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Mon May 12, 2008

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WIINIPEG, May 8, 2008 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX) -- Manitoba's exports will expand by 6 per cent in 2008, the best provincial performance after Saskatchewan, and will post an even stronger 9 per cent growth in 2009 according to a Provincial Export Forecast released today by Export Development Canada (EDC). Although not a repeat of last year's double digit growth, Manitoba's performance will be strong enough to be second best in Canada in both 2008 and 2009.

"Despite the current challenges facing the livestock sector, Manitoba's export prospects look positive. Compared to other provinces, Manitoba's diversified export base should act as a partial hedge against slumping external demand," said Peter Hall, Vice-President of Economics and Deputy Chief Economist. "Exports to non-US destinations will continue to be relatively strong - led by shipments of metals and agricultural commodities - with expected increases in sales to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan."

The agrifood sector accounts for 30 per cent of the province's total exports, and EDC expects this industry to increase shipments by 7 per cent in 2008 and 5 per cent in 2009. High crop prices are taking a toll on farm cash receipts for livestock producers, and there appears little respite this year. Moreover, an excess supply of hogs in the North American market has exacerbated the downward price trend. In addition, a US initiative under consideration may cause US packers to shy away from Canadian hogs. Some Canadian producers have reacted by establishing hog farms south of the border, eroding Manitoba's export supply base.

Alternatively, soft commodity prices continue to support export earnings for wheat, coarse grains and oilseeds, in particular. Wheat prices will likely remain relatively high, but an expected rise in global wheat production should soften prices going forward, eroding export gains. But overall, major grain prices are poised to remain above historical levels, and Manitoba exporters stand to benefit from tight global supplies and relatively buoyant demand. The historically high soft commodity prices have also buoyed the province's agricultural and construction machinery exporters. The stronger-than-anticipated demand meant that some farm equipment dealers are already sold out for the 2008/2009 crop year.

Canadian exports are forecast to decline by 2 per cent in 2008 before posting 2 per cent growth in 2009. Nationally, economic growth is forecast to decline to 1 per cent in 2008 with a slight upturn to 2.3 per cent in 2009. Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 3.8 per cent growth rate in 2008 and 2009. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.

EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by nearly 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining, is a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis, and has been named one of Canada's Top 100 Employers for seven consecutive years.

B-roll of Peter Hall's thoughts on Manitoba's exports and the forecast for the oil and gas sector are available at the FTP site provided below. Additional b-roll for forecasts of the Canadian dollar, the Canadian economy, price of oil and other related topics are also available.

FTP site: ftp://relay1.edc.ca

Password: gef2008

The preview folder is for quick viewing. Please use the download folder for higher grade files suitable for television and radio broadcast use.

SOURCE: Export Development Canada

Phil Taylor, Export Development Canada, (613) 598-2904, Blackberry: ptaylor@edc.ca

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