Average spot cotton quotations were 71 points lower than the previous week, according to the USDA,
Agricultural Marketing Services Cotton Program. Quotations for the base quality of cotton (color 41, leaf 4,
staple 34, mike 35-36 and 43-49, strength 26.5-28.4, uniformity 81) in the seven designated markets averaged
60.59 cents per pound for the week ended Thursday, May 8. The weekly average was down from 61.30 cents
reported last week but was up from 44.10 cents reported the corresponding period a year ago. Daily average
quotations ranged from a low of 59.99 cents on Monday, May 5 to a high of 61.18 cents on Thursday, May 8.
Spot transactions reported in the Daily Spot Cotton Quotations for the week ended May 8 totaled 11,795 bales
compared with 6,650 last week and 107,587 a year ago. Total spot transactions for the season were 1,557,567
bales compared to 1,377,688 bales the corresponding week a year ago. The ICE July futures settlement prices
ended the week at 70.85 cents compared to 69.25 cents reported last week.
Southeastern markets. Spot cotton trading was inactive. Producer offerings were moderate. Demand
was light. Average local prices were lower. Supplies were moderate. Trading of CCC-loan equities was
inactive. No forward contracting was reported during the period.
Widespread planting was underway throughout the Southeast. Portions of Alabama received one and one-
half to two inches of precipitation early in the period which helped to ease the lingering drought condition.
Local experts reported emerging cotton in Georgia had achieved good stands in some areas due to light,
timely rainfall in recent weeks. Warm weather and breezy conditions prevailed later in the period and
contributed to soil moisture loss throughout the region. Soil moisture conditions were rated as mostly short
to adequate in Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Additional moisture will be needed in these areas in
the weeks ahead to promote seed germination and enhance seedling vigor.
South Central markets. Spot cotton trading was inactive. Available supplies were light. Demand was
light. Average local spot prices were lower. Trading of CCC-loan equities was inactive. Inquiries from
representatives of domestic and foreign mills were light. No sales were reported.
A cold front brought severe weather, cooler temperatures, and more rain to the region early in the reporting
period. At least eight tornadoes ripped through Arkansas. Seven deaths were reported, along with damage
to 400 houses, other structures, and trees. Farmers, county agents, and teams form the National Weather
Service were still conducting damage assessment. Another line of storms damaged homes and trees in rural
southeastern Louisiana; damage assessments were also underway there. More rain fell on already saturated
soils late in the period. Rainfall totals for the period ranged from one to seven inches, with estimates of 10
inches in the hardest hit areas in Louisiana. Soil moisture was rated at mostly adequate to surplus
throughout the region. Favorable conditions allowed planting progress to increase dramatically for the
second consecutive week. Planting in the North Delta continued to lag well behind the five-year average
because of excessive rainfall. According to the NASS Crop Progress report for the week ending May 4, 68
percent of the crop was planted in Louisiana, 24 in Arkansas, 19 in Missouri, 14 in Mississippi, and 7
percent in Tennessee. Emergence in Louisiana was hindered by cooler temperatures. Producers were
carefully monitoring fields for thrips and seedling disease.
Southwestern markets. Spot trading was slow in the East Texas/Oklahoma and West Texas markets.
Trading of CCC-loan equities was slow in east Texas/Oklahoma and moderate in the west Texas markets.
Supplies were moderate. Demand was light for color 41 and better, leaf 4 and better, staple 34 and longer,
and mike 33-49. Average local spot prices for east Texas/Oklahoma and west Texas were lower. No
domestic or export mill inquiries were reported.
East Texas/Oklahoma
> A light volume of color 21, leaf 1, staple 35, mike 45, strength 27, and uniformity 81 traded in
Oklahoma at around 64.00 cents per pound, FOB car/truck (compression charges not paid).
> A light volume of color 21 and better, leaf 4 and better, staple 35-37, mike 30-34, strength 29-
34, and uniformity 79-82 traded in Oklahoma at around 60.00 cents, same terms as above.
> A light volume of CCC-loan equities traded for one-half of a cent to two cents.
Stands in the south Texas region were considered mostly good. Most of the young crop is developing
normally in the Coastal Bend and Rio Grande Valley districts, but some stands have begun to exhibit signs
of stress from lack of water. Timely rains are needed to advance the crop. According to the NASS Crop
Progress report for the week ending May 4, 24 percent of the Texas crop and eight percent in Oklahoma had
been planted. Planting gained momentum in central Texas due mainly to good weather conditions. Planting
in Oklahoma and Kansas was in the early stages, but was expected to increase rapidly in the next few
weeks. Both states received beneficial rainfall ranging from three-quarters of an inch to over two inches.
West Texas
> A light volume of color mostly 31 and better, leaf 5 and better, staple 32 and longer, mike 33-
52, strength 23-32, and uniformity 77-82 traded at around 61.50 cents per pound, FOB
car/truck (compression charges not paid).
> A moderate volume of color 31 and 41, leaf 3-5, staple 35 and longer, mike 33-38, strength 25-
32, and uniformity 77-83, with around 75 percent extraneous matter (bark) traded at around
60.00 to 61.00 cents, same terms as above.
> A light volume of color 32 and better, leaf 3 and better, staple 32-36, mike 34-49, strength 26-
29, and uniformity 77-82 traded at around 59.00 cents, same terms as above.
> A moderate volume of old-crop cotton, color mostly 41 and better, leaf 3-6, staple 37 and
longer, mike mostly 35-49, strength 24-36, and uniformity 78-84, with around 50 percent
extraneous matter (bark) traded at around 60.75 cents, same terms as above.
> A moderate volume of CCC-loan equities traded for two and one-half to three and one-half
cents and a light volume traded for five cents.
Producers with irrigated acreage pre-watered fields in preparation for spring planting. Temperatures across
the region were in the high 70s to low 80s for most of the period. Planting in the Lubbock area was on a
limited scale, but was expected to increase rapidly in the next few weeks. Thunderstorms brought hail and
high winds, with accumulations of three and three-quarters to over four inches, to the Lubbock area.
Dryland producers were waiting for a good rain before wide-scale planting could begin. Most fields were
bedded and prepared for planting. Widespread planting was expected to start as soon as fields could
support heavy machinery.
Western markets. Spot cotton trading was inactive in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Supplies and
demand were light. Average local prices were lower. No forward contracting or domestic mill activity was
reported. Strong winds early in the reporting period slowed crop progress; however, conditions improved
during the week. Temperatures were in the mid 70s to low 80s. No significant insect problems were
reported. Some seedling disease was reported but was not widespread.
Spot trading of Upland cotton was slow in the Desert Southwest (DSW). Supplies were moderate. Demand
was light. Average local prices were lower. No forward contracting or domestic mill activity was reported.
Brokers offered a moderate volume of cash and equity cotton. Prices ranged from 64.00 to 65.50 cents per
pound, uncompressed, FOB warehouse. Foreign mill interest was light. Merchants cited that
competitively- priced, foreign and domestic growths contributed to the lack of demand. Strong winds early
in the reporting period slowed crop progress, but conditions improved as the week progressed.
Temperatures were reported in the 80s late in the period. Industry representatives in the New Mexico and
El Paso, Texas areas reported that planting was completed. Approximately 30 percent of the crop was up
and doing well. Pesticide treatments were minimal, mostly for thrips.
American Pima spot cotton trading was inactive. Supplies and demand were light. Average local prices
were steady. No forward contracting or domestic mill activity was reported. Foreign mill inquiries were
light. Mill agents purchased a light volume of descriptive color 2, leaf 2, and staple 46 for prompt shipment.
Shipping to foreign destinations was steady from Arizona and New Mexico. Landed foreign mill prices
averaged 114.00 to 120.00 cents per pound. No new-crop business was reported. Crop progress was good
as warmer temperatures (mid 70s to low 80s) helped the crop.
Textile mill report. Domestic mill buyers purchased a moderate volume of color 41, leaf 4, and staple 34
for July through December delivery. Demand was best for color 41, leaf 4, and staple 34 for October
through December delivery. Yarn demand was moderate. Most mills operated on a six-day-production
schedule.
Inquiries through export channels were good early in the period, but waned as ICE futures prices
trended higher late in the period. Representatives for mills in Hong Kong inquired for a moderate volume
of USDA Green Card Class, color 41, leaf 4, and staple 36 for June shipment. No sales were reported.
Exports of all cotton from the United States totaled 1,057,900 bales during April, according to the Foreign
Agricultural Service, USDA. A month earlier, 955,200 bales were shipped and 1,268,900 bales were
exported in April 2007. Shipments for the first nine months (August-April) this marketing year totaled
9,033,400 bales, compared to 7,313,900 bales exported through April last year.
The nations intended cotton acreage was 26 percent planted, two points behind last year and six points
behind the 5-year average pace. During the week, progress was most active in Alabama, Arkansas, and
Louisiana, where 16 and 21 percent of each states intended plantings were seeded. In the Delta, progress in
Louisiana, at 68 percent, has advanced rapidly under mostly favorable conditions this spring. Farther north,
in Arkansas and Mississippi, the pace has been much slower and is well behind normal due to abundant
spring rainfall. In California, cotton planting was nearly complete, the same pace as last year and ahead of
the average by 16 points. In the Southeast, Alabama and Georgia producers were planting ahead of last
years pace, but were eight and five points behind normal, respectively.
The following information was excerpted from a report by the World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates, released May 9, 2008
The 2008/09 U.S. cotton projections included sharply lower production and ending stocks compared with
2007/08. Production was projected at 14.5 million bales, down 25 percent from 2007/08, based on planted
area in the Prospective Plantings, combined with historical average abandonment and yields. Domestic mill
use also was reduced 300,000 bales from 2007/08 to 4.3 million bales, but exports were raised slightly to
14.5 million. Ending stocks were projected at 5.6 million bales, a 43 percent reduction from the beginning
level and 30 percent of total use.
A combination of slightly lower production and slightly higher consumption was expected to reduce
world stocks in 2008/09. World production was forecast at 118 million bales, 2 percent below the current
season, as higher foreign production partially offsets a reduction in the United States. World consumption
was projected at 127 million bales, a growth rate of 2 percent, reflecting a slight recovery from 2007/08, but
well below the recent 5-year average growth. For China, slightly lower planted area and slightly higher
yields resulted in production of 35.5 million bales, marginally below the revised 2007/08 level. Strong but
decelerating growth in Chinas consumption results in higher imports and lower ending stocks; higher trade
by China also supported an increase in world trade. World ending stocks were projected to fall nearly 10
percent to about 55.5 million bales.
For 2007/08, a slight decrease in U.S. production relative to last month reflects USDAs final
production estimate. Domestic mill use and exports were both reduced based on recent activity, raising
ending stocks to 9.9 million bales. The 2007/08 world-beginning stocks and production were raised from
last month, due mainly to revisions in the China balance sheet beginning in 2000/01. Chinas production
was revised beginning in 2002/03 based on sources in China who had revised estimates for Xinjiang
using rail shipment data. Production is also raised for India and Brazil, but is lowered for Zimbabwe. World
consumption is reduced about 500,000 bales due to decreases for Turkey, Russia, the United States and
others. A reduction of nearly 700,000 bales in world imports reflects decreases for China, Turkey, Russia,
and others. World 2007/08 ending stocks are raised 1.9 million bales, with the largest increases in China, the
United States, and India.
The following information was reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service, NASS, released
May 9, 2008
2007 Cotton Ginnings: A total of 18.7 million running bales were ginned during the 2007 season, 11 percent
below the 2006 ginnings of 21.0 million running bales. There were 806 active cotton gins during the 2007
season, down from the 835 gins that operated in 2006. Forty-five percent of the gins processed more than
20,000 running bales compared with 53 percent the previous season.
2007-Cotton Final
All cotton production was estimated at 19.2 million 480-pounds bales, down 11 percent from last years
production. The U.S. all-cotton yield averaged 879 pounds per acre, up 65 pounds from last year. Upland
cotton production was estimated at 18.4 million 480-pounds bales, down 12 percent from last year. The
U.S. yield for upland cotton was estimated at 864 pounds per acre, up 58 pounds from last years yield. The
yield will be the highest on record, surpassing the previous record high of 843 pounds per acre set in 2004.
Harvested area, at 10.2 million acres, was down 18 percent from last year. American-Pima, at record
851,800 bales (480-pound) was up 11 percent from last year. The U.S. yield was estimated at 1,419 pounds
per acre, up 283 pounds from last year.
In the Southeast states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia),
producers battled extreme drought conditions during the early summer. By late June, planting was complete
in the region. Drought conditions continued to plague producers throughout the fall causing the crop to
develop ahead of normal in most areas. By the end of September, harvesting was ahead of normal
throughout the region except in Georgia, where harvesting lagged behind throughout the season. Harvesting
was complete in the region by early December. Objective yield measurements in Georgia showed boll
counts to be the third highest in the last 5 years.
Upland growers in the Delta states (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
finished planting in late May. The cotton crop in the Delta states matured rapidly during the late summer
and early fall due to the continual hot, dry weather. In September, harvesting got underway but by the
middle of the month, Louisiana and Mississippi producers were hit with several weeks of rainy weather
which delayed harvesting. In Missouri and Tennessee, favorable fall weather and an advanced crop allowed
harvesting to be completed by the middle of November, well ahead of normal. The objective yield data
show Louisiana and Arkansas boll counts to be the highest on record. In Louisiana, producers had a record
yield, surpassing the previous record set in 2003. In Mississippi, boll counts and boll weights are slightly
lower than the 5-year average.
Southwest (Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) producers battled wet, cool conditions
which delayed planting of upland cotton. The later planted crop and the abnormally wet, cool summer
caused crop development to lag behind normal. During the early fall months, hot weather and timely rains
helped promote crop development in the region. By mid-September, after a delay from the excessive rains
during the summer, harvesting was finally in full swing in south Texas. In the High Plains of Texas,
Oklahoma, and Kansas, harvesting got underway in October where ideal weather allowed harvesting to
advance rapidly. A record high yield was recorded by Oklahoma producers, surpassing the previous record
set in 2004. Data from the objective yield survey showed Texas bolls per acre to be the highest on record
and boll weights to be second heaviest on record. The yield in Texas was estimated at 843 pounds per acre,
surpassing the previous record set in 2005. California and Arizona upland producers completed planting by
early June. Ideal weather throughout the summer and fall months allowed the crop to develop ahead of
normal. In Arizona, harvesting got underway by the first of the September, slightly ahead of normal. In
the San Joaquin Valley, harvesting was in full swing by the middle of October. By the end of November,
harvest was complete in California. Data from the objective yield survey show California boll weights to be
heaviest on record. Californias yield is estimated at record high 1,608 pounds, surpassing the previous
record set in 2004.
The following information was reported by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) released
May 1, 2008
No Growth in World Cotton Mill Use and Production Expected in 2008/09
Global cotton mill use was expected to remain stable at 26.7 million tons in 2008/09. The main reasons for
the stagnation in mill use were slower world economic growth and higher prices of cotton relative to
polyester.
World cotton production was also projected essentially unchanged in 2008/09, at 26.2 million tons. A
significant decline in production expected in the United States and Brazil could be offset by increases
projected in Asia, West Africa, and Australia.
World ending stocks were forecast down by 4% in 2008/09 to 11.4 million tons. Despite stagnant
consumption, world imports were expected to increase by 6% to 8.6 million tons due to projected higher
imports by China (Mainland).
The Secretariat, using the ICAC Price Model 2007, forecast a season-average Cotlook A Index of 77
cents per pound in 2008/09, 4 cents higher than the average expected in 2007/08 (the 95% confidence
interval was between 64 and 90 cents per pound).
