USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - November 12, 2002
WASDE-392 November 12, 2002
NOTE: World supply and demand estimates for wheat (see pages 16 and
17) incorporate revised estimates of China's wheat consumption and
stocks. The changes are due to indications that USDA's previous estimates
of China's wheat stocks were too low. The changes reflect information
collected by the U.S. Agricultural Attache in Beijing, trade sources, and
statements by Chinese officials regarding total grain stocks. Internal prices
and trade patterns also strongly suggest stocks are much more abundant
than USDA's previous estimates. Since production and trade estimates are
unchanged, except for higher projected exports for 2002/03, higher stocks
can only be attained by lowering use, specifically non-feed use. Per capita
consumption of wheat is reduced slightly starting in 1990/91, with
marginally stronger reductions from 1994/95 to 2002/03 as rising incomes
led urban consumers to switch to other foods. Estimates of wheat feed use
are raised 2 million tons per year for 2002/03 and the previous 2 years.
Old and revised historical supply and demand estimates for China wheat are
available at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Historical
world wheat supply and demand estimates since 1990/91 reflecting the
China revisions will be released tomorrow, November 13, at 3:00 p.m.
Eastern Time in the Foreign Agricultural Service report Grains: World
Markets and Trade (http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain).
WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are down 13
million bushels from last month due to lower production and smaller
projected imports. Estimated production is revised down 8 million
bushels because of reduced area. Some of the other spring wheat and
durum acres that producers indicated they intended to harvest for grain
during the collection of data for the Small Grains Summary 2002 report
were not harvested for grain. Projected imports are reduced 5 million
bushels from last month. The projected price range is raised 10 cents on
the low end to $3.65 to $3.95 per bushel.
Projected world 2002/03 wheat production is down marginally from last
month as reductions for Australia, Algeria, and Bulgaria more than offset
gains for Kazakstan, Russia, and Afghanistan. The smaller projected
Australian crop results in a 2-million-ton reduction in exports for their
October-September marketing year. However, relatively strong exports
during July-September 2002 result in only a 1-million-ton reduction for
the July-June international trade year. Projected global imports are up
from last month, led by a 2-million-ton increase for the EU. The larger
global imports and reduced Australian exports are offset by higher
projected exports for Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe. Global stocks
are up sharply due to historical revisions in China stocks.
COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are up 84
million bushels from last month due to a 34-million-bushel gain in
production and reduced use. Projected feed and residual use is up 25
million bushels due to lower sorghum feeding. However, exports are
down 75 million bushels because of increased competition. Projected
sorghum exports are 25 million bushels above last month due to
expanding global imports and reduced competition. In addition, forecast
sorghum production is reduced slightly. The smaller crop and expanding
exports are only partially offset by lower feed and residual use, lowering
ending stocks of sorghum 10 million bushels. The projected price range
for corn is down 10 cents on each end of the range to $2.20 to $2.60
per bushel.
Global coarse grain production, trade, and use are down slightly from
last month, but ending stocks are higher. There are numerous
country-specific production changes from last month, highlighted by
larger corn production in Argentina and Eastern Europe, lower corn
production in Brazil, lower Mexico sorghum production, and lower
production of barley in Australia. The larger corn crops result in
expanded corn export prospects for Argentina and Eastern Europe. Plus,
projected exports by China are up 500,000 tons. With global imports up
only slightly from last month, U.S. export prospects are reduced. U.S.
sorghum export prospects are improved because of a sharply smaller
sorghum crop in Mexico and reduced exports (and higher imports) for
Australia. Larger China corn stocks are due to lower projected feed use
in 2002/03 and the previous 2 years because of increased wheat feeding
estimates.
RICE: U.S. 2002/03 rice supplies are projected at a record 264 million
cwt, slightly above last month and 4 percent above 2001/02. Rice
production is forecast at 212 million cwt, fractionally above last month
and 1 million cwt below the 2001/02 record. U.S. average yield for
2002/03 is forecast at a record 6,611 pounds per acre, slightly above
last month and 3 percent above last year. Long-grain production is
forecast at 157.5 million cwt, slightly above last month, but 5 percent
below the 2001/02 record. Combined medium- and short-grain
production is forecast at 54.5 million cwt, unchanged from last month,
but 14 percent above 2001/02.
Exports are projected at a record 100 million cwt, 3 percent above last
month and 6 percent above 2001/02. Exports of rough rice are
projected at a record 35 million cwt, 9 percent above last month and 10
percent above the previous high in 2001/02. Exports of milled rice
(rough-equivalent basis) are projected at 65 million cwt, unchanged from
last month, but 4 percent above 2001/02. Ending stocks, at 39 million
cwt, are down 7 percent from last month, nearly the same as 2001/02,
and the largest since 1986/87. The season-average price range for
2002/03 is raised 20 cents per cwt on the low end to $3.70 to $4.00
per cwt, down from $4.17 per cwt in 2001/02 and the lowest since
1986/87.
Global 2002/03 rice production, imports, exports, and ending stocks are
raised slightly from a month ago. The slight increase in global rice
production is due primarily to a larger crop projected for Vietnam. Rice
imports are raised for the Philippines, Nigeria, and Cote d'Ivoire. Rice
exports are raised for Vietnam, Argentina, and the United States. Global
rice ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 106.1 million tons, up
slightly from last month but 20 percent below 2001/02 and the lowest
since 1987/88.
OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2002/03 are up this
month as increased production is only partially offset by higher use
prospects. U.S. oilseed production, at 82.7 million tons, is up 0.8
million tons this month as a larger soybean crop offsets reductions for
peanut and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at
2.69 billion bushels, up 36 million bushels from last month, based on a
higher average yield.
Projected U.S. soybean stocks are increased 10 million bushels to 185
million bushels as production increases more than use. Soybean exports
are projected at 890 million bushels, up 40 million bushels from last
month due to stronger than expected early-season shipments, especially
to China. However, soybean crush is lowered due to reduced soybean
meal export prospects. Soybean meal exports are lowered 0.4 million
short tons to 6.2 million tons, based on increased meal exports from
South America. Soybean oil ending stocks for 2002/03 are projected at
1,485 million pounds, down 145 million pounds from last month due
mostly to reduced production.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2002/03 is lowered 10
cents on each end to $4.95 to $5.85 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are
raised 0.5 cents on both ends of the range to 19.5 to 20.5 cents per
pound, due to lower projected ending stocks. Soybean meal prices are
projected at $155 to $185 per short ton, down $10 on both ends of the
range.
Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at 321.7 million tons,
up 3.8 million tons from last month. Foreign production is forecast at
238.9 million tons, up 3.0 million tons, based largely on increased
soybean production. Soybean production in Argentina is forecast at a
record 32.5 million tons, up 1.5 million tons, based on increased area
and higher yields. Soybean production for Brazil is raised 1 million tons
to a record 49 million tons, based on higher projected area, especially in
Southern Brazil as producers switch more area from corn. Soybean
production for China is increased 0.8 million tons to 16.4 million tons,
based on higher area. Australian rapeseed production is reduced
200,000 tons to 800,000 tons because of severe drought. Global
oilseed ending stocks are increased 3.4 million tons this month to 32.8
million tons based on larger soybean stocks.
SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal-year 2002/03 is
decreased 503,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Lower
beginning stocks result largely from increased sales ahead of the October
1 imposition of 2002/03 marketing allotments. Beet sugar is decreased
60,000 tons due to lower forecast sugarbeet area and yields. Cane
sugar is decreased 80,000 short tons due to lower projected sugar
recovery from sugarcane in Louisiana. Sugar deliveries for domestic
food and beverage use are lowered 200,000 tons to account for the pre-
allotment sales. The year-ending stocks-to-use ratio is 12.7 percent,
compared with 15.5 percent last month.
For 2001/02, final reporting from processors lowers production and
exports, while revised U.S. Customs data increase imports. Year-ending
stocks are 1.295 million tons, down 363,000 tons from last month's
estimate. Increased sales for domestic food and beverage use in
September more than offset decreased exports. The statistical
discrepancy between total supply and reported uses is 106,000 tons.
The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2001/02 is 12.5 percent, compared
with 16.6 percent last month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast meat production for
2002 and 2003 is little changed this month. Third-quarter 2002 poultry
production is raised due to higher-than-expected slaughter, but lower
eggs set data over the past several weeks point toward slower broiler
production growth in the fourth quarter. Third-quarter broiler exports are
raised to reflect strong shipments to Russia during August. This month,
forecast total egg production is unchanged for 2002 and is raised for
2003. Table egg production is forecast slightly higher, but the gains will
be mostly offset by declines in hatching egg production. Livestock and
poultry price forecasts are little changed this month.
Projected milk production for 2002/03 is raised from last month.
Additional milk production is expected to continue pressuring already
weak product markets and lead to larger CCC net removals of nonfat dry
milk and generally lower product prices. Pressured by weak butter
prices, the Class IV price for 2002/03 is projected to average $10.45
to$11.35 per cwt, and weak cheese prices likely will result in the Class
III price averaging $10.10 to $10.80 per cwt. The all milk price is
projected at $11.65 to $12.35 per cwt.
COTTON: The 2002/03 U.S. cotton projections include lower supplies
and disappearance, with ending stocks unchanged from last month.
Beginning stocks are reduced nearly 200,000 bales, based on final
2001/02 stocks data released by the Bureau of the Census. Forecast
production is reduced about 250,000 bales to 17.8 million bales, mainly
reflecting poor weather in the Southeast. Domestic mill use is also
reduced, due to weaker than anticipated recovery in recent monthly mill
use rates. The export forecast is reduced to 10.8 million bales, down
200,000 bales from both last month and last season. Export sales
currently lag year-ago levels by about 25 percent; however, this month's
reductions in key foreign crop estimates indicate that U.S. sales are
likely to strengthen.
The world supply and demand situation for 2002/03 includes lower
production and consumption compared with last month; trade is revised
down slightly and ending stocks are revised up marginally. With respect
to production, a 1.0-million-bale increase in China's crop and a smaller
increase for Tajikistan are more than offset by reductions in Pakistan,
the United States, Greece, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Brazil, and Cote
d'Ivoire. Similarly, consumption is raised 500,000 bales in China, due to
strong growth in yarn production, but this increase is more than offset
by reductions for the United States, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Egypt, and
others. World trade is reduced 1.5 percent based on weaker demand in
importing countries.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was
prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee
members are listed on page 34.
APPROVED:
JAMES R. MOSELEY
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on December
10, 2002.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report
will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003:
Jan. 10, Feb. 11, Mar. 11, Apr. 10, May 12, June 11, July 11, Aug. 12,
Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11.
Announcing Agricultural Outlook Forum 2003: You're invited to USDA's
79th annual Outlook forum on February 20-21, 2003, in Arlington,
Virginia. The meeting, which attracted 1,400 attendees in 2002, will
provide timely forecasts of farm prospects and insight into major trends
affecting the farm economy. For complete details access
www.usda.gov/oce or send e-mail agforum@usda.gov.
Leading analysts will be on hand to discuss planting, trade, and price
prospects for farm commodities and farm income prospects for 2003.
Meteorologists will discuss the impact of El Nino on global crops.
With a theme of Competing in the 21st Century, the program will feature
the potential for export competition from Central and Eastern Europe,
Brazil, and Asia, as well as progress in bilateral trade agreements and the
WTO. Focus sessions will highlight challenges producers face in the
competitive arena, ranging from the growing complexity and cost of
regulation, to access to markets and information, to dealing with food
safety and changing eating habits.
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WASDE-392-6
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 1,841.45 2,402.54 232.77 1,863.77 538.77
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,862.91 2,401.68 236.11 1,897.75 503.93
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 1,814.41 2,275.47 227.02 1,904.35 371.12
November : 1,812.77 2,316.70 228.24 1,895.05 421.66
Wheat :
2000/01 : 583.85 790.84 102.82 586.50 204.34
2001/02 (Est.) : 578.72 783.06 108.95 584.85 198.22
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 569.77 729.33 100.00 598.16 131.18
November : 569.34 767.55 101.60 595.10 172.46
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 860.05 1,069.91 105.84 880.90 189.00
2001/02 (Est.) : 887.46 1,076.46 101.25 902.73 173.73
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 863.40 1,032.89 101.11 898.47 134.41
November : 861.65 1,035.38 100.38 892.31 143.07
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 397.55 541.80 24.12 396.37 145.43
2001/02 (Est.) : 396.73 542.15 25.91 410.17 131.98
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 381.24 513.25 25.91 407.72 105.53
November : 381.79 513.77 26.26 407.64 106.12
:
: United States
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43
2001/02 (Est.) : 321.79 405.13 83.82 253.85 67.46
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 295.36 368.32 85.75 248.14 34.43
November : 295.86 368.68 84.58 248.27 35.84
Wheat :
2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85
2001/02 (Est.) : 53.26 80.04 26.16 32.72 21.15
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 44.22 67.68 25.86 31.73 10.09
November : 43.99 67.32 25.86 31.73 9.73
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70
2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.71 217.32 45.09
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 244.52 292.38 56.86 212.49 23.03
November : 245.23 293.10 55.59 212.62 24.89
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89
2001/02 (Est.) : 6.67 7.97 2.94 3.81 1.22
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 6.63 8.27 3.04 3.92 1.31
November : 6.64 8.27 3.13 3.92 1.22
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye,
millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).
WASDE-392-7
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: Foreign 3/
Total grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 1,501.63 1,981.64 144.67 1,608.41 461.34
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,541.12 1,996.55 152.29 1,643.89 436.48
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 1,519.05 1,907.15 141.26 1,656.21 336.69
November : 1,516.91 1,948.02 143.66 1,646.78 385.82
Wheat :
2000/01 : 523.09 701.79 73.92 550.19 180.49
2001/02 (Est.) : 525.46 703.03 82.79 552.12 177.07
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 525.56 661.66 74.14 566.42 121.09
November : 525.35 700.24 75.74 563.36 162.73
Coarse grains 5/ :
2000/01 : 586.92 745.20 49.22 665.52 136.30
2001/02 (Est.) : 625.60 759.34 46.54 685.41 128.64
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 618.88 740.51 44.25 685.98 111.38
November : 616.41 742.28 44.79 679.69 118.18
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 391.61 534.65 21.53 392.70 144.54
2001/02 (Est.) : 390.06 534.18 22.97 406.36 130.76
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 374.61 504.98 22.88 403.80 104.22
November : 375.15 505.50 23.13 403.73 104.91
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains
and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed
grains.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
2000/01 : 88.74 134.04 26.59 91.96 42.71
2001/02 (Est.) : 98.37 141.07 29.00 94.12 47.49
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 88.50 135.84 29.91 96.41 39.83
November : 88.14 135.63 29.45 96.22 40.00
: United States
2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.74 8.86 6.00
2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.72 7.43
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 18.07 25.70 11.00 7.90 6.80
November : 17.82 25.27 10.80 7.70 6.80
: Foreign 3/
2000/01 : 71.56 112.92 19.85 83.10 36.70
2001/02 (Est.) : 78.07 114.75 18.00 86.40 40.07
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 70.43 110.15 18.91 88.51 33.03
November : 70.32 110.37 18.65 88.52 33.20
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.
WASDE-392-8
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 313.44 348.54 71.46 254.63 35.68
2001/02 (Est.) : 323.52 359.21 67.97 264.59 36.93
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 317.89 354.11 71.54 267.26 29.34
November : 321.66 358.59 71.83 267.89 32.78
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 175.33 181.46 56.93 175.86 5.35
2001/02 (Est.) : 182.51 187.85 59.98 181.62 5.63
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 185.69 191.20 61.06 185.55 5.53
November : 185.98 191.61 61.32 185.44 5.65
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 89.08 97.23 34.96 88.33 8.38
2001/02 (Est.) : 91.03 99.42 36.64 90.90 7.62
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 91.79 99.08 37.66 92.15 6.40
November : 91.83 99.45 38.05 92.01 6.51
:
: United States
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.07 7.82
2001/02 (Est.) : 89.83 98.30 29.94 50.62 6.88
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 81.94 89.26 23.93 49.63 5.80
November : 82.72 90.01 25.02 49.22 6.00
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 38.22 39.68 7.26 32.02 0.40
2001/02 (Est.) : 38.97 40.40 7.03 33.08 0.29
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 38.38 39.63 6.20 33.15 0.28
November : 38.01 39.32 5.85 33.19 0.28
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 9.51 12.39 1.05 9.65 1.69
2001/02 (Est.) : 9.65 12.81 1.56 9.96 1.30
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 9.59 12.38 1.37 10.03 0.98
November : 9.51 12.28 1.32 10.05 0.91
:
: Foreign 3/
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 228.55 253.85 43.49 205.56 27.86
2001/02 (Est.) : 233.69 260.90 38.03 213.96 30.06
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 235.96 264.86 47.60 217.63 23.53
November : 238.93 268.57 46.81 218.67 26.78
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 137.12 141.78 49.68 143.83 4.95
2001/02 (Est.) : 143.54 147.45 52.95 148.54 5.35
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 147.31 151.58 54.85 152.40 5.25
November : 147.97 152.29 55.47 152.25 5.37
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 79.57 84.84 33.91 78.69 6.69
2001/02 (Est.) : 81.38 86.61 35.09 80.94 6.32
2002/03 (Proj.) :
October : 82.20 86.70 36.29 82.12 5.42
November : 82.32 87.17 36.73 81.96 5.60
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an
Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to
world minus United States.
WASDE-392-9
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : October November
===============================================================================
Area : Million acres
Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.4 60.4
Harvested : 53.1 48.6 46.0 45.8
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 42.0 40.2 35.3 35.3
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 950 876 777 777
Production : 2,232 1,957 1,625 1,616
Imports : 90 108 85 80
Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,487 2,474
Food : 950 928 930 930
Seed : 80 82 86 86
Feed and residual : 304 193 150 150
Domestic, total : 1,334 1,202 1,166 1,166
Exports : 1,062 961 950 950
Use, total : 2,396 2,164 2,116 2,116
Ending stocks : 876 777 371 358
CCC inventory : 97 99 75 75
Free stocks : 779 678 296 283
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 3.55- 3.95 3.65- 3.95
===============================================================================
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use
===============================================================================
Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : :
June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total
===============================================================================
2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876
Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,957
Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941
Domestic use : 467 304 258 95 78 1,202
Exports : 348 216 199 147 52 961
Use, total : 815 520 457 242 130 2,164
Ending stocks, total : 363 230 78 73 33 777
:
2002/03 (projected) :
Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777
Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616
Supply, total 3/ : 973 617 417 319 147 2,474
Domestic use : 465 257 257 101 86 1,166
Exports : 365 275 120 155 35 950
Use, total : 830 532 377 256 121 2,116
Ending stocks, total :
November : 143 85 40 63 27 358
October : 153 87 40 63 27 371
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1.
2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes
imports.
WASDE-392-10
U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : October November
===============================================================================
FEED GRAINS :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.2 98.2
Harvested : 87.7 83.6 84.3 84.3
Yield per harvested : Metric tons
acre : 3.11 3.13 2.90 2.91
: Million metric tons
Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.1 45.1
Production : 272.9 261.7 244.3 245.1
Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6
Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 292.1 292.8
Feed and residual : 159.8 158.9 151.1 151.3
Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 61.1 61.1
Domestic, total : 215.1 217.0 212.2 212.3
Exports : 56.6 54.7 56.9 55.6
Use, total : 271.7 271.7 269.0 267.9
Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.1 23.0 24.9
CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Free stocks : 52.4 44.9 22.9 24.7
Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.2
:
CORN :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 79.6 75.8 78.8 78.8
Harvested : 72.4 68.8 70.5 70.5
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 136.9 138.2 127.2 127.6
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,599 1,599
Production : 9,915 9,507 8,970 9,003
Imports : 7 10 15 15
Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 10,584 10,618
Feed and residual : 5,842 5,874 5,650 5,675
Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,054 2,170 2,170
Domestic, total : 7,799 7,928 7,820 7,845
Exports : 1,941 1,889 2,000 1,925
Use, total : 9,740 9,817 9,820 9,770
Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,599 764 848
CCC inventory : 8 5 5 5
Free stocks : 1,891 1,594 759 843
Outstanding loans : 253 213 200 200
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.97 2.30- 2.70 2.20- 2.60
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing yeabeginning September
1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers.
WASDE-392-11
U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : October November
===============================================================================
: Million bushels
SORGHUM :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.3 9.3
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.5 7.5
Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 51.4 50.7
Beginning stocks : 65 42 59 59
Production : 471 515 387 381
Imports : 0 0 0 0
Supply, total : 536 556 446 441
Feed and residual : 222 211 135 115
Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 45 45
Total domestic : 258 256 180 160
Exports : 237 241 220 245
Use, total : 494 497 400 405
Ending stocks, total : 42 59 46 36
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.95 2.30- 2.70 2.25- 2.65
:
BARLEY :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.1 5.1
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.1 4.1
Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 54.9 54.9
Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93
Production : 319 249 227 227
Imports : 29 24 25 25
Supply, total : 459 380 345 345
Feed and residual : 123 88 80 80
Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172
Total domestic : 295 260 252 252
Exports : 58 27 20 20
Use, total : 353 287 272 272
Ending stocks, total : 106 93 73 73
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.22 2.40- 2.80 2.40- 2.80
:
OATS :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.0
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.1
Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.4 56.8 56.8
Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63
Production : 150 117 119 119
Imports : 106 96 100 100
Supply, total : 332 286 282 282
Feed and residual : 189 148 150 150
Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72
Total domestic : 257 220 222 222
Exports : 2 3 2 2
Use, total : 259 223 224 224
Ending stocks, total : 73 63 58 58
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.59 1.65- 1.95 1.65- 1.95
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers.
WASDE-392-12
U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
(Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : October November
===============================================================================
TOTAL :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 3.06 3.34 3.23 3.23
Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.21 3.21
Yield per harvested : Pounds
acre : 6,281 6,429 6,608 6,611
:
: Million hundredweight
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 39.0 39.0
Production : 190.9 213.0 211.9 212.0
Imports : 10.9 13.2 13.0 13.0
Supply, total : 229.2 254.7 263.9 264.0
Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 121.7 125.0 125.0
Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 94.1 97.0 100.0
Rough : 22.8 31.7 32.0 35.0
Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 62.4 65.0 65.0
Use, total : 200.7 215.8 222.0 225.0
Ending stocks : 28.5 39.0 41.9 39.0
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 69.0
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.17 3.50- 4.00 3.70- 4.00
:
LONG GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70
Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,130
Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.8 26.8
Production : 128.8 165.3 157.4 157.5
Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 186.1 193.5 193.5
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 85.8 88.7 88.7
Exports 8/ : 65.3 73.5 76.0 79.0
Use, total : 141.5 159.3 164.7 167.7
Ending stocks : 11.6 26.8 28.8 25.8
:
:
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62
Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733
Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.7 10.7
Production : 62.1 47.7 54.5 54.5
Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.1 68.9 68.9
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 35.9 36.3 36.3
Exports 8/ : 17.9 20.6 21.0 21.0
Use, total : 59.2 56.4 57.3 57.3
Ending stocks : 15.6 10.7 11.6 11.6
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August
1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type
undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil.
cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported
use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total
rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending
stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports
are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e.,
the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the
quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are
estimated.
WASDE-392-13
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : October November
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS: : Million acres
Area :
Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.0 73.0
Harvested : 72.4 73.0 71.8 71.8
:
: Bushels
Yield per harvested :
acre : 38.1 39.6 37.0 37.5
:
: Million bushels
:
Beginning stocks : 290 248 208 208
Production : 2,758 2,891 2,654 2,690
Imports : 4 2 3 2
Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 2,865 2,900
Crushings : 1,640 1,700 1,675 1,660
Exports : 996 1,063 850 890
Seed : 91 89 87 87
Residual : 78 82 78 78
Use, total : 2,804 2,933 2,690 2,715
Ending stocks : 248 208 175 185
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.35 5.05- 5.95 4.95 - 5.85
:
:
: Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL: :
Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,385 2,360
Production : 18,420 18,898 18,930 18,760
Imports : 73 45 65 65
Supply, total : 20,488 21,820 21,380 21,185
Domestic : 16,210 16,960 17,350 17,400
Exports : 1,401 2,500 2,400 2,300
Use, total : 17,611 19,460 19,750 19,700
Ending stocks : 2,877 2,360 1,630 1,485
Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.46 19.00- 19.50-
: 22.00 22.50
:
: Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL: :
Beginning stocks : 293 383 225 240
Production : 39,385 40,346 39,885 39,470
Imports : 51 110 240 240
Supply, total : 39,729 40,840 40,350 39,950
Domestic : 31,643 33,124 33,500 33,500
Exports : 7,703 7,475 6,600 6,200
Use, total : 39,346 40,599 40,100 39,700
Ending stocks : 383 240 250 250
Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 167.73 165.00- 155.00-
: 195.00 185.00
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices:
soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil,
simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48
percent, Decatur.
WASDE-392-14
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
======================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=====================
: : Estimate : October November
======================================================================
: 1,000 short tons, raw value
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,201 1,658 1,295
Production 2/3/ : 8,770 7,906 8,445 8,305
Beet sugar : 4,680 3,914 4,375 4,315
Cane sugar 4/ : 4,090 3,992 4,070 3,990
Imports 2/ : 1,591 1,539 1,565 1,565
TRQ 5/ : 1,277 1,149 1,245 1,245
Other program 6/ : 238 305 260 260
Non-program 7/ : 76 85 60 60
Total supply : 12,580 11,646 11,668 11,165
:
Exports 2/8/ : 141 108 125 125
Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,130 10,137 9,980 9,780
Domestic food use : 9,998 9,945 9,800 9,600
Other 9/ : 132 193 180 180
Miscellaneous 10/ : 108 106 0 0
Use, total : 10,379 10,350 10,105 9,905
Ending stocks 2/ : 2,201 1,295 1,563 1,260
Private : 1,417 1,082 NA NA
Other 11/ : 784 213 NA NA
:
Stocks to use ratio : 21.2 12.5 15.5 12.7
======================================================================
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical
data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S.
Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on October
Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates
Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected
2002/03): FL 1,980 (2,020); HI 251 (275); LA 1,587 (1,520); TX 174
(175); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ)
with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the
fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available
TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the
re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and
other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products
for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Mostly residual
statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, CCC-owned
sugar.
WASDE-392-15
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : October November
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.38 14.38
Harvested : 13.05 13.83 12.86 12.86
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 632 705 674 665
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.60 7.43
Production : 17.19 20.30 18.07 17.82
Imports : 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03
Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 25.70 25.27
Domestic use : 8.86 7.72 7.90 7.70
Exports : 6.74 11.00 11.00 10.80
Use, total : 15.60 18.72 18.90 18.50
Unaccounted 3/ : -0.48 0.18 0.00 -0.03
Ending stocks : 6.00 7.43 6.80 6.80
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 31.5 34.2 5/
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
5/ Weighted average for August-September 2002. USDA is prohibited by law from
publishing cotton price projections.
===============================================================================
Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of
Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending
stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the
quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing
year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 35.7
percent.
WASDE-392-16
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2000/01
:
World 3/ : 206.99 583.85 101.76 107.04 586.50 102.82 204.34
United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.29 36.30 28.90 23.85
Total foreign : 181.14 523.09 99.31 98.76 550.19 73.92 180.49
Major exporters 4/ : 24.58 171.58 3.44 54.60 111.60 59.74 28.26
Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59
Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 4.00 6.89 15.93 4.63
Canada : 7.70 26.80 0.20 3.70 7.73 17.32 9.66
EU-15 : 12.65 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.23 13.38
Major importers 5/ : 121.27 143.90 50.37 13.40 204.49 2.59 108.46
Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.29 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70
China : 102.94 99.64 0.20 10.00 110.28 0.62 91.88
N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10
Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.45 28.87 2.73 9.99 28.88 2.34 4.84
India : 13.08 76.37 0.44 0.50 66.82 1.57 21.50
FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38
Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40
Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45
Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45
:
: 2001/02 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ : 204.34 578.72 109.07 108.52 584.85 108.95 198.22
United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.26 32.72 26.16 21.15
Total foreign : 180.49 525.46 106.14 103.26 552.12 82.79 177.07
Major exporters 4/ : 28.26 151.79 9.89 54.42 111.24 55.20 23.49
Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55
Australia : 4.63 24.00 0.08 4.00 7.03 16.41 5.27
Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.30 3.20 7.54 16.50 6.49
EU-15 : 13.38 91.73 9.50 47.18 91.93 11.49 11.18
Major importers 5/ : 108.46 140.31 50.24 12.45 203.79 4.12 91.10
Brazil : 0.70 3.25 7.10 0.40 10.15 0.00 0.90
China : 91.88 93.87 1.10 9.00 108.75 1.51 76.59
N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.40 0.31 29.18 0.25 5.78
Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 9.25 1.38 9.08 0.35 1.61
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.84 34.69 1.74 10.94 30.83 4.14 6.29
India : 21.50 68.76 0.03 0.50 61.30 3.00 26.00
FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.59 19.66 68.65 13.80 17.80
Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.55 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.40
Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20
Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.08 2.20 12.64 5.49 3.70
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-392-17
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2002/03 (Projected)
World 3/ :
October : 159.56 569.77 99.01 112.86 598.16 100.00 131.18
November : 198.22 569.34 101.38 115.22 595.10 101.60 172.46
United States :
October : 21.15 44.22 2.31 4.08 31.73 25.86 10.09
November : 21.15 43.99 2.18 4.08 31.73 25.86 9.73
Total foreign :
October : 138.41 525.56 96.70 108.78 566.42 74.14 121.09
November : 177.07 525.35 99.20 111.14 563.36 75.74 162.73
Major exporters 4/ :
October : 24.39 146.50 5.41 58.73 115.53 41.80 18.98
November : 23.49 144.00 7.41 59.23 116.03 39.80 19.07
Argentina Oct : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66
Nov : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66
Australia Oct : 5.18 13.00 0.10 4.20 7.18 8.00 3.10
Nov : 5.27 11.00 0.10 4.20 7.18 6.00 3.19
Canada Oct : 6.49 15.50 0.30 3.70 8.05 9.00 5.24
Nov : 6.49 15.50 0.30 3.70 8.05 9.00 5.24
EU-15 Oct : 12.18 104.00 5.00 50.78 95.70 15.50 9.98
Nov : 11.18 103.50 7.00 51.28 96.20 15.50 9.99
Major importers 5/ :
October : 51.54 140.59 46.40 8.75 204.56 3.43 30.54
November : 91.10 140.29 46.90 10.75 201.03 3.98 73.28
Brazil Oct : 0.90 3.30 6.50 0.35 9.90 0.00 0.80
Nov : 0.90 3.30 6.50 0.35 9.90 0.00 0.80
China Oct : 37.33 92.00 1.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 19.33
Nov : 76.59 92.00 1.00 7.00 106.11 1.50 61.97
N. Africa 6/ Oct : 5.48 11.41 16.50 0.30 28.68 0.20 4.51
Nov : 5.78 11.11 17.00 0.30 29.08 0.20 4.61
Pakistan Oct : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45
Nov : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45
SE Asia 7/ Oct : 1.61 0.00 9.80 1.80 9.75 0.23 1.43
Nov : 1.61 0.00 9.80 1.80 9.70 0.28 1.43
Selected other :
East. Europe Oct : 6.34 31.00 2.20 10.69 31.16 2.82 5.56
Nov : 6.29 30.80 2.25 10.44 30.58 3.35 5.41
India Oct : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 64.05 6.00 28.00
Nov : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 64.05 6.00 28.00
FSU-12 8/ Oct : 17.80 94.21 3.17 24.56 74.84 16.66 23.67
Nov : 17.80 95.75 3.12 24.66 74.93 19.16 22.57
Russia Oct : 6.40 49.00 0.50 17.50 41.50 5.50 8.90
Nov : 6.40 49.50 0.50 17.50 41.50 6.50 8.40
Kazakstan Oct : 5.20 12.00 0.02 1.70 5.57 5.00 6.65
Nov : 5.20 13.00 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.00 7.55
Ukraine Oct : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 6.00 5.20
Nov : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 7.50 3.70
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-392-18
World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2000/01
:
World 3/ : 209.85 860.05 102.47 587.03 880.90 105.84 189.00
United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70
Total foreign : 161.00 586.92 99.75 427.21 665.52 49.22 136.30
Major exporters 4/ : 9.77 62.29 3.21 36.13 48.44 19.68 7.15
Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22
Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.57 6.09 4.36 1.11
Canada : 5.67 24.03 2.59 20.20 24.32 3.64 4.33