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Sat May 17, 2008

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WINNIPEG, MB, May 07, 2008 (Resource News International via COMTEX) -- Old crop canola cash bids continue to fall further off the year's highs with much of the weakness tied to the ongoing absence of fresh overseas demand.

Old crop canola bids delivered to the elevator ranged from $11.97 to $12.65 in Saskatchewan, from $12.49 to $12.92 in Manitoba and from $12.31 to $13.00 in Alberta as of May 6, according to data provided by Prairie Ag Hotwire.

That compares to highs for the year of $16.53 in Saskatchewan, $16.44 in Manitoba and $16.59 in Alberta, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire prices dated May 6.

"We need to see demand from buyers other than the traditional buyers if this market wants to break out of its range. We need to see business from China, Pakistan, or Dubai, somewhere other than the traditional sources," a market analyst said. He added that he did not think it would take that much in the way of new foreign demand to pull values higher.

"I think that at the end of the 2007/08 crop year we're going to see carry-out stocks of 1.00 million metric tons. Some guys even have estimates higher than that," he said.

New crop canola bids meanwhile, were at a slight premium to old crop bids, ranging from $11.82 to $13.12 in Saskatchewan, from $11.91 to $12.93 in Manitoba and from $12.36 to $12.59 in Alberta.

Part of the reason was the weather premium that was built into the new crop bids, he said.

"We've got some dry areas in Canada right now. For now the levels are adequate but in a couple of weeks we're really going to need some moisture, especially if the temperatures turns higher," he said.

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