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Sat May 17, 2008

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ICE Canada Weekly Outlook: Further Weakness Expected in Canola

Winnipeg, MB, May 07, 2008 (Resource News International via COMTEX) -- Canola futures traded on the ICE Canada platform moved lower during the period ended May 7. Losses ranged from C$11.90 per metric ton in the May contract to C$17.10 per metric ton in the March contract. Spillover weakness from the soft tone in the CBOT soybean complex pressured prices lower as did the absence of fresh overseas demand. Losses were limited, however, by soaring crude oil prices and the slow pace of country movement as producers focus on spring seeding operations.

"Technically, canola is coming into a bit of a tight range, a tight triangle. The market appears to be gearing to move either up or down and the approaching USDA reports and news out of Argentina will determine where the market goes," Keith Ferley, a trader with Union Securities Ltd. in Winnipeg, said.

"As far as fundamentals go, seeding is just beginning for canola," Ferley said. While Canada is not seeing the major rains delays like the US is, extremely cool weather in some parts is not aiding germination, he said. However, the drier weather forecast should allow seeding operations to get well underway, which will be slightly negative for the market, Ferley continued.

Canola futures will be pressured as well by ideas of rising 2007/08 (Aug/Jly) ending stock levels due to the recent sluggish pace of overseas demand. Downward price pressure will stem as well from ideas that the underlying bias in oilseeds markets generally is weaker, brokers said.

Weakness will be tempered however, by reduced producer deliveries as farmers shift their attention to getting their crops seeded.


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Alana Vannahme, Resource News International

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