.60 18.72 19.10 18.90
Unaccounted 3/ : -0.48 0.00 -0.04 0.00
Ending stocks : 6.00 7.60 6.70 6.80
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 31.5 33.0 5/
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
5/ Weighted average for August 2002. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing
cotton price projections.
===============================================================================
Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of
Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending
stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the
quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing
year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 34.9
percent.
WASDE-391-16
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2000/01
:
World 3/ : 175.36 583.59 101.76 104.89 590.11 102.82 168.84
United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.29 36.30 28.90 23.85
Total foreign : 149.51 522.83 99.31 96.61 553.81 73.92 144.99
Major exporters 4/ : 24.58 171.58 3.44 54.60 111.60 59.74 28.26
Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59
Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 4.00 6.89 15.93 4.63
Canada : 7.70 26.80 0.20 3.70 7.73 17.32 9.66
EU-15 : 12.65 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.23 13.38
Major importers 5/ : 89.69 143.90 50.37 11.40 208.31 2.59 73.06
Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.29 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70
China : 71.36 99.64 0.20 8.00 114.10 0.62 56.47
N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10
Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.45 28.62 2.73 9.84 28.73 2.34 4.74
India : 13.08 76.37 0.44 0.50 66.82 1.57 21.50
FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38
Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40
Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45
Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45
:
: 2001/02 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ : 168.84 578.64 107.73 106.52 587.92 107.86 159.56
United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.26 32.72 26.16 21.15
Total foreign : 144.99 525.38 104.81 101.26 555.19 81.69 138.41
Major exporters 4/ : 28.26 151.79 9.89 54.42 111.24 54.30 24.39
Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55
Australia : 4.63 24.00 0.08 4.00 7.03 16.50 5.18
Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.30 3.20 7.54 16.50 6.49
EU-15 : 13.38 91.73 9.50 47.18 91.93 10.50 12.18
Major importers 5/ : 73.06 140.31 49.54 10.45 207.31 4.06 51.54
Brazil : 0.70 3.25 7.00 0.40 10.05 0.00 0.90
China : 56.47 93.87 1.10 7.00 112.60 1.51 37.33
N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 16.80 0.31 28.88 0.25 5.48
Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 9.25 1.38 9.15 0.28 1.61
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.74 35.09 1.72 10.99 31.18 4.03 6.34
India : 21.50 68.76 0.03 0.50 61.30 3.00 26.00
FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.52 19.66 68.58 13.80 17.80
Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.55 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.40
Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20
Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.08 2.20 12.64 5.49 3.70
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-391-17
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2002/03 (Projected)
World 3/ :
September : 161.49 572.56 98.51 113.11 598.60 99.89 135.45
October : 159.56 569.77 99.01 112.86 598.16 100.00 131.18
United States :
September : 21.01 45.89 2.31 4.76 32.28 25.86 11.08
October : 21.15 44.22 2.31 4.08 31.73 25.86 10.09
Total foreign :
September : 140.48 526.66 96.20 108.35 566.32 74.03 124.36
October : 138.41 525.56 96.70 108.78 566.42 74.14 121.09
Major exporters 4/ :
September : 24.39 148.80 5.36 58.82 116.38 43.80 18.38
October : 24.39 146.50 5.41 58.73 115.53 41.80 18.98
Argentina Sep : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66
Oct : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66
Australia Sep : 5.18 15.00 0.05 4.20 7.13 10.00 3.10
Oct : 5.18 13.00 0.10 4.20 7.18 8.00 3.10
Canada Sep : 6.49 15.40 0.30 3.70 8.05 9.50 4.64
Oct : 6.49 15.50 0.30 3.70 8.05 9.00 5.24
EU-15 Sep : 12.18 104.40 5.00 50.87 96.60 15.00 9.98
Oct : 12.18 104.00 5.00 50.78 95.70 15.50 9.98
Major importers 5/ :
September : 51.72 141.09 45.90 8.63 204.44 3.37 30.91
October : 51.54 140.59 46.40 8.75 204.56 3.43 30.54
Brazil Sep : 0.90 3.70 6.00 0.30 9.80 0.00 0.80
Oct : 0.90 3.30 6.50 0.35 9.90 0.00 0.80
China Sep : 37.53 92.00 1.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 19.53
Oct : 37.33 92.00 1.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 19.33
N. Africa 6/ Sep : 5.48 11.51 16.50 0.30 28.68 0.20 4.61
Oct : 5.48 11.41 16.50 0.30 28.68 0.20 4.51
Pakistan Sep : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45
Oct : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45
SE Asia 7/ Sep : 1.56 0.00 9.80 1.78 9.73 0.22 1.42
Oct : 1.61 0.00 9.80 1.80 9.75 0.23 1.43
Selected other :
East. Europe Sep : 6.35 30.40 2.37 10.34 30.71 2.77 5.64
Oct : 6.34 31.00 2.20 10.69 31.16 2.82 5.56
India Sep : 27.00 72.00 0.10 0.60 63.10 5.00 31.00
Oct : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 64.05 6.00 28.00
FSU-12 8/ Sep : 18.55 93.21 3.17 24.56 74.89 15.66 24.37
Oct : 17.80 94.21 3.17 24.56 74.84 16.66 23.67
Russia Sep : 7.10 48.00 0.50 17.50 41.50 4.50 9.60
Oct : 6.40 49.00 0.50 17.50 41.50 5.50 8.90
Kazakstan Sep : 5.20 12.00 0.02 1.70 5.57 5.00 6.65
Oct : 5.20 12.00 0.02 1.70 5.57 5.00 6.65
Ukraine Sep : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 6.00 5.20
Oct : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 6.00 5.20
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-391-18
World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2000/01
:
World 3/ : 209.54 860.80 102.14 589.53 883.59 105.74 186.75
United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70
Total foreign : 160.69 587.67 99.42 429.70 668.20 49.12 134.05
Major exporters 4/ : 9.77 62.58 3.21 36.43 48.73 19.68 7.15
Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22
Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.57 6.09 4.36 1.11
Canada : 5.67 24.33 2.59 20.50 24.62 3.64 4.33
Major importers 5/ : 31.61 155.71 69.39 162.24 217.94 10.79 27.98
EU-15 : 19.52 107.19 3.03 78.20 102.81 10.05 16.88
Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33
Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.14 36.07 0.02 3.06
Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.72 1.46
South Korea : 0.85 0.47 8.89 7.01 9.25 0.00 0.96
Selected other :
China : 102.72 113.95 2.42 95.38 130.19 7.30 81.60
East. Europe : 4.75 37.01 2.91 30.66 40.99 1.25 2.43
FSU-12 6/ : 3.55 49.49 1.09 29.09 45.69 2.46 5.97
Russia : 0.88 28.20 0.76 15.60 26.78 0.57 2.49
Ukraine : 1.19 12.99 0.07 7.55 10.83 1.45 1.98
:
: 2001/02 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ : 186.75 887.55 100.61 604.67 904.81 101.42 169.49
United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 158.70 217.05 54.98 45.09
Total foreign : 134.05 625.69 98.05 445.98 687.77 46.44 124.40
Major exporters 4/ : 7.15 61.43 4.97 35.77 48.01 18.83 6.72
Argentina : 1.22 18.45 0.03 6.20 8.26 10.11 1.32
Australia : 1.11 11.08 0.00 4.79 6.30 4.55 1.34
Canada : 4.33 22.41 3.87 20.56 24.83 2.52 3.26
Major importers 5/ : 27.98 158.38 67.19 162.53 218.31 5.11 30.13
EU-15 : 16.88 105.71 4.26 77.85 102.29 4.79 19.78
Japan : 2.33 0.21 20.03 15.56 20.18 0.00 2.39
Mexico : 3.06 26.97 8.86 20.27 36.21 0.02 2.66
So
