USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - January 10, 2003
Cr Pr 2-2 (1-03)
Crop
Production
National Agricultural Statistics Service
USDA
Washington, D.C.
Released January 10, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of
Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127,
office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
All Orange Production Down 1 Percent from December
The U.S. all orange January forecast for the 2002-03 crop is 11.2 million
tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and 10 percent below last
season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast remains
unchanged at 197 million boxes (8.87 million tons), 14 percent less than
the previous season. Abundant rainfall occurred across the State with
some areas receiving excessive amounts. Colder temperatures were more
prevalent than normal. The early and midseason varieties forecast
remains unchanged at 113 million boxes (5.09 million tons) but 12 percent
below last season. Fruit continued to grow in size. However, droppage
is at the second highest level in the current 10-year series. Row count
surveys indicate over 52 percent of fruit harvested, the highest rate of
the previous ten seasons. Florida's Valencia forecast is unchanged at
84.0 million boxes (3.78 million tons) but is 18 percent below last
season. Fruit size continues to increase at an above average rate.
Droppage continues at above average levels.
The all orange forecast for California, at 61.0 million boxes
(2.29 million tons), is 3 percent less than the October 1 forecast but
9 percent higher than last season. Recent rains slowed harvesting of
California Navel oranges but enhanced fruit size. Overall fruit quality
is good. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.68 million boxes
(72,000 tons), is up 6 percent from the October 1 forecast but 3 percent
less than last season's final utilization. Harvest is underway and fruit
quality and size are reported as excellent. Arizona's all orange
utilization is forecast at 450,000 boxes (17,000 tons), unchanged from
the October 1 forecast but 13 percent lower than the previous season. If
realized, it will be the sixth consecutive season of declining
utilization.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2002-03
season is forecast at 1.57 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is
unchanged from last month's projection. The early and midseason portion
is projected at 1.52 gallons per box and the late season Valencia oranges
at 1.67 gallons. These projections are very similar to last season's
final estimates. All projections of yield assume that the processing
relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several
years.
This report was approved on January 10, 2003.
Acting Secretary of
Agriculture
James R. Moseley
Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Rich Allen
Contents
Page
Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
Hay Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
U.S. Weather Maps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production
by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2001-2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area : :
Seasonal :---------------------------: Yield : Production
Group : Planted : Harvested : :
and :-------------------------------------------------------------------
State : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 Acres ------ --- Cwt --- ------ 1,000 Cwt -----
:
Winter :
CA : 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 270 270 2,790 2,430 2,430
FL : 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.5 265 265 1,325 1,776 1,723
:
Total : 15.8 15.6 15.7 15.5 268 268 4,115 4,206 4,153
:
Spring 1/ :
AZ : 7.8 7.8 270 2,214 2,106
CA : 19.0 19.0 405 6,045 7,695
FL : 27.0 26.3 300 7,970 7,883
Hastings: 19.5 19.0 315 5,940 5,985
Other FL: 7.5 7.3 260 2,030 1,898
NC : 21.5 21.0 170 3,515 3,570
TX : 12.5 12.0 170 2,070 2,040
:
Total : 87.8 86.1 271 21,814 23,294
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ 2002 revised.
Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2001-2002
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area : Fresh Production 1/
:-------------------------------------------------------------------
Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : :
:---------------------------------------------: 2001 : 2002
: 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds
:
Nov : 2,710 2,155 1,920 1,495 4,330 4,055
Dec : 2,575 2,075 1,825 1,495 3,225 3,685
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Utilized fresh production.
Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
2000-2001, 2001-2002 and Forecasted January 1, 2003 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Utilized Production : Utilized Production
: Boxes : Ton Equivalent
Crop and State :-----------------------------------------------------------
: 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 2002-03
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons -------
Oranges :
Early Mid & :
Navel 3/ :
AZ : 480 270 200 18 10 8
CA : 35,500 34,000 40,000 1,331 1,275 1,500
FL : 128,000 128,000 113,000 5,760 5,760 5,085
TX : 2,000 1,530 1,500 85 65 64
US : 165,980 163,800 154,700 7,194 7,110 6,657
Valencia :
AZ : 420 250 250 16 9 9
CA : 19,000 22,000 21,000 713 825 788
FL : 95,300 102,000 84,000 4,288 4,590 3,780
TX : 235 210 180 10 9 8
US : 114,955 124,460 105,430 5,027 5,433 4,585
All :
AZ : 900 520 450 34 19 17
CA : 54,500 56,000 61,000 2,044 2,100 2,288
FL : 223,300 230,000 197,000 10,048 10,350 8,865
TX : 2,235 1,740 1,680 95 74 72
US : 280,935 288,260 260,130 12,221 12,543 11,242
Temples :
FL : 1,250 1,550 1,400 56 70 63
Grapefruit :
White Seedless 4/ :
FL : 18,700 18,900 16,000 795 803 680
Colored Seedless :
FL : 27,300 27,800 24,000 1,160 1,182 1,020
All :
AZ : 250 160 100 8 5 3
CA : 6,300 6,000 5,600 211 201 188
FL : 46,000 46,700 40,000 1,955 1,985 1,700
TX : 7,200 5,900 5,600 288 236 224
US : 59,750 58,760 51,300 2,462 2,427 2,115
Tangerines :
AZ 5/ : 650 620 450 24 23 17
CA 5/ : 2,200 2,200 2,500 83 83 94
FL 6/ : 5,600 6,600 5,100 266 314 242
US : 8,450 9,420 8,050 373 420 353
Lemons :
AZ : 3,600 2,800 2,800 137 106 106
CA : 22,600 19,000 23,000 859 722 874
US : 26,200 21,800 25,800 996 828 980
Tangelos :
FL : 2,100 2,150 2,400 95 97 108
K-Early Citrus 7/ :
FL : 40 30 2 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
the completion of harvest the following year.
2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ &
CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90;
tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95.
3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel)
and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX.
4/ Includes seedy.
5/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
6/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and
Honey varieties; 2002-03 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties
only.
7/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States,
December 1 and May 1, 2000-2002
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Dec 1 : May 1
State :---------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Tons
:
AL : 1,000 2,100 1,700 100 650
AZ : 250 223 203 33 28
AR : 2,150 2,280 3,000 270 280
CA : 1,954 1,961 2,235 180 232
CO : 1,770 1,990 1,560 286 535
CT : 82 59 61 21 9
DE : 29 16 10 4 5
FL : 450 510 475 25 90
GA : 950 1,599 1,464 190 350
ID : 2,857 2,568 2,972 265 444
IL : 1,700 1,600 1,400 340 355
IN : 1,629 1,311 1,021 342 287
IA : 4,500 4,300 3,900 700 1,050
KS : 4,500 5,600 4,800 500 1,040
KY : 5,316 4,214 4,085 1,439 943
LA : 415 1,096 709 30 200
ME : 145 137 140 40 25
MD : 525 355 264 61 62
MA : 108 105 90 30 31
MI : 3,460 3,450 2,109 1,000 811
MN : 4,446 4,213 4,759 960 680
MS : 850 1,833 1,631 45 390
MO : 5,392 6,989 6,350 799 1,021
MT : 3,168 3,600 4,019 427 845
NE : 3,500 4,800 3,400 500 1,280
NV : 801 776 881 112 111
NH : 66 50 48 14 9
NJ : 156 90 55 47 15
NM : 600 600 620 75 65
NY : 2,280 2,250 2,236 625 600
NC : 1,300 1,215 785 277 158
ND : 5,212 5,020 4,300 1,120 1,050
OH : 3,390 3,591 1,832 835 551
OK : 3,700 3,300 4,500 450 500
OR : 1,766 1,901 2,550 241 183
PA : 2,800 2,100 2,200 1,200 550
RI : 11 8 9 2 2
SC : 518 448 400 100 110
SD : 8,200 8,235 5,800 1,550 1,900
TN : 3,405 4,140 3,566 804 809
TX : 7,104 7,477 10,803 1,450 1,625
UT : 1,150 1,470 1,200 200 210
VT : 280 288 281 70 87
VA : 2,900 2,384 1,929 745 411
WA : 1,303 1,513 1,620 195 170
WV : 1,144 939 934 276 205
WI : 4,800 4,300 3,600 1,980 1,350
WY : 1,550 1,506 1,250 151 180
:
US : 105,582 110,510 103,756 21,106 22,494
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003
(Domestic Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area Planted : Area Harvested
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Acres
:
Grains & Hay :
Barley : 5,073.0 4,135.0
Corn for Grain 2/ : 79,054.0 69,313.0
Corn for Silage : 7,490.0
Hay, All : 64,497.0
Alfalfa : 23,135.0
All Other : 41,362.0
Oats : 5,005.0 2,098.0
Proso Millet : 450.0 220.0
Rice : 3,240.0 3,207.0
Rye : 1,395.0 286.0
Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,580.0 7,299.0
Sorghum for Silage : 352.0
Wheat, All : 60,358.0 45,817.0
Winter : 41,735.0 44,246.0 29,651.0
Durum : 2,909.0 2,703.0
Other Spring : 15,714.0 13,463.0
:
Oilseeds :
Canola : 1,459.0 1,275.0
Cottonseed :
Flaxseed : 785.0 704.0
Mustard Seed : 191.0 175.0
Peanuts : 1,358.0 1,296.7
Rapeseed : 3.4 3.1
Safflower : 219.0 196.0
Soybeans for Beans : 73,758.0 72,160.0
Sunflowers : 2,585.0 2,205.0
:
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops :
Cotton, All : 13,962.6 12,413.3
Upland : 13,719.0 12,171.0
Amer-Pima : 243.6 242.3
Sugarbeets : 1,427.9 1,361.0
Sugarcane : 1,026.1
Tobacco : 430.3
:
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils :
Austrian Winter Peas : 21.5 11.6
Dry Edible Beans : 1,922.1 1,726.9
Dry Edible Peas : 302.7 279.7
Lentils : 221.0 209.0
Wrinkled Seed Peas :
:
Potatoes & Misc. :
Coffee (HI) : 6.2
Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3
Hops : 29.3
Peppermint Oil : 80.2
Potatoes, All : 1,310.8 1,276.5
Winter : 15.8 15.6 15.7 15.5
Spring : 87.8 86.1
Summer : 63.0 59.9
Fall : 1,144.2 1,114.8
Spearmint Oil : 18.0
Sweet Potatoes : 97.2 83.3
Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop
year.
2/ Area planted for all purposes.
3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003
(Domestic Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : Yield : Production
Crop :Unit :-------------------------------------------
: : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : ------ 1,000 -----
: :
Grains & Hay : :
Barley : Bu : 54.9 226,873
Corn for Grain : " : 130.0 9,007,659
Corn for Silage : Ton : 14.0 104,979
Hay, All : " : 2.34 150,962
Alfalfa : " : 3.19 73,824
All Other : " : 1.86 77,138
Oats : Bu : 56.8 119,132
Proso Millet : " : 12.5 2,755
Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,578 210,960
Rye : Bu : 24.4 6,985
Sorghum for Grain : " : 50.7 369,758
Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 9.5 3,360
Wheat, All : Bu : 35.3 1,616,441
Winter : " : 38.5 1,142,802
Durum : " : 29.4 79,450
Other Spring : " : 29.3 394,189
: :
Oilseeds : :
Canola : Lb : 1,218 1,552,520
Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,419.3
Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 12,569
Mustard Seed : Lb : 705 123,450
Peanuts : " : 2,561 3,320,490
Rapeseed : " : 1,461 4,530
Safflower : " : 1,520 297,980
Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 37.8 2,729,709
Sunflower : Lb : 1,133 2,497,236
: :
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : :
Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 663 17,145.0
Upland 2/ : " : 651 16,496.0
Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,286 649.0
Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.2 27,550
Sugarcane : " : 35.0 35,932
Tobacco : Lb : 2,068 889,632
: :
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : :
Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,414 164
Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,736 29,974
Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,517 4,242
Lentils 2/ : " : 1,200 2,508
Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 457
: :
Potatoes & Misc. : :
Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,370 8,500
Ginger Root (HI) : " : 45,000 14,400
Hops : " : 1,990 58,336.6
Peppermint Oil : " : 85 6,818
Potatoes, All : Cwt : 363 463,214
Winter : " : 268 268 4,206 4,153
Spring : " : 271 23,294
Summer : " : 309 18,486
Fall : " : 374 417,228
Spearmint Oil : Lb : 108 1,942
Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 150 12,498
Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop
year.
2/ Yield in pounds.
3/ Yield is not estimated.
Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003
(Domestic Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : Production
Crop : Unit :--------------------------------------------
: : 2001 : 2002 : 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : 1,000
: :
Citrus 2/ : :
Grapefruit : Ton : 2,462 2,427 2,115
K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 2 1
Lemons : " : 996 828 980
Oranges : " : 12,221 12,543 11,242
Tangelos (FL) : " : 95 97 108
Tangerines : " : 373 420 353
Temples (FL) : " : 56 70 63
: :
Noncitrus : :
Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 9,629.1 8,910.6
Apricots : Ton : 82.5 89.7
Bananas (HI) : Lb : 28,000.0
Grapes : Ton : 6,552.5 7,269.3
Olives (CA) : " : 134.0 90.0
Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 55,000.0
Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,441.4 2,531.7
Pears : Ton : 1,005.8 944.6
Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 150.0 155.0
Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 21.2 15.2
: :
Nuts & Misc. : :
Almonds (CA) : Lb : 830,000 980,000
Hazelnuts : Ton : 49.5 18.0
Pecans : Lb : 338,500 175,700
Pistachios (CA) : " : 161,000 280,000
Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 305.0 275.0
Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,049 1,356
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop
year.
2/ Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003.
3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003
(Metric Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area Planted : Area Harvested
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Hectares
:
Grains & Hay :
Barley : 2,052,990 1,673,390
Corn for Grain 2/ :31,992,360 28,050,280
Corn for Silage : 3,031,130
Hay, All 3/ : 26,101,290
Alfalfa : 9,362,500
All Other : 16,738,790
Oats : 2,025,470 849,040
Proso Millet : 182,110 89,030
Rice : 1,311,200 1,297,840
Rye : 564,540 115,740
Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,876,930 2,953,830
Sorghum for Silage : 142,450
Wheat, All 3/ :24,426,280 18,541,680
Winter :16,889,740 17,905,910 11,999,460
Durum : 1,177,240 1,093,880
Other Spring : 6,359,300 5,448,340
:
Oilseeds :
Canola : 590,440 515,980
Cottonseed :
Flaxseed : 317,680 284,900
Mustard Seed : 77,300 70,820
Peanuts : 549,570 524,760
Rapeseed : 1,380 1,250
Safflower : 88,630 79,320
Soybeans for Beans :29,849,130 29,202,430
Sunflowers : 1,046,120 892,340
:
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops :
Cotton, All 3/ : 5,650,520 5,023,540
Upland : 5,551,940 4,925,480
Amer-Pima : 98,580 98,060
Sugarbeets : 577,860 550,780
Sugarcane : 415,250
Tobacco : 174,130
:
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils :
Austrian Winter Peas : 8,700 4,690
Dry Edible Beans : 777,850 698,860
Dry Edible Peas : 122,500 113,190
Lentils : 89,440 84,580
Wrinkled Seed Peas :
:
Potatoes & Misc. :
Coffee (HI) : 2,510
Ginger Root (HI) : 130
Hops : 11,860
Peppermint Oil : 32,460
Potatoes, All 3/ : 530,470 516,590
Winter : 6,390 6,310 6,350 6,270
Spring : 35,530 34,840
Summer : 25,500 24,240
Fall : 463,050 451,150
Spearmint Oil : 7,280
Sweet Potatoes : 39,340 33,710
Taro (HI) 4/ : 170
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop
year.
2/ Area planted for all purposes.
3/ Total may not add due to rounding.
4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003
(Metric Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield : Production
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Metric Tons
:
Grains & Hay :
Barley : 2.95 4,939,580
Corn for Grain : 8.16 228,805,080
Corn for Silage : 31.42 95,235,350
Hay, All 2/ : 5.25 136,950,420
Alfalfa : 7.15 66,972,010
All Other : 4.18 69,978,420
Oats : 2.04 1,729,200
Proso Millet : 0.70 62,480
Rice : 7.37 9,568,990
Rye : 1.53 177,430
Sorghum for Grain : 3.18 9,392,290
Sorghum for Silage : 21.40 3,048,140
Wheat, All 2/ : 2.37 43,992,310
Winter : 2.59 31,101,970
Durum : 1.98 2,162,270
Other Spring : 1.97 10,728,070
:
Oilseeds :
Canola : 1.36 704,210
Cottonseed 3/ : 5,823,490
Flaxseed : 1.12 319,270
Mustard Seed : 0.79 56,000
Peanuts : 2.87 1,506,150
Rapeseed : 1.64 2,050
Safflower : 1.70 135,160
Soybeans for Beans : 2.54 74,290,500
Sunflowers : 1.27 1,132,730
:
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops :
Cotton, All 2/ : 0.74 3,732,880
Upland : 0.73 3,591,580
Amer-Pima : 1.44 141,300
Sugarbeets : 45.38 24,992,940
Sugarcane : 78.50 32,596,960
Tobacco : 2.32 403,530
:
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils :
Austrian Winter Peas : 1.58 7,440
Dry Edible Beans : 1.95 1,359,600
Dry Edible Peas : 1.70 192,410
Lentils : 1.35 113,760
Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 20,730
:
Potatoes & Misc. :
Coffee (HI) : 1.54 3,860
Ginger Root (HI) : 50.44 6,530
Hops : 2.23 26,460
Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,090
Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.67 21,011,030
Winter : 30.03 30.03 190,780 188,380
Spring : 30.32 1,056,600
Summer : 34.59 838,510
Fall : 41.95 18,925,140
Spearmint Oil : 0.12 880
Sweet Potatoes : 16.82 566,900
Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,770
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop
year.
2/ Production may not add due to rounding.
3/ Yield is not estimated.
Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003
(Metric Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------------------------
: 2001 : 2002 : 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Metric tons
:
Citrus 2/ :
Grapefruit : 2,233,490 2,201,740 1,918,700
K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 1,810 910
Lemons : 903,560 751,150 889,040
Oranges : 11,086,700 11,378,820 10,198,570
Tangelos (FL) : 86,180 88,000 97,980
Tangerines : 338,380 381,020 320,240
Temples (FL) : 50,800 63,500 57,150
:
Noncitrus :
Apples : 4,367,690 4,041,780
Apricots : 74,810 81,370
Bananas (HI) : 12,700
Grapes : 5,944,350 6,594,600
Olives (CA) : 121,560 81,650
Papayas (HI) : 24,950
Peaches : 1,107,400 1,148,360
Pears : 912,460 856,880
Prunes, Dried (CA) : 136,080 140,610
Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 19,230 13,790
:
Nuts & Misc. :
Almonds (CA) : 376,480 444,520
Hazelnuts : 44,910 16,330
Pecans : 153,540 79,700
Pistachios (CA) : 73,030 127,010
Walnuts (CA) : 276,690 249,480
Maple Syrup : 5,240 6,780
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop
year.
2/ Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003.
3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
December Weather Summary
An El Nio-driven weather pattern featured heavy precipitation in the
West Coast States and across the South, but mild, mostly dry weather from
the northern half of the Plains to the upper Great Lakes region.
Although precipitation aided winter grains and boosted high-elevation
snow packs across northern California and the Northwest, mostly dry
weather persisted in drought-affected areas from the Southwest to the
central Rockies. Meanwhile, mild weather on the Plains benefited the
dormant winter wheat crop. Rain and snow boosted soil moisture reserves
on the southern Plains, but dry weather depleted soil moisture and left
wheat exposed to potential weather extremes on the northern and central
High Plains. In the Corn Belt, mild, dry weather favored off-season
fieldwork across the upper Midwest, while rain and snow replenished soil
moisture from the Ohio Valley to the lower Great Lakes region.
Persistent rains across the South caused fieldwork delays, triggered
lowland flooding, and left some winter grains in standing water.
Meanwhile, rain and snow eradicated lingering long-term drought in the
Atlantic Coast States.
Below-normal temperatures were confined to the South and East, where
readings averaged as much as 5 degrees F below normal. In contrast,
warmer-than-normal weather prevailed from the Northwest to the upper
Midwest, boosting temperatures as much as 10 degrees F above normal.
Little or no moisture accompanied the mild weather across the northern
Plains and upper Midwest, but at least 8 to 12 inches of precipitation
soaked many locations in northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the
central part of Florida's peninsula, and areas from eastern Texas to the
southern Appalachians.
December Crop Summary
A stormy weather pattern developed in the Pacific Northwest, delivering
frequent rain to low-lying coastal areas and significant snowfall to
coastal mountain ranges. Precipitation was much lighter in the mountains
and valleys of the interior Pacific Northwest, but precipitation was
above-normal in many areas and well above-normal in some areas. The wet
weather pattern eliminated drought conditions along the coast and
significantly reduced moisture shortages along the foothills of the
coastal ranges. In the interior valleys, topsoil and subsoil moisture
supplies improved, but long-term moisture deficits remained moderate to
severe.
The storms bypassed the northern and central Great Plains, leaving little
moisture for parched soils and virtually no snow to protect winter wheat
fields from potentially damaging cold temperatures. However, strong root
development and abnormally warm weather reduced the threat of heaving and
winter kill, despite the lack of a protective layer of snow.
Storms repeatedly redeveloped over the southern Great Plains and spread a
variety of severe weather north and eastward across the Mississippi
Delta, Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Atlantic Coast States. One
early-month storm produced a mixture of wintery precipitation that
limited fieldwork and delayed cotton harvest in the southern Great Plains
and lower Mississippi Valley. Above-normal temperatures and
precipitation produced vigorous winter wheat growth and supplied adequate
forage for livestock in Texas.
The Southeast received frequent, widespread precipitation, but heavy
rainfall was scattered and harvest and fieldwork delays were usually
brief. In Florida, rain interrupted vegetable planting and picking and
reduced the quality of some crops. Heavy rain also saturated citrus
groves, forcing producers with bedded trees to pump excessive water from
their groves.
Wet weather also frequently interrupted field and orchard work in
California's central and northern valleys, but the moisture, combined
with above-normal temperatures, contributed to vigorous crop growth. In
addition, heavy snow boosted irrigation reserves in the Sierra Mountains.
Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation prevailed in the
Corn Belt. Soil moisture supplies were adequate, however, and afternoon
temperatures were warm enough to support vegetative growth and root
development of winter wheat in the eastern Corn Belt early in the month.
However, above-ground growth was mostly undetectable.
Winter Potatoes: Production for 2003 is forecast at 4.15 million cwt,
down 1 percent from a year ago but 1 percent above 2001. Harvested
acreage in the two winter potato States (California and Florida) is
estimated at 15,500 acres, down 1 percent from 2002, while the average
yield is forecast at 268 cwt per acre, the same as last year. Harvest is
underway in California's Kern County and will move south as the season
progresses. In Florida, fall rains slowed some planting but most fields
were planted on schedule.
Spring Potatoes: Production for 2002 is revised to 23.3 million cwt, up
7 percent from both the May forecast and last year. Harvested area
totaled 86,100 acres, up 13 percent from last year, while the average
yield of 271 cwt per acre decreased 15 cwt from a year ago.
Spring potato production in California jumped 27 percent from a year ago
to 7.70 million cwt on the strength of increased acreage and higher
average yield. North Carolina's crop of 3.57 million cwt gained
2 percent from 2001. Florida and Texas are each down 1 percent and
Arizona's potato production is 5 percent below a year ago.
Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.69 million
pounds for December, down 9 percent from last month but 14 percent above
last year. Area in crop totaled 2,075 acres, down 4 percent from
November and 19 percent below last December. Harvested area totaled
1,495 acres, unchanged from last month but 18 percent less than
December 2001. December weather conditions were mostly favorable over
major papaya production areas. Soil moisture was adequate in
non-irrigated orchards.
Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2002-03 U.S. grapefruit crop is
2.12 million tons, down 1 percent from the December 1 forecast and
13 percent less than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit
forecast is unchanged at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons). If
realized, Florida's utilized production will be 14 percent below last
season and the smallest since the 35.6 million boxes harvested in the
1989-90 freeze affected season. The all white grapefruit forecast is
16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), 15 percent below last season. The
colored grapefruit utilization is forecast at 24.0 million boxes
(1.02 million tons), 14 percent less than the previous season. Compared
to the previous 10 season series, this year's fruit size is exceeded only
by the extremely large sizes in the 1995-96 season. Droppage is slightly
less than the 10-year season average.
Grapefruit production in Texas is unchanged from the October 1 forecast
of 5.60 million boxes (224,000 tons) but is down 5 percent from last
season's utilized production. Harvest is underway. Fruit quality and
size are reported as excellent. California's grapefruit production is
forecast at 5.60 million boxes (188,000 tons), 10 percent lower than the
October 1 forecast and down 7 percent from last season. Harvest is
underway and the crop is reported in good condition. The Arizona
grapefruit forecast remains at 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), 37 percent
less than last season's utilization. Harvest is underway with large
fruit sizes and fair quality being reported.
Lemons: The 2002-03 U.S. lemon crop is 980,000 tons, up 18 percent from
last season. California production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes
(874,000 tons), 21 percent above the 2001-02 season. Harvest is underway
in all areas of the State. Fruit quality is good. The 2002-03 Arizona
lemon forecast is 2.80 million boxes (106,000 tons), unchanged from both
the previous forecast and last season. Harvest is just underway.
Quality is mostly good but some wind-scarring has occurred. Average
fruit size is larger than last season.
Tangelos: Florida's 2002-03 tangelo forecast is unchanged at 2.40
million boxes (108,000 tons). This is 12 percent more than last season's
utilized production. Average fruit size is the second largest of the
10 season series and loss from droppage is expected to be below average,
similar to the December 1 forecast. If the forecast is realized, it will
be the largest crop of the past three seasons.
Tangerines: The 2002-03 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 353,000 tons,
up 1 percent from the December 1 forecast but down 16 percent from last
season's utilization of 420,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop forecast,
at 5.10 million boxes (242,000 tons), is down 2 percent from last month
and 23 percent lower than last season's utilization. Harvest of Fallglo
and Sunburst tangerines is almost complete. Harvest of Honey tangerines
has just begun. Fruit size is above the 10-season average but much
smaller than the record large size of last season. The 2002-03 Florida
tangerine forecast only includes the Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey
tangerines. It does not include the Robinson and Dancy varieties as in
previous seasons. This program change was implemented because of the
declassification of Robinson and Dancy tangerines by the Florida Citrus
Commission.
California's tangerine forecast is 2.50 million boxes (94,000 tons), up
9 percent from the October 1 forecast and 14 percent above last season's
utilization. There are no reports of any major problems. Shape is
normal and fruit quality was reported as very good. Arizona's tangerine
forecast remains unchanged at 450,000 boxes (17,000 tons) but is 27
percent below last season's utilized production. Harvest is off to a
good start.
Temples: Florida's Temples are forecast at 1.40 million boxes
(63,000 tons) for the 2002-03 season, unchanged from December but
10 percent below last season. If realized, this forecast would equal the
freeze affected 1989-90 crop as the second smallest on record. Average
fruit size continues to be the largest in the 10 season series. Fruit
per tree is down and droppage is projected to be slightly above average.
K-Early Citrus: K-Early citrus has been dropped from the citrus
estimation program. This fruit type has been declassified by the Florida
Citrus Commission and forecasts have ceased.
Florida Citrus: December was a very wet and cold month in Florida.
Rainfall averaged two to four times the normal rate. Caretakers were
busy discing and deep plowing grove middles to help drain excess water
away from tree root systems. Pumps were also utilized to drain ditches
and canals away from groves. Low temperatures were in the mid to upper
30's during early December. During the latter part of the month, low
temperatures were in the 40's. There was no damage to citrus trees or
fruit.
Fresh fruit harvesting crews were very busy on dry days picking citrus
for the Christmas markets and for fund raising projects. Virtually all
of the processors were busy trying to process the field run fruit on the
same day delivered. Caretakers were mowing and chopping cover crops for
fire prevention. Dead trees continue to be removed and burned. A few
resets were planted in the southern districts. Some spraying was applied
to late season crops.
Texas Citrus: Harvest is underway for most citrus. Frequent rains in
the last several months have helped production but did slow harvest on
occasion. Fruit quality and size have been excellent this season.
California Citrus: Picking of navel oranges continued throughout
December. Rainfall and cool night temperatures helped increase fruit
size and enhance exterior color and maturity. Pummelo and Oroblanco
grapefruit harvests were active in the desert. Picking of lemons was
active in the desert, central valley, and south coast areas. Harvest of
Satsuma, Mineola, and Fairchild tangerines was active during December.
California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities such
as pruning, grafting, brush shredding, cultivating, and dormant spraying
continued in orchards and vineyards. Some older variety trees and vines
have been removed in preparation for planting replacements. Strong winds
and rain during the middle of December contributed to some fruit and nut
tree loss in parts of the State. Late picking of Crimson and Emperor
table grapes neared completion in the southern areas of the State by the
middle of December. Warm, dry weather allowed a few strawberry growers
in Fresno and Tulare counties to continue harvesting for local roadside
stand sales. Olives were harvested for oil production. Blueberry
plantings showed vigorous growth. Fuya and Hachiya persimmons were
picked. Walnut orchards were treated for weed control. Almond stockpile
hulling was completed by month's end.
Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay stored on farms totaled
104 million tons on December 1, 2002, down 6 percent from the previous
year. Disappearance of hay from May 2002 - December 2002 totaled
69.7 million tons, compared to 25.1 million tons for the same period a
year ago. Disappearance is up from last year, due to dry spring and
summer conditions limiting pasture and extending the hay feeding period
in the nothern and central Great Plains, Southeast, and Rocky Mountain
States.
Thirty-three of the 48 reporting States had lower hay stocks than last
year. Most of the States reporting a decrease in stocks compared to last
year were located in the western Corn Belt, central Rocky Mountains,
northern and central Great Plains, and the Southeast. Stocks were
significantly higher in Oklahoma and Texas, mainly due to a sharp
increase in production during 2002.
Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast
Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1
forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the
U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the
number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit
size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the
current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct
grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January,
April, and July.
Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida
oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with
historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,
California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four
States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural
Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State
analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast.
Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised.
A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season.
End-of-season estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits
Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the
end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders,
shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local
utilization and home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the
January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a
statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The
deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final
estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average
of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is
computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root
Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning
expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final
end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast
is 6.0 percent. However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the
"Root Mean Square Error" is 4.3 percent. This means that chances are two
out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be
above or below the final estimates by more than 6.0 percent, or
4.3 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
10.4 percent, or 7.5 percent excluding freeze seasons.
Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates
during the past 20 years have averaged 419,000 tons (371,000 tons,
excluding freezes), ranging from 16,000 tons to 1.13 million tons
(16,000 tons to 739,000 tons, excluding freezes). The January 1 forecast
for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times
(below 4 times and above 11 times, excluding freeze seasons). The
difference does not imply that the January 1 forecasts this year are
likely to understate or overstate final production.
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the
National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional
information.
Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section
Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127
Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944
Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369
Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068
Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526
Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234
Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum,
Sugar Crops (202) 720-8140
Mark E. Miller - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621
Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127
Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285
Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412
Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas,
Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,
Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250
Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,
Tobacco (202) 720-7235
Terry O'Connor - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries,
Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288
Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940
Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215
Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,
Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on
February 11, 2003.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits
discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national
origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual
orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases
apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require
alternative means for communication of program information (braille,
large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at
202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).
To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of
Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW,
Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA
is an equal opportunity provider and employer.
