USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - September 12, 2002
WASDE-390 September 12, 2002
WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are down 60
million bushels from last month due to expanding use and lower
imports. Projected imports are reduced 20 million bushels due to the
extremely tight supplies of spring wheat in Canada. However, the
smaller spring wheat imports are partially offset by projected imports of
7 million bushels of feed wheat. Projected exports are up 50 million
bushels from last month because of reduced competition, while
projected food use is down 10 million bushels. The lower food use
reflects recently released mill grind estimates by the Bureau of the
Census. The projected price range is up 25 cents on each end to
$3.45 to $4.05 per bushel.
Global wheat production is little changed in aggregate, but numerous
country-specific changes will have a dramatic impact on trade
patterns. Combined production of the major foreign exporters
(Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU) is reduced 10.8 million
tons from last month due to droughts in Canada and Australia and
prolonged rains and flooding in parts of the EU (largely Germany).
While the lower EU production will not have an impact on expected EU
exports and is partially offset by increased imports, projected EU
ending stocks are down about 4 million tons from last month. The
smaller prospective production in Canada and Australia is projected to
reduce their combined exports 8 million tons from last month and 13.5
million tons from last year. The lower exports for these countries are
offset by reduced global imports and expanding exports by the United
States, Russia, Ukraine, and India. Combined exports are up 4 million
tons for Russia and Ukraine due to their expanding supplies
(production is up more than 10 million tons from last month) and the
tight supplies in the major exporters. Projected global ending stocks
are down 3 million tons from last month as reductions in the major
exporters and China more than offset gains in Russia and Ukraine.
COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are
down 37 million bushels from last month due to lower forecast
production. Total use is unchanged from last month. The projected
corn price range is up 5 cents on each end to $2.35 to $2.75 per
bushel.
Projected 2002/03 global coarse grain production is down slightly from
last month as reductions for Canada, Australia, and the EU more than
offset increases for Russia, Ukraine, and Argentina. With coarse grain
production in Canada down 3.6 million tons (largely barley and corn),
projected corn imports by Canada are up 2.5 million tons to 4.5 million
tons. Projected imports are also up for Mexico. Although the larger
imports by Mexico and Canada will come from the United States,
projected U.S. corn exports are unchanged because of increased
competition from China, Argentina, and Brazil in other import markets.
Projected global 2002/03 global coarse grain ending stocks are little
changed from last month as gains for Russia and Ukraine offset lower
stocks in the EU and China.
RICE: U.S. 2002/03 rice supplies are projected at a record 258.5
million cwt, about 1 percent above both last month and 2001/02. Rice
production is forecast at 206.3 million cwt, virtually unchanged from
last month, but 3 percent below the record 2001/02 crop. Harvested
area is estimated at 3.207 million acres, 20,000 acres below last
month and 3 percent below 2001/02, while the average yield, at a
record 6,432 pounds per acre, is 39 pounds above last month, and 3
pounds per acre above last year. Long-grain production is forecast at
153.2 million cwt, down 2.3 million from last month and 7 percent
below 2001/02. Combined medium and short-grain production is
forecast at 53.0 million cwt, up 5 percent from last month and 11
percent above 2001/02.
According to the Rice Stocks report released on August 28, August 1
rice stocks are estimated at 39.0 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis),
6 percent above last month's forecast and 37 percent above 2000/01.
NASS estimates rough rice stocks at 31.8 million cwt and milled rice
stocks at 4.9 million cwt. Domestic and residual use for 2002/03 is
reduced slightly from last month based on a lower seed use forecast.
U.S. rice exports for 2002/03 are projected at 95 million cwt, 3 percent
above last month and the same as 2001/02. Rough rice exports are
increased to 31 million cwt while milled exports (rough-equivalent
basis) are unchanged at 64 million cwt. Ending stocks in 2002/03 are
projected at 37.5 million cwt, down 1 million cwt from last month and 4
percent below the revised 2001/02 estimate. The season-average
price projection is lowered 40 cents per cwt on each end to $3.85 to
$4.35 per cwt compared to $4.17 in 2001/02.
Global 2002/03 rice production, consumption, and stocks are lowered
from last month while trade is nearly unchanged. The 3.5-million-ton
decrease in global rice production is due primarily to smaller crops
projected for India, Cambodia, Brazil, Australia, and Venezuela.
India's 2002/03 rice crop is projected at 78 million tons, 2 percent
below last month, 15 percent below 2001/02, and the smallest crop
since 1992/93. Global rice ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at
105.1 million tons, 7 percent below last month, 20 percent below
2001/02, and the lowest stocks since 1987/88.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2002/03 are projected at
5.4 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from last month as larger
production more than offsets increased use. Soybean production is
forecast at 2,656 million bushels, 28 million bushels above last month,
as improved yield prospects more than offset reduced area.
Production forecasts for peanuts and cottonseed are decreased
slightly this month. U.S. soybean export prospects are increased 30
million bushels to 850 million bushels due to increased supplies.
Soybean crush is reduced slightly this month due to lower projected
domestic use of soybean meal and increased crush in South America.
Soybean ending stocks are increased 5 million bushels to 160 million
bushels, but remain the lowest since 1996/97. Soybean oil ending
stocks for 2002/03 are reduced sharply this month mostly due to
smaller beginning stocks. Soybean oil exports are raised for 2001/02
and ending stocks are lowered.
U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2002/03 are projected at
$5.15 to $6.05 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal
prices are forecast at $170 to $200 per ton, also unchanged. Soybean
oil prices are increased to 19.00 to 22.00 cents a pound as global
vegetable oil stocks are further reduced from last month.
Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at 319.1 million
tons, down 0.9 million tons from last month. U.S. oilseed production is
forecast at 82.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month.
Foreign production is reduced 1.4 million tons to 236.5 million tons.
Rapeseed production is reduced this month for Canada and Australia
as drought cut production prospects. EU rapeseed production is also
reduced this month as wet weather during harvest has reduced yield
prospects. Peanut production is reduced 1 million tons this month
because of dry weather in India and Senegal. Projected
sunflowerseed production is increased for Russia and Ukraine based
on increased harvested area. Argentina's projected soybean
production is up 1 million tons as yield prospects improve. Declines in
high oil content seed production will contribute to tighter global supply
and use balances for vegetable oils.
SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2002/03 is
increased this month as higher production more than offsets reduced
beginning stocks. Beet sugar production is increased 100,000 tons,
raw value, based on higher forecast harvested area and sugarbeet
yields, mainly in Minnesota and North Dakota. Cane sugar production
is decreased 20,000 tons due to lower forecast sugarcane yields in
Florida. The year-ending stocks-to-use ratio is 15.4 percent,
compared with 15.0 percent last month.
For 2001/02, sugar production is decreased 51,000 tons based on
reduced expectations for summer production and company-reported
revisions for sugar production. Imports are increased 5,000 tons due
to smaller estimated shortfall in filling the tariff-rate quota. Total non-
program imports are unchanged, although a 10,000-ton reduction in
sugar from molasses imports (USHTS 1703103000) offsets a similar
increase in high-tier imports from Mexico. The year-ending stocks-to-
use ratio is 16.7 percent, compared with 17.2 percent last month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast meat production is
raised for 2002 on higher red meat and poultry production. Production
also is raised for 2003 as higher expected beef production more than
offsets lower pork production. Commercial beef production for 2002
are forecast to reach a record 27 billion pounds. Although cattle
placements and marketings are little changed from last month, 2002
and 2003 beef production forecasts are raised due to continued weight
gains for fed cattle. The pork production forecast for 2002 is raised as
third-quarter slaughter has been higher than expected. However,
rising grain prices and recent declines in hog prices are expected to
result in lower pork production in second-half 2003 than forecast last
month. The September 27 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will provide
a further indication of producer farrowing intentions for much of 2003.
Forecast broiler production is raised for 2002 as second and third-
quarter production have been higher than expected. Turkey
production forecasts are little changed from last month.
Price forecasts for cattle, hogs, and poultry for 2002 are lowered from
last month as meat supplies are forecast larger. First-half 2003 cattle
and hog prices are lowered as well, but poultry price forecasts are
unchanged.
Red meat exports are forecast higher than last month because of
larger supplies and lower prices. Broiler exports in 2002 are forecast
higher as June exports were higher than expected.
The dairy production forecast for 2001/02 is unchanged from last
month. Although higher grain prices and uneven forage supplies are
limiting growth in milk yields, cow numbers are higher. Milk price
forecasts are little changed. Cheese prices remain weak, resulting in
a slightly lower Class III price. Class IV and all milk prices are
unchanged.
Forecast 2002/03 milk production is reduced this month as higher
grain prices are expected to further slow growth in milk yields.
However, growth in demand for dairy products remains relatively weak.
Thus, the forecast for Class III milk is reduced to $10.05 to $10.85 per
cwt and the forecast for Class IV is lowered to $10.55 to $11.55 per
cwt. The all milk price is projected lower than last month.
COTTON: This month's 2002/03 U.S. forecasts reflect slightly lower
production and ending stocks. Production is reduced 2 percent to 18.1
million bales. No changes are made in either domestic mill use or
exports. Ending stocks are reduced to 6.7 million bales, down 300,000
bales from last month.
The 2002/03 world supply and demand estimates also feature lower
production and ending stocks. World production is reduced 1 percent,
as reductions for Australia, the United States, Brazil, the African Franc
Zone, and Central Asia are partially offset by an increase for India.
With world consumption and trade nearly unchanged, ending stocks
are reduced 1.5 percent to 39.2 million bales.
The 2001/02 estimate for U.S. domestic mill use is revised based on
preliminary end-of-season data from the Bureau of the Census. The
Bureau's preliminary 2001/02 U.S. ending stocks estimate is under
review; therefore, this month's U.S. stocks are calculated based on the
difference between supply and use. The final stocks survey results will
be released by the Bureau in late September.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World
Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson,
(202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee
members are listed on page 5.
APPROVED:
JAMES R. MOSELEY
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
The next issue of this report will be released 8:30
a.m. ET on October 11, 2002.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern
Time on the following dates in 2002: Oct. 11, Nov.
12, and Dec. 10.
ANNOUNCING AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM 2003:
The U.S. Department of Agriculture will hold the outlook forum
on Feb. 20 and 21, 2003, in Arlington, Virginia. The meeting,
which attracted 1,400 attendees in 2002, will provide timely
forecasts of farm prospects and insight into major trends
affecting the farm economy.
Registration instructions will be available at
www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm shortly. Program details
will be available this fall. To be notified, send an e-mail to
agforum@oce.usda.gov; call 202-720-3050; or write to Outlook
Forum 2003, Room 5143 South Building, USDA, Washington,
DC 20250-3812.
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WASDE-390-6
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 1,839.25 2,368.33 232.63 1,868.07 500.25
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,858.16 2,358.41 232.48 1,896.00 462.41
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 1,821.05 2,291.00 226.79 1,903.88 387.13
September : 1,814.81 2,277.23 226.90 1,903.36 373.87
Wheat :
2000/01 : 583.82 759.22 102.82 590.47 168.75
2001/02 (Est.) : 578.85 747.60 106.47 586.11 161.49
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 572.27 733.61 102.67 594.86 138.75
September : 572.56 734.04 99.89 598.60 135.45
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 857.97 1,067.40 105.70 881.19 186.21
2001/02 (Est.) : 883.04 1,069.25 101.17 899.69 169.56
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 864.38 1,035.18 98.88 900.36 134.82
September : 861.33 1,030.89 101.67 897.60 133.29
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 397.46 541.71 24.11 396.41 145.30
2001/02 (Est.) : 396.27 541.57 24.84 410.20 131.36
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 384.41 522.22 25.24 408.66 113.56
September : 380.93 512.30 25.35 407.16 105.14
:
: United States
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43
2001/02 (Est.) : 321.81 405.14 84.12 252.86 68.16
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 295.45 369.60 84.23 248.53 36.84
September : 294.61 368.26 85.69 248.23 34.34
Wheat :
2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85
2001/02 (Est.) : 53.28 80.05 26.16 32.88 21.01
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 45.89 69.76 24.49 32.55 12.72
September : 45.89 69.22 25.86 32.28 11.08
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70
2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.98 216.20 45.94
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 243.10 291.78 56.86 212.01 22.92
September : 242.26 290.95 56.86 212.01 22.09
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89
2001/02 (Est.) : 6.67 7.98 2.97 3.78 1.22
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 6.46 8.05 2.88 3.97 1.21
September : 6.46 8.10 2.97 3.95 1.17
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye,
millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).
WASDE-390-7
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: Foreign 3/
Total grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 1,499.42 1,947.42 144.52 1,612.71 422.82
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,536.35 1,953.27 148.36 1,643.14 394.25
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 1,525.61 1,921.41 142.56 1,655.35 350.29
September : 1,520.20 1,908.96 141.22 1,655.12 339.53
Wheat :
2000/01 : 523.06 670.16 73.92 554.17 144.90
2001/02 (Est.) : 525.57 667.54 80.31 553.23 140.48
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 526.38 663.85 78.18 562.31 126.03
September : 526.66 664.83 74.03 566.32 124.36
Coarse grains 5/ :
2000/01 : 584.84 742.70 49.08 665.80 133.51
2001/02 (Est.) : 621.17 752.13 46.18 683.49 123.62
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 621.28 743.40 42.02 688.35 111.91
September : 619.06 739.93 44.81 685.59 111.20
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 391.52 534.55 21.52 392.74 144.41
2001/02 (Est.) : 389.60 533.59 21.87 406.42 130.14
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 377.95 514.16 22.37 404.69 112.35
September : 374.48 504.20 22.38 403.21 103.96
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains
and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed
grains.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
2000/01 : 88.74 134.04 26.61 92.01 42.71
2001/02 (Est.) : 98.06 140.77 29.08 94.40 46.85
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 89.41 136.05 30.85 96.74 39.74
September : 88.57 135.41 30.60 96.71 39.16
: United States
2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.76 8.86 6.00
2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.72 7.60
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 18.44 26.06 11.20 7.90 7.00
September : 18.13 25.76 11.20 7.90 6.70
: Foreign 3/
2000/01 : 71.56 112.92 19.85 83.15 36.70
2001/02 (Est.) : 77.76 114.43 18.08 86.68 39.25
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 70.97 109.99 19.65 88.85 32.74
September : 70.43 109.65 19.40 88.81 32.46
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.
WASDE-390-8
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 313.37 348.36 71.04 254.34 35.93
2001/02 (Est.) : 323.25 359.18 68.93 264.81 34.77
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 319.91 353.97 73.11 269.04 26.25
September : 319.06 353.82 71.70 267.03 28.60
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 175.21 181.33 56.79 175.61 5.46
2001/02 (Est.) : 182.53 187.98 59.95 181.74 5.47
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 186.53 191.88 60.83 186.18 5.69
September : 185.62 191.08 60.86 185.40 5.64
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 89.00 97.12 35.02 88.27 8.40
2001/02 (Est.) : 91.11 99.52 36.72 90.98 7.17
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 92.26 99.50 37.68 92.67 6.57
September : 91.88 99.06 37.62 92.25 6.38
:
: United States
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.07 7.82
2001/02 (Est.) : 89.86 98.33 29.99 50.65 6.48
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 81.99 89.05 23.28 50.07 5.35
September : 82.51 89.51 24.03 49.94 5.41
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 38.22 39.68 7.23 32.06 0.40
2001/02 (Est.) : 39.08 40.48 7.17 33.06 0.25
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 38.63 39.99 6.36 33.35 0.28
September : 38.55 39.82 6.34 33.21 0.28
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 9.51 12.39 1.05 9.65 1.69
2001/02 (Est.) : 9.67 12.83 1.56 9.87 1.40
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 9.75 12.74 1.50 10.05 1.19
September : 9.72 12.62 1.51 10.06 1.06
:
: Foreign 3/
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 228.48 253.67 43.07 205.27 28.11
2001/02 (Est.) : 233.39 260.85 38.94 214.16 28.29
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 237.92 264.92 49.83 218.97 20.90
September : 236.54 264.31 47.67 217.09 23.20
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 136.99 141.65 49.56 143.55 5.06
2001/02 (Est.) : 143.44 147.50 52.77 148.69 5.22
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 147.90 151.89 54.47 152.83 5.42
September : 147.07 151.26 54.52 152.20 5.36
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 79.49 84.73 33.96 78.62 6.71
2001/02 (Est.) : 81.44 86.69 35.16 81.11 5.77
2002/03 (Proj.) :
August : 82.52 86.76 36.18 82.62 5.38
September : 82.16 86.43 36.12 82.20 5.32
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an
Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to
world minus United States.
WASDE-390-9
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : August September
===============================================================================
Area : Million acres
Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.1 60.1
Harvested : 53.1 48.7 47.6 47.6
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 42.0 40.2 35.4 35.4
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 950 876 772 772
Production : 2,232 1,958 1,686 1,686
Imports : 90 108 105 85
Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,563 2,543
Food : 950 928 940 930
Seed : 80 81 81 81
Feed and residual : 304 199 175 175
Domestic, total : 1,334 1,208 1,196 1,186
Exports : 1,062 961 900 950
Use, total : 2,396 2,169 2,096 2,136
Ending stocks : 876 772 467 407
CCC inventory : 97 99 75
Free stocks : 779 673 332
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 3.20- 3.80 3.45- 4.05
===============================================================================
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use
===============================================================================
Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : :
June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total
===============================================================================
2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876
Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,958
Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941
Domestic use : 466 308 261 96 78 1,208
Exports : 348 216 199 147 52 961
Use, total : 814 524 460 242 130 2,169
Ending stocks, total : 365 226 75 73 33 772
:
2002/03 (projected) :
Beginning stocks : 365 226 75 73 33 772
Production : 626 407 338 236 80 1,686
Supply, total 3/ : 992 668 420 316 148 2,543
Domestic use : 450 293 257 101 85 1,186
Exports : 350 290 120 155 35 950
Use, total : 800 583 377 256 120 2,136
Ending stocks, total :
September : 192 85 43 60 28 407
August : 217 112 51 60 28 467
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1.
2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes
imports.
WASDE-390-10
U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : August September
===============================================================================
FEED GRAINS :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.4 98.3
Harvested : 87.7 83.6 85.7 85.2
Yield per harvested : Metric tons
acre : 3.11 3.13 2.84 2.84
: Million metric tons
Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.9 45.9
Production : 272.9 261.7 242.9 242.1
Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6
Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 291.5 290.6
Feed and residual : 159.8 157.7 150.7 150.7
Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 61.1 61.1
Domestic, total : 215.1 215.9 211.7 211.7
Exports : 56.6 55.0 56.9 56.9
Use, total : 271.7 270.9 268.6 268.6
Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.9 22.9 22.1
CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 0.0
Free stocks : 52.4 45.8 22.1
Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.6 0.0
:
CORN :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 79.6 75.8 78.8 78.8
Harvested : 72.4 68.8 71.0 70.5
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 136.9 138.2 125.2 125.4
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,636 1,636
Production : 9,915 9,507 8,886 8,849
Imports : 7 10 15 15
Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 10,537 10,499
Feed and residual : 5,842 5,825 5,600 5,600
Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,055 2,170 2,170
Domestic, total : 7,799 7,880 7,770 7,770
Exports : 1,941 1,900 2,000 2,000
Use, total : 9,740 9,780 9,770 9,770
Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,636 767 729
CCC inventory : 8 5 0
Free stocks : 1,891 1,631 729
Outstanding loans : 253 213 0
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.97 2.30- 2.70 2.35- 2.75
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/
Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.
WASDE-390-11
U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : August September
===============================================================================
: Million bushels
SORGHUM :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.3 9.3
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.5 7.5
Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 50.3 51.0
Beginning stocks : 65 42 56 56
Production : 471 515 380 384
Imports : 0 0 0 0
Supply, total : 536 556 436 441
Feed and residual : 222 215 135 135
Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 45 45
Total domestic : 258 260 180 180
Exports : 237 240 220 220
Use, total : 494 500 400 400
Ending stocks, total : 42 56 36 41
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.95 2.30- 2.70 2.35- 2.75
:
BARLEY :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.0
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.5 4.5
Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 55.9 55.9
Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93
Production : 319 250 252 252
Imports : 29 24 25 25
Supply, total : 459 380 370 370
Feed and residual : 123 88 100 100
Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172
Total domestic : 295 260 272 272
Exports : 58 27 20 20
Use, total : 353 287 292 292
Ending stocks, total : 106 93 78 78
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.22 2.40- 2.80 2.40- 2.80
:
OATS :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.1 5.1
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.6 2.6
Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.3 54.2 54.2
Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63
Production : 150 117 143 143
Imports : 106 96 100 100
Supply, total : 332 286 306 306
Feed and residual : 189 148 175 175
Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72
Total domestic : 257 220 247 247
Exports : 2 3 2 2
Use, total : 259 222 249 249
Ending stocks, total : 73 63 57 57
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.59 1.40- 1.80 1.60- 2.00
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers.
WASDE-390-12
U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
(Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : August September
===============================================================================
TOTAL :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 3.06 3.34 3.25 3.23
Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.23 3.21
Yield per harvested : Pounds
acre : 6,281 6,429 6,393 6,432
:
: Million hundredweight
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 36.8 39.0
Production : 190.9 213.0 206.3 206.3
Imports : 10.9 13.3 13.5 13.3
Supply, total : 229.2 254.8 256.6 258.5
Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 120.8 126.1 126.0
Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 95.0 92.0 95.0
Rough : 22.8 31.0 28.0 31.0
Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 64.0 64.0 64.0
Use, total : 200.7 215.8 218.1 221.0
Ending stocks : 28.5 39.0 38.5 37.5
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 69.0
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.17 4.25- 4.75 3.85- 4.35
:
LONG GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70
Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,130
Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.0 26.8
Production : 128.8 165.3 155.6 153.2
Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 186.0 190.8 189.3
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 85.2 89.8 89.7
Exports 8/ : 65.3 74.0 73.0 74.0
Use, total : 141.5 159.2 162.8 163.7
Ending stocks : 11.6 26.8 28.0 25.6
:
:
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62
Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733
Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 9.6 10.7
Production : 62.1 47.7 50.7 53.0
Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.3 64.6 67.7
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 35.6 36.3 36.3
Exports 8/ : 17.9 21.0 19.0 21.0
Use, total : 59.2 56.6 55.3 57.3
Ending stocks : 15.6 10.7 9.3 10.4
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August
1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type
undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil.
cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported
use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total
rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending
stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports
are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e.,
the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the
quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are
estimated.
WASDE-390-13
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : August September
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS: : Million acres
Area :
Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.0 73.0
Harvested : 72.4 73.0 72.0 71.8
:
: Bushels
Yield per harvested :
acre : 38.1 39.6 36.5 37.0
:
: Million bushels
:
Beginning stocks : 290 248 195 195
Production : 2,758 2,891 2,628 2,656
Imports : 4 3 5 5
Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 2,829 2,856
Crushings : 1,640 1,700 1,680 1,675
Exports : 996 1,065 820 850
Seed : 91 89 89 87
Residual : 78 92 _3/ 84 84
Use, total : 2,804 2,946 2,674 2,696
Ending stocks : 248 195 155 160
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.35 5.15- 6.05 5.15 - 6.05
:
:
: Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL: :
Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,640 2,435
Production : 18,420 18,865 _4/ 18,985 18,930
Imports : 73 43 65 65
Supply, total : 20,488 21,785 21,690 21,430
Domestic : 16,210 16,850 17,200 17,200
Exports : 1,401 2,500 2,500 2,500
Use, total : 17,611 19,350 19,700 19,700
Ending stocks : 2,877 2,435 1,990 1,730
Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.50 18.50- 19.00-
: 21.50 22.00
:
: Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL: :
Beginning stocks : 293 383 275 225
Production : 39,385 40,452 _4/ 39,975 39,885
Imports : 51 140 200 240
Supply, total : 39,729 40,975 40,450 40,350
Domestic : 31,643 33,100 33,450 33,350
Exports : 7,703 7,650 6,750 6,750
Use, total : 39,346 40,750 40,200 40,100
Ending stocks : 383 225 250 250
Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 168.00 170.00- 170.00-
: 200.00 200.00
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices:
soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil,
simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48
percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use, coupled with USDA's
June 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/ Based on
October year crush of 1,695 million bushels.
WASDE-390-14
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
======================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=====================
: : Estimate : August September
======================================================================
: 1,000 short tons, raw value
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,194 1,718 1,679
Production 2/3/ : 8,681 7,954 8,365 8,445
Beet sugar : 4,592 3,975 4,275 4,375
Cane sugar 4/ : 4,089 3,979 4,090 4,070
Imports 2/ : 1,574 1,529 1,542 1,542
TRQ 5/ : 1,260 1,189 1,222 1,222
Other program 6/ : 238 260 260 260
Non-program 7/ : 76 80 60 60
Total supply : 12,474 11,677 11,625 11,659
:
Exports 2/8/ : 141 125 125 125
Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,130 9,880 9,980 9,980
Domestic food use : 9,998 9,700 9,800 9,800
Other 9/ : 132 180 180 180
Miscellaneous 10/ : 8 0 0 0
Use, total : 10,279 10,005 10,105 10,105
Ending stocks 2/ : 2,194 1,672 1,520 1,554
Private : 1,410 1,454 NA NA
Other 11/ : 784 218 NA NA
:
Stocks to use ratio : 21.4 16.7 15.0 15.4
======================================================================
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical
data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S.
Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on September
Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates
Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected
2002/03): FL 1,980 (2,020); HI 250 (275); LA 1,575 (1,600); TX 174
(175); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ)
with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the
fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available
TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the
re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and
other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products
for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ For 2000/2001,
includes Commodity Credit Corporation sales to ethanol producers and
residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2001/02, includes sugar
owned by the CCC as of September 10, 2002. Season-ending stocks will be
a function of market and program developments.
WASDE-390-15
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : August September
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.38 14.38
Harvested : 13.05 13.83 13.11 12.89
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 632 705 675 675
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.60 7.60
Production : 17.19 20.30 18.44 18.13
Imports : 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03
Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 26.06 25.76
Domestic use : 8.86 7.72 7.90 7.90
Exports : 6.76 11.00 11.20 11.20
Use, total : 15.62 18.72 19.10 19.10
Unaccounted 3/ : -0.51 0.01 -0.04 -0.04
Ending stocks : 6.00 7.60 7.00 6.70
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 31.5 5/ 5/
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections.
===============================================================================
Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of
Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending
stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the
quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing
year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 33.9
percent.
WASDE-390-16
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2000/01
:
World 3/ : 175.40 583.82 101.53 105.04 590.47 102.82 168.75
United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.29 36.30 28.90 23.85
Total foreign : 149.55 523.06 99.08 96.76 554.17 73.92 144.90
Major exporters 4/ : 24.62 171.58 3.44 54.75 111.78 59.74 28.12
Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59
Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 4.00 6.89 15.93 4.63
Canada : 7.74 26.80 0.20 3.85 7.91 17.32 9.52
EU-15 : 12.65 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.23 13.38
Major importers 5/ : 89.69 143.90 50.37 11.40 208.31 2.59 73.06
Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.29 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70
China : 71.36 99.64 0.20 8.00 114.10 0.62 56.47
N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10
Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.45 28.62 2.88 9.84 28.83 2.34 4.79
India : 13.08 76.37 0.06 0.50 66.44 1.57 21.50
FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38
Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40
Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45
Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45
:
: 2001/02 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ : 168.75 578.85 107.15 106.66 586.11 106.47 161.49
United States : 23.85 53.28 2.93 5.42 32.88 26.16 21.01
Total foreign : 144.90 525.57 104.22 101.24 553.23 80.31 140.48
Major exporters 4/ : 28.12 151.79 9.36 54.30 111.08 53.80 24.39
Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55
Australia : 4.63 24.00 0.05 4.00 7.00 16.50 5.18
Canada : 9.52 20.57 0.30 3.08 7.40 16.50 6.49
EU-15 : 13.38 91.73 9.00 47.18 91.93 10.00 12.18
Major importers 5/ : 73.06 140.31 49.69 10.45 207.35 3.98 51.72
Brazil : 0.70 3.25 7.00 0.40 10.05 0.00 0.90
China : 56.47 93.87 1.30 7.00 112.60 1.51 37.53
N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 16.80 0.31 28.88 0.25 5.48
Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 9.20 1.38 9.15 0.27 1.56
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.79 35.24 1.67 10.89 31.18 4.17 6.35
India : 21.50 68.76 0.10 0.50 60.36 3.00 27.00
FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.64 19.76 68.62 13.13 18.55
Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.50 14.00 38.00 3.70 7.10
Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20
Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.10 2.20 12.67 5.49 3.70
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-390-17
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2002/03 (Projected)
World 3/ :
August : 161.34 572.27 100.97 107.82 594.86 102.67 138.75
September : 161.49 572.56 98.51 113.11 598.60 99.89 135.45
United States :
August : 21.01 45.89 2.86 4.76 32.55 24.49 12.72
September : 21.01 45.89 2.31 4.76 32.28 25.86 11.08
Total foreign :
August : 140.33 526.38 98.11 103.06 562.31 78.18 126.03
September : 140.48 526.66 96.20 108.35 566.32 74.03 124.36
Major exporters 4/ :
August : 24.46 159.66 3.76 56.83 114.48 51.80 21.60
September : 24.39 148.80 5.36 58.82 116.38 43.80 18.38
Argentina Aug : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66
Sep : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66
Australia Aug : 5.18 20.00 0.05 3.70 6.63 15.50 3.10
Sep : 5.18 15.00 0.05 4.20 7.13 10.00 3.10
Canada Aug : 6.55 18.00 0.20 4.30 8.65 12.00 4.10
Sep : 6.49 15.40 0.30 3.70 8.05 9.50 4.64
EU-15 Aug : 12.18 107.66 3.50 48.78 94.60 15.00 13.74
Sep : 12.18 104.40 5.00 50.87 96.60 15.00 9.98
Major importers 5/ :
August : 51.55 140.86 47.90 8.53 204.19 3.37 32.76
September : 51.72 141.09 45.90 8.63 204.44 3.37 30.91
Brazil Aug : 0.90 3.70 6.00 0.20 9.80 0.00 0.80
Sep : 0.90 3.70 6.00 0.30 9.80 0.00 0.80
China Aug : 37.53 92.00 2.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 20.53
Sep : 37.53 92.00 1.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 19.53
N. Africa 6/ Aug : 5.31 12.28 16.00 0.30 28.43 0.20 4.96
Sep : 5.48 11.51 16.50 0.30 28.68 0.20 4.61
Pakistan Aug : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45
Sep : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45
SE Asia 7/ Aug : 1.56 0.00 9.80 1.78 9.73 0.22 1.42
Sep : 1.56 0.00 9.80 1.78 9.73 0.22 1.42
Selected other :
East. Europe Aug : 6.26 30.46 1.97 10.14 30.31 2.92 5.46
Sep : 6.35 30.40 2.37 10.34 30.71 2.77 5.64
India Aug : 27.00 72.00 0.10 0.60 63.10 4.50 31.50
Sep : 27.00 72.00 0.10 0.60 63.10 5.00 31.00
FSU-12 8/ Aug : 18.55 82.29 3.97 21.56 71.94 11.66 21.20
Sep : 18.55 93.21 3.17 24.56 74.89 15.66 24.37
Russia Aug : 7.10 41.00 1.00 15.00 39.00 2.50 7.60
Sep : 7.10 48.00 0.50 17.50 41.50 4.50 9.60
Kazakstan Aug : 5.20 12.00 0.02 1.70 5.57 5.00 6.65
Sep : 5.20 12.00 0.02 1.70 5.57 5.00 6.65
Ukraine Aug : 3.70 17.50 0.10 2.50 13.10 4.00 4.20
Sep : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 6.00 5.20
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-390-18
World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2000/01
:
World 3/ : 209.44 857.97 102.09 588.69 881.19 105.70 186.21
United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70
Total foreign : 160.58 584.84 99.37 428.87 665.80 49.08 133.51
Major exporters 4/ : 9.77 62.58 3.21 36.45 48.77 19.64 7.15
Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22
Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.57 6.09 4.36 1.11
Canada : 5.67 24.33 2.59 20.52 24.66 3.60 4.33
Major importers 5/ : 31.61 155.71 69.39 162.25 217.94 10.79 27.98
EU-15 : 19.52 107.19 3.03 78.20 102.81 10.05 16.88
Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33
Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.14 36.07 0.02 3.06
Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.72 1.46
South Korea : 0.85 0.47 8.89 7.01 9.25 0.00 0.96
Selected other :
China : 102.69 113.95 2.56 95.38 130.29 7.30 81.63
East. Europe : 4.75 35.96 2.91 30.19 40.29 1.25 2.08
FSU-12 6/ : 3.55 49.49 1.09 29.10 45.69 2.46 5.97
Russia : 0.88 28.20 0.76 15.60 26.78 0.57 2.49
Ukraine : 1.19 12.99
