USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - March 10, 2006
Cr Pr 2-2 (3-06)
Crop
Production
National Agricultural Statistics Service
USDA
Washington, D.C.
Released March 10, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of
Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202)
720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
All Orange Production Down 2 Percent
The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2005-06 season is 9.00 million
tons, down 2 percent from the February forecast and 1 percent below
last season's final utilization of 9.11 million tons. Florida's
all orange forecast, at 154 million boxes (6.93 million tons), is
down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 3 percent from the
2004-05 crop. Early, midseason, and navel varieties are forecast
at 76.0 million boxes (3.42 million tons), down 5 percent from the
previous forecast and 4 percent below last season's final
utilization. The Florida Valencia forecast is 78.0 million boxes
(3.51 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up
11 percent from last season's final utilization. If realized, this
will be the first time that Valencia utilized production is greater
than utilized production from early, midseason, and navel
varieties. The reduction in early, midseason, and navel varieties
is based on estimated certifications of fruit utilization combined
with projections of remaining fruit to be processed. February
measurements of Valencia fruit size and drop indicate smaller
projected fruit sizes than last month which are offset by a lower
drop rate than was forecast last month.
California's all orange forecast is 53.0 million boxes
(1.99 million tons), down 2 percent from the previous forecast and
13 percent below last season. Valencia oranges are forecast at
11.0 million boxes (413,000 tons), down 8 percent from the January
forecast and 39 percent below last season's final utilization.
Valencia harvest will begin mid-month for most growing areas.
California conducted an objective measurement survey for the
March 1 Valencia forecast. This survey showed the average number
of fruit per tree is lower than last season, while fruit size is
virtually unchanged. Fruit is generally of good quality but some
splits have been noted. The California navel forecast as well as
Arizona and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward
from January.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the
2005-06 season, at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, is
unchanged from both last month's and last season's yields as
reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The
early-midseason portion is projected to yield 1.52 gallons,
unchanged from last month but down from 1.53 gallons for the
2004-05 crop. The Valencia yield, at 1.66 gallons, is unchanged
from last month but down from the 1.68 gallons last season. All
projections of yield assume the processing relationships this
season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.
This report was approved on March 10, 2006.
Acting Secretary of
Agriculture
Charles F. Conner
Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Carol C. House
Contents
Page
Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts
Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Citrus Fruits
Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . 5
Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . 5
Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . 5
Temples . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops
Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . 4
Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . .13
Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . 6
Information Contacts . . . . . .17
Reliability of Production Data in this Report16
Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . .12
Weather Summary. . . . . . . . .13
Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
by Use, State, and United States, 2004-2005
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/
and :-----------------------------------------------------------
State : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005
----------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons --
:
For Sugar :
FL : 385.0 377.0 34.9 32.4 13,437 12,215
HI 2/ : 21.8 22.4 90.8 90.3 1,979 2,023
LA 2/ : 430.0 420.0 23.8 23.0 10,234 9,660
TX 2/ : 42.7 41.0 37.3 37.7 1,593 1,546
:
US : 879.5 860.4 31.0 29.6 27,243 25,444
:
For Seed :
FL : 21.0 24.0 40.2 38.8 844 931
HI 2/ : 1.4 1.5 33.5 36.0 47 54
LA 2/ : 35.0 35.0 23.8 23.0 833 805
TX 2/ : 1.3 2.0 35.0 24.5 46 49
:
US : 58.7 62.5 30.2 29.4 1,770 1,839
:
For Sugar :
and Seed :
FL : 406.0 401.0 35.2 32.8 14,281 13,146
HI 2/ : 23.2 23.9 87.3 86.9 2,026 2,077
LA 2/ : 465.0 455.0 23.8 23.0 11,067 10,465
TX 2/ : 44.0 43.0 37.3 37.1 1,639 1,595
:
US : 938.2 922.9 30.9 29.6 29,013 27,283
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net tons.
2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2005
Summary."
Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2005-2006
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area : Fresh Production 1/
:-------------------------------------------------------------------
Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : :
:---------------------------------------------: 2005 : 2006
: 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds
:
Jan : 2,245 2,280 1,410 1,785 2,580 2,815
Feb : 2,250 2,285 1,410 1,785 2,425 2,490
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Utilized fresh production.
Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
2003-2004, 2004-2005 and Forecasted March 1, 2006 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Utilized Production : Utilized Production
: Boxes : Ton Equivalent
Crop and State :-----------------------------------------------------------
: 2003-04 : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 : 2005-06
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons -------
Oranges :
Early, Mid & :
Navel 3/ :
AZ 4/ : 300 240 250 12 9 9
CA 4/ : 39,500 43,000 42,000 1,481 1,613 1,575
FL : 126,000 79,100 76,000 5,670 3,560 3,420
TX 4/ : 1,420 1,500 1,300 60 64 55
US : 167,220 123,840 119,550 7,223 5,246 5,059
Valencia :
AZ 4/ : 170 190 200 6 7 8
CA : 11,000 18,000 11,000 413 675 413
FL : 116,000 70,500 78,000 5,220 3,173 3,510
TX 4/ : 230 270 230 10 11 10
US : 127,400 88,960 89,430 5,649 3,866 3,941
All :
AZ 4/ : 470 430 450 18 16 17
CA : 50,500 61,000 53,000 1,894 2,288 1,988
FL : 242,000 149,600 154,000 10,890 6,733 6,930
TX 4/ : 1,650 1,770 1,530 70 75 65
US : 294,620 212,800 208,980 12,872 9,112 9,000
Temples :
FL : 1,400 650 800 63 29 36
Grapefruit :
White Seedless 5/ :
FL : 15,900 3,400 5,000 675 145 213
Colored Seedless :
FL : 25,000 9,400 12,000 1,063 400 510
All :
AZ 4/ : 140 140 100 5 5 3
CA 4/ : 5,800 5,800 6,000 194 194 201
FL : 40,900 12,800 17,000 1,738 545 723
TX 4/ : 5,700 6,600 5,100 228 264 204
US : 52,540 25,340 28,200 2,165 1,008 1,131
Tangerines :
AZ 4/ 6/ : 690 400 500 25 15 19
CA 4/ 6/ : 2,200 2,800 3,100 83 105 116
FL : 6,500 4,450 5,200 309 211 247
US : 9,390 7,650 8,800 417 331 382
Lemons 4/ :
AZ : 3,000 2,400 3,800 114 91 144
CA : 18,000 19,000 19,000 684 722 722
US : 21,000 21,400 22,800 798 813 866
Tangelos :
FL : 1,000 1,550 1,400 45 70 63
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
the completion of harvest the following year.
2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ &
CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ &
CA-75, FL-95.
3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel)
and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in
TX.
4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.
5/ Includes seedy.
6/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2005-2006
(Domestic Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area Planted : Area Harvested
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Acres
:
Grains & Hay :
Barley : 3,875.0 3,269.0
Corn for Grain 2/ : 81,759.0 75,107.0
Corn for Silage : 5,920.0
Hay, All : 61,649.0
Alfalfa : 22,389.0
All Other : 39,260.0
Oats : 4,246.0 1,823.0
Proso Millet : 565.0 515.0
Rice : 3,384.0 3,364.0
Rye : 1,433.0 279.0
Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 6,454.0 5,736.0
Sorghum for Silage : 311.0
Wheat, All : 57,229.0 50,119.0
Winter : 40,433.0 41,367.0 33,794.0
Durum : 2,760.0 2,716.0
Other Spring : 14,036.0 13,609.0
:
Oilseeds :
Canola : 1,159.0 1,114.0
Cottonseed :
Flaxseed : 983.0 955.0
Mustard Seed : 49.0 44.6
Peanuts : 1,657.0 1,629.0
Rapeseed : 2.4 2.0
Safflower : 165.0 160.0
Soybeans for Beans : 72,142.0 71,361.0
Sunflower : 2,709.0 2,610.0
:
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops :
Cotton, All : 14,195.4 13,702.6
Upland : 13,925.0 13,434.0
Amer-Pima : 270.4 268.6
Sugarbeets : 1,294.8 1,238.9
Sugarcane : 922.9
Tobacco : 298.0
:
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils :
Austrian Winter Peas : 42.5 24.5
Dry Edible Beans : 1,659.3 1,562.9
Dry Edible Peas : 808.0 765.9
Lentils : 450.0 439.0
Wrinkled Seed Peas :
:
Potatoes & Misc. :
Coffee (HI) : 6.1
Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1
Hops : 29.5
Peppermint Oil : 76.0
Potatoes, All : 1,107.2 1,084.6
Winter : 20.0 17.7 19.8 17.5
Spring : 68.0 66.7
Summer : 50.6 48.6
Fall : 968.6 949.5
Spearmint Oil : 17.7
Sweet Potatoes : 90.4 87.8
Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop
year.
2/ Area planted for all purposes.
3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2005-2006
(Domestic Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : Yield : Production
Crop :Units:-------------------------------------------
: : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : ------ 1,000 -----
: :
Grains & Hay : :
Barley :Bu : 64.8 211,896
Corn for Grain :" : 147.9 11,112,072
Corn for Silage :Tons : 18.0 106,311
Hay, All :" : 2.44 150,590
Alfalfa :" : 3.38 75,771
All Other :" : 1.91 74,819
Oats :Bu : 63.0 114,878
Proso Millet :" : 26.3 13,545
Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,636 223,235
Rye :Bu : 27.0 7,537
Sorghum for Grain :" : 68.7 393,893
Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.6 4,218
Wheat, All :Bu : 42.0 2,104,690
Winter :" : 44.4 1,499,129
Durum :" : 37.2 101,105
Other Spring :" : 37.1 504,456
: :
Oilseeds : :
Canola :Lbs : 1,419 1,580,985
Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 8,501.0
Flaxseed :Bu : 20.6 19,695
Mustard Seed :Lbs : 787 35,114
Peanuts :" : 2,960 4,821,250
Rapeseed :" : 1,500 3,000
Safflower :" : 1,203 192,545
Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 43.3 3,086,432
Sunflower :Lbs : 1,540 4,018,355
: :
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : :
Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 831 23,719.0
Upland 2/ :" : 824 23,064.0
Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,171 655.0
Sugarbeets :Tons : 22.3 27,654
Sugarcane :" : 29.6 27,283
Tobacco :Lbs : 2,147 639,709
: :
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : :
Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,253 307
Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,742 27,222
Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,828 14,003
Lentils 2/ :" : 1,176 5,163
Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 755
: :
Potatoes & Misc. : :
Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,050 6,400
Ginger Root (HI) :" : 42,500 5,100
Hops :" : 1,791 52,914.5
Peppermint Oil :" : 92 6,980
Potatoes, All :Cwt : 388 420,879
Winter :" : 247 254 4,892 4,440
Spring :" : 281 18,724
Summer :" : 334 16,237
Fall :" : 401 381,026
Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 109 1,933
Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 179 15,747
Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop
year.
2/ Yield in pounds.
3/ Yield is not estimated.
Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2004-2006
(Domestic Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : Production
Crop : Units :--------------------------------------------
: : 2004 : 2005 : 2006
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : 1,000
: :
Citrus 2/ : :
Grapefruit : Tons : 2,165 1,008 1,131
Lemons : " : 798 813 866
Oranges : " : 12,872 9,112 9,000
Tangelos (FL) : " : 45 70 63
Tangerines : " : 417 331 382
Temples (FL) : " : 63 29 36
: :
Noncitrus : :
Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 10,450.6 9,869.6
Apricots : Tons : 101.1 81.4
Bananas (HI) 3/ : Lbs : 16,500.0
Grapes : Tons : 6,240.0 6,974.9
Olives (CA) : " : 104.0 139.0
Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 35,800.0 32,500.0
Peaches : Tons : 1,307.1 1,182.6
Pears : " : 877.3 812.3
Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 49.0 90.0
Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 25.0 8.7
: :
Nuts & Misc. : :
Almonds (CA) (shelled): Lbs : 1,005,000 900,000
Hazelnuts (OR) : Tons : 37.5 28.0
Pecans : Lbs : 185,800 259,600
Walnuts (CA) : Tons : 325.0 355.0
Maple Syrup : Gals : 1,507 1,242
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop
year, except citrus which is for the 2005-06 season.
2/ Production years are 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006.
3/ 2005 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations.
Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2005-2006
(Metric Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area Planted : Area Harvested
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Hectares
:
Grains & Hay :
Barley : 1,568,170 1,322,930
Corn for Grain 2/ :33,087,050 30,395,050
Corn for Silage : 2,395,760
Hay, All 3/ : 24,948,730
Alfalfa : 9,060,600
All Other : 15,888,130
Oats : 1,718,310 737,750
Proso Millet : 228,650 208,420
Rice : 1,369,470 1,361,380
Rye : 579,920 112,910
Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 2,611,870 2,321,300
Sorghum for Silage : 125,860
Wheat, All 3/ :23,160,000 20,282,660
Winter :16,362,830 16,740,810 13,676,090
Durum : 1,116,940 1,099,140
Other Spring : 5,680,230 5,507,430
:
Oilseeds :
Canola : 469,040 450,820
Cottonseed :
Flaxseed : 397,810 386,480
Mustard Seed : 19,830 18,050
Peanuts : 670,570 659,240
Rapeseed : 970 810
Safflower : 66,770 64,750
Soybeans for Beans :29,195,150 28,879,080
Sunflower : 1,096,310 1,056,240
:
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops :
Cotton, All 3/ : 5,744,740 5,545,310
Upland : 5,635,310 5,436,610
Amer-Pima : 109,430 108,700
Sugarbeets : 523,990 501,370
Sugarcane : 373,490
Tobacco : 120,610
:
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils :
Austrian Winter Peas : 17,200 9,910
Dry Edible Beans : 671,500 632,490
Dry Edible Peas : 326,990 309,950
Lentils : 182,110 177,660
Wrinkled Seed Peas :
:
Potatoes & Misc. :
Coffee (HI) : 2,470
Ginger Root (HI) : 50
Hops : 11,960
Peppermint Oil : 30,760
Potatoes, All 3/ : 448,070 438,930
Winter : 8,090 7,160 8,010 7,080
Spring : 27,520 26,990
Summer : 20,480 19,670
Fall : 391,980 384,250
Spearmint Oil : 7,160
Sweet Potatoes : 36,580 35,530
Taro (HI) 4/ : 150
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop
year.
2/ Area planted for all purposes.
3/ Total may not add due to rounding.
4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2005-2006
(Metric Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield : Production
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Metric Tons
:
Grains & Hay :
Barley : 3.49 4,613,490
Corn for Grain : 9.29 282,259,630
Corn for Silage : 40.26 96,443,720
Hay, All 2/ : 5.48 136,612,950
Alfalfa : 7.59 68,738,290
All Other : 4.27 67,874,660
Oats : 2.26 1,667,450
Proso Millet : 1.47 307,200
Rice : 7.44 10,125,770
Rye : 1.70 191,450
Sorghum for Grain : 4.31 10,005,340
Sorghum for Silage : 30.40 3,826,510
Wheat, All 2/ : 2.82 57,280,270
Winter : 2.98 40,799,610
Durum : 2.50 2,751,630
Other Spring : 2.49 13,729,040
:
Oilseeds :
Canola : 1.59 717,120
Cottonseed 3/ : 7,711,980
Flaxseed : 1.29 500,280
Mustard Seed : 0.88 15,930
Peanuts : 3.32 2,186,880
Rapeseed : 1.68 1,360
Safflower : 1.35 87,340
Soybeans for Beans : 2.91 83,998,910
Sunflower : 1.73 1,822,700
:
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops :
Cotton, All 2/ : 0.93 5,164,200
Upland : 0.92 5,021,590
Amer-Pima : 1.31 142,610
Sugarbeets : 50.04 25,087,290
Sugarcane : 66.27 24,750,720
Tobacco : 2.41 290,170
:
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils :
Austrian Winter Peas : 1.40 13,930
Dry Edible Beans : 1.95 1,234,770
Dry Edible Peas : 2.05 635,170
Lentils : 1.32 234,190
Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 34,250
:
Potatoes & Misc. :
Coffee (HI) : 1.18 2,900
Ginger Root (HI) : 47.64 2,310
Hops : 2.01 24,000
Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,170
Potatoes, All 2/ : 43.49 19,090,750
Winter : 27.69 28.44 221,900 201,400
Spring : 31.46 849,310
Summer : 37.45 736,500
Fall : 44.98 17,283,050
Spearmint Oil : 0.12 880
Sweet Potatoes : 20.10 714,270
Taro (HI) 3/ : 1,810
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop
year.
2/ Production may not add due to rounding.
3/ Yield is not estimated.
Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2004-2006
(Metric Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------------------------
: 2004 : 2005 : 2006
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Metric tons
:
Citrus 2/ :
Grapefruit : 1,964,050 914,440 1,026,030
Lemons : 723,930 737,540 785,620
Oranges : 11,677,280 8,266,270 8,164,660
Tangelos (FL) : 40,820 63,500 57,150
Tangerines : 378,300 300,280 346,540
Temples (FL) : 57,150 26,310 32,660
:
Noncitrus :
Apples : 4,740,310 4,476,780
Apricots : 91,740 73,800
Bananas (HI) : 7,480
Grapes : 5,660,860 6,327,520
Olives (CA) : 94,350 126,100
Papayas (HI) : 16,240 14,740
Peaches : 1,185,790 1,072,840
Pears : 795,840 736,930
Prunes, Dried (CA) : 44,450 81,650
Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 22,680 7,890
:
Nuts & Misc. :
Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 455,860 408,230
Hazelnuts (OR) : 34,020 25,400
Pecans : 84,280 117,750
Walnuts (CA) : 294,840 322,050
Maple Syrup : 7,530 6,210
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop
year, except citrus which is for the 2005-06 season.
2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07.
February Weather Summary
Drought stress on pastures and dryland winter grains remained
severe across the southern Plains and the Southwest, and began to
spread northward through the central Plains. Farther north, snow
insulated most of Nebraska's winter wheat from a short-lived but
severe cold wave, while Montana's wheat had only patchy, shallow
protection on February 17-18 from temperatures as low as -30
degrees F. Meanwhile, drier-than-normal weather returned to much
of California and the Pacific Northwest, but abundant February
snowfall maintained favorable prospects for summer water supplies
across the northern Rockies and the interior Northwest. In
contrast, the Southwest continued to brace for minimal spring and
summer runoff, although many reservoirs remained at favorable
levels following the phenomenally wet winter of 2004-05. Farther
east, rain provided additional drought relief from eastern Texas to
the Delta, while drought persisted in the central Corn Belt.
Dryness gradually intensified across the interior Southeast,
including North Carolina, while periodic rainfall eased previously
dry conditions in Florida. However, the Southeast had a mid-month
brush with cold weather, culminating on February 14 in a light
freeze as far south as interior southern Florida. Elsewhere, a
February 11-12 snow storm interrupted an otherwise quiet weather
pattern in the Mid-Atlantic States, while Midwestern conditions
ranged from drier than normal in the Ohio and middle Mississippi
Valleys to frequently snowy in the Great Lakes region.
Sharp temperature fluctuations tended to average out, resulting in
near-normal February temperatures across much of the Nation. On
the Plains, for example, warm spells in early February and again
toward month's end were balanced by a week-long cold snap beginning
in mid-February. Elsewhere, monthly temperatures averaged slightly
below normal across the South and Northwest, but were mostly above
normal in the drought-stricken Southwest.
February Agricultural Summary
After 2 months of above-normal temperatures nationwide, February
was marked by more normal temperatures. Though the central Corn
Belt, northern Great Plains, and Southwest continued to experience
warm weather, below-normal temperatures prevailed across the
Southeast, Mississippi Delta, Pacific Northwest, and northern Rocky
Mountains.
February was a dry month for most of the Nation. Precipitation was
below normal across the Corn Belt, favoring land preparation. In
the Great Plains, however, a continued lack of precipitation was a
serious concern for winter wheat growers. Most northern areas of
the region lacked a protective snow cover due to warm weather in
previous months, leaving the crop exposed to occasional sub-zero
temperatures. Meanwhile, in the southern Great Plains, lack of
rainfall, warm weather, and windy conditions continued to deplete
soil moisture, causing further stress to winter grains.
Elsewhere, the Southwest remained dry throughout the month, with
temperatures averaging above normal. Moderate precipitation and
below-normal temperatures prevailed in the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rocky Mountains. In Florida, freezing temperatures in the
peninsula around midmonth forced the use of irrigation and wind
machines to avoid freeze damage to citrus crops. Field preparation
was active across the Southeast and Mississippi Delta, while some
planting of summer crops had occurred in Texas.
Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for the 2005
crop year is estimated at 27.3 million tons, 6 percent below 2004
but 1 percent above last month. Area harvested and to be harvested
for sugar and seed for the 2005 crop year, at 922,900 acres, is
down 2 percent from the previous year's harvested area and down
fractionally from the February estimate. Yield is estimated at
29.6 tons per acre, 1.3 tons below the 2004 crop but 0.2 ton above
the previous estimate. The U.S. yield and production estimates are
the lowest since 1933 and 1980, respectively.
Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from
January. Florida's harvest was nearly finished by month's end.
Total harvested area in Florida was down 1,000 acres from the
February estimate. The estimated yield in Florida increased by
0.5 ton, more than enough to compensate for the lower acreage
estimate, resulting in a 1 percent increase in production.
Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at
2.49 million pounds for February, 12 percent lower than the
previous month but 3 percent higher than February 2005. Area in
crop totaled 2,285 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but
up 2 percent from last February. Harvested area totaled
1,785 acres, unchanged from the previous month but 27 percent above
a year ago. Late January rains encouraged flowering and growth but
excessive February rains in Oahu and Kauai over-saturated some
fields. Cooler temperatures slowed fruit development and increased
the need for spraying. In Puna, younger fields came into
production and new orchards were planted.
Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2005-06 U.S. grapefruit crop is
1.13 million tons, up 4 percent from the previous forecast and
12 percent above last season's final utilization. Florida's
grapefruit production is forecast at 17.0 million boxes
(723,000 tons), up 6 percent from the February 1 forecast and
33 percent above last year's hurricane-damaged crop. The white
grapefruit utilization forecast, at 5.00 million boxes
(213,000 tons), is up 25 percent from February and 47 percent above
last season's utilization. The colored seedless utilization
forecast, at 12.0 million boxes (510,000 tons), is unchanged from
the February 1 forecast but 28 percent higher than the 2004-05
season's utilization. The primary indicators for the March
grapefruit forecast are the row count survey and estimated
utilization to March 1. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit
forecasts are carried forward from January.
Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast, at 1.40 million boxes
(63,000 tons), is up 17 percent from the February 1 forecast but
down 10 percent from last season's utilized production. Due to
higher processing tangelo prices, a more complete harvest is
anticipated this season than in recent years.
Tangerines: The 2005-06 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is
382,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up
15 percent from last season's utilization of 331,000 tons.
Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 5.20 million boxes
(247,000 tons), unchanged from the February forecast but 17 percent
higher than last season's 4.45 million boxes. Early tangerine
(Fallglo and Sunburst varieties) harvest is virtually complete.
Harvest of the later Honey variety tangerine is underway with
46 percent of the rows harvested. Arizona and California tangerine
forecasts are carried forward from January.
Temples: Florida's Temple forecast for the 2005-06 season is
800,000 boxes (36,000 tons), unchanged from the February forecast
but 23 percent above last season's hurricane-reduced final
utilization of 650,000 boxes. The row count survey showed
40 percent of the rows have been harvested. If realized, this will
be the second lowest utilized production, behind last season.
Florida Citrus: The month of February brought much needed rain to
Florida citrus producing areas. Over 6 inches of rain fell in the
north and at least 2.5 inches were recorded in the other citrus
regions. Temperatures for the month were cooler than normal, with
lows of 29 degrees reported in 4 of the 7 routinely monitored
areas. Even lower temperatures were reported in several other
areas, although of short duration, and no fruit damage was
observed. Trees in all growing areas had begun to form small
flower buds by the end of the month. Grower activities included
fertilizer application, brush removal, and hedging and topping
after harvest. Citrus maturity levels continued to lag behind
normal for the month. Most orange harvest activities focused on
the early-midseason varieties but limited Valencia harvest had
begun. The volumes of grapefruit and Honey tangerine movement had
increased to nearly 800,000 boxes and 150,000 boxes per week,
respectively, by the end of February.
California Citrus: Harvesting of navel oranges, grapefruit,
lemons, mandarins, tangelos, and tangerines continued during
February with good yields reported. Growers applied copper, lime,
and zinc to citrus groves in order to control fungal disease and to
comply with export requirements. Early variety Valencia orange
harvest began but some maturity problems were reported. Citrus
growers were busy running water and wind machines when temperatures
dropped below freezing. Navel demand in the domestic and export
markets was moderate. Puff and rind problems continued to be
problematic in navels resulting in lower than normal pack-outs.
California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: General maintenance
activities were underway during February in many grape vineyards as
growers replaced stakes and trellis wire, pruned vines, and
shredded canes. Several grape growers were busy discing between
rows and applying herbicides to control weeds. Insecticides were
applied to some vineyards to control vine mealybugs. Warm
temperatures at the beginning of the month caused some early
variety fruit trees to prematurely begin pushing buds. Freezing
temperatures followed, raising concerns of crop damage to these
early fruit crops. Early almond trees were starting to bloom at
the beginning of the month. By month's end, most early variety
almond orchards were in full bloom, and later varieties had begun
blooming. A few orchards were treated with fungicides to prevent
blossom rot. The freezing temperatures during the month caused
some damage to early almond varieties but the overall impact
remains to be determined. The cool temperatures also slowed
honeybee activity in almond orchards. Replanting of almond,
walnut, and pistachio orchards continued. New peach orchards were
planted in the San Joaquin Valley. Strawberry plants continued to
show good growth in the San Joaquin Valley, and harvesting began
along the central coast.
Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast
Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March
1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly
75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are
determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census
conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on
administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to
mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In
September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit
droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous
components are used to develop the current forecast of production.
Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on
a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California
also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel
oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for
Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and
consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and
packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for
setting estimates. These 4 States submit their analyses of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The
ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the
published March 1 forecast.
Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be
revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the
Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production
estimates are based on all data available at the end of the
marketing season, including information from marketing orders,
shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded
local utilization and home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the
March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a
statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The
deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final
estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The
average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year
period is computed. The square root of the average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements
can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors
affecting this year's forecast are not different from those
influencing recent years.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production
forecast is 3.2 percent. However, if you exclude the 6 abnormal
production seasons (5 freeze seasons and 1 hurricane season), the
"Root Mean Square Error" is 1.9 percent. This means that chances
are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not
be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.2 percent, or
1.9 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
5.6 percent, or 3.4 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.
Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates
during the past 20 years have averaged 248,000 tons (193,000 tons,
excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 8,000 tons to
713,000 tons (3,000 tons to 503,000 tons, excluding abnormal
seasons). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the
final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above
9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not
imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate
or overstate final production.
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of
the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for
additional information.
Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section
Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127
Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944
Scott Cox - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068
Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed(202) 720-9526
Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice(202) 720-7688
Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369
Travis Thorson - Hay, Oats, Sorghum(202) 690-3234
Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127
Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235
Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas,
Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms,
Peaches, Pears,
Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-2157
Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412
Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215
Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries,
Cranberries,
Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288
Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940
Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285
Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables,
Onions,
Strawberries (202) 720-2157
