USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - December 10, 2002
WASDE-393 December 10, 2002
WHEAT: Projected 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are down 10 million
bushels from last month due to increased food use. Larger expected food
use mainly reflects the reduced extraction rate (flour yield per bushel of
wheat) indicated in the recent mill grind report issued by the Bureau of
Census and expectations for the lower extraction rate to continue in coming
months. The projected price range is unchanged from last month at $3.65 to
$3.95 per bushel.
Projected 2002/03 global production is down slightly from last month as
reductions for Argentina, Australia, and Brazil more than offset increases for
Iran and Canada. Despite the larger Canadian crop, expected exports for
Canada are reduced from last month. A large proportion of Canada's crop is
feed wheat, a substantial volume of grain is unharvested, and demand for
grain for feeding is strong. Expected exports also are reduced for Argentina
because of the lower prospective crop. Projected Australian exports are
unchanged from last month. Smaller output and increased feed use are
offset by reduced ending stocks.
Larger projected global imports mainly reflect larger EU imports due to the
strong pace of import licenses to date, and larger Brazilian import needs
given its smaller crop. Reduced exports by Canada and Argentina and
larger global imports are offset by increased exports by Russia and Ukraine.
Russia, Ukraine, and Australia account for most of this month's reduction in
projected 2002/03 global ending stocks.
COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are down 5
million bushels from last month as increased domestic use more than offsets
lower exports. Projected domestic use is up 30 million bushels because of
larger prospective use of corn for the production of ethanol. Export
expectations are 25 million bushels below last month because of increased
competition and reduced global imports. The projected price range for corn
is unchanged at $2.20 to $2.60 per bushel.
Global 2002/03 coarse grain production and use projections are virtually
unchanged from last month. A number of country-specific production
changes this month are largely offsetting. Projected corn production is
higher in Argentina and Ukraine, but gains for corn production in Canada are
partially offset by reductions in barley and oats. The largest reduction in
coarse grain production this month is in Australia, led by a sharply lower
sorghum crop. While projected corn imports are up marginally for Australia,
most of the impact from the smaller crops is reflected in lower use.
Prospective corn exports are increased for Argentina because of the larger
crop, while lower corn imports by Canada are linked to their larger corn crop
and increased wheat feeding. The combined result is lower prospective U.S.
corn exports.
RICE: No changes are made to U.S. rice area, yield, or production from a
month ago. However, U.S. imports in 2002/03 are lowered 12 percent to
11.5 million cwt, 13 percent below the 2001/02 record. Smaller imports of
Australia's rice are expected. U.S. exports are projected at a record 105
million cwt, 5 percent above last month, 12 percent above 2001/02, and the
largest exports since 1994/95. Exports of rough rice are projected at a
record 39 million cwt, 11 percent above last month, and 23 percent above
2001/02. Exports of milled and brown rice (on a rough-equivalent basis) are
projected at 66 million cwt, 2 percent above last month and 6 percent above
2001/02. Long-grain exports are raised 3 million cwt to a record 82 million
cwt while combined medium/short grain exports are raised 2 million cwt to 23
million cwt. Ending stocks, at 32.5 million cwt, are down 7 percent from both
last month and from 2001/02. The season-average price range for 2002/03
is raised 10 cents on each end of the range to $3.80 to $4.10 per cwt, down
from $4.17 per cwt in 2001/02 and still the lowest since 1986/87.
Global production and ending stocks for 2002/03 are reduced from a month
ago while imports and exports are increased. World rice production is
projected at 380.3 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from last month, a
decline of nearly 17 million tons (4 percent) from 2001/02, and the smallest
crop since 1995/96. This month's reduction is due primarily to smaller crops
projected for China and Australia. Global trade for 2002/02 is increased
slightly, due mostly to larger exports for India, Thailand, Vietnam, and the
United States, which are partially offset by lower exports for Burma and
Australia. Imports for 2002/03 are raised for a number of countries including
Cuba, Brazil, and South Africa. Global ending stocks are projected at 104.9
million tons, down 1.2 million tons from last month, down 27.5 million tons
from 2001/02, and the lowest stocks since 1987/88.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2002/03 is forecast at 82.6 million
tons, down slightly from last month due to reduced cottonseed production.
Soybean exports are increased to 900 million bushels, up 10 million bushels
from last month, based on the strong shipment pace to date. With projected
crush unchanged, soybean stocks are reduced to 175 million bushels, the
lowest since 1996/97. Soybean oil domestic use for 2002/03 is raised 50
million pounds to 17.5 billion pounds this month as reduced rapeseed oil
imports from Canada are replaced with soybean oil. Soybean oil ending
stocks are projected at 1.4 billion pounds, the lowest in 5 years.
The season-average soybean price range for 2002/03 is raised 10 cents on
the low end, to $5.05 to $5.85 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are raised 0.5
cent on both ends of the range to 20 to 23 cents per pound. Soybean meal
prices are projected at $160 to $180 per short ton compared with $155 to
$185 last month.
Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at 321.7 million tons, up
slightly from last month. Foreign production is projected at 239.1 million
tons, up 0.2 million tons as gains for rapeseed and sunflowerseed are mostly
offset by reductions for peanuts and copra. Canada rapeseed production is
raised 0.2 million tons reflecting the latest Statistics Canada forecast.
Australia's rapeseed production is reduced to 0.7 million tons, the lowest
level in 6 years. Other changes include increased palm oil production for
Indonesia and reduced peanut production for Argentina. There are also
several offsetting changes for foreign cottonseed production. Projected
global oilseed stocks are reduced slightly this month, mainly reflecting lower
U.S. soybean stocks.
SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2002/03 is decreased
57,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Cane sugar production is
decreased 50,000 short tons, as lower output in Louisiana offsets an
increase in Florida. The decline in Louisiana is based on reduced sugar
recovery from sugarcane, while the increase in Florida is based on higher
forecast sugarcane area harvested for sugar and per-acre sugarcane yields.
The ending stocks-to-use ratio is 12.1 percent, compared with 12.7 percent
last month.
For 2001/02, slightly lower stocks this month are mainly due to revisions
from the Commodity Credit Corporation. Non-program imports are lowered
to reflect final data from the Bureau of Census.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast total meat production for
2002 is reduced this month as higher beef and turkey production are more
than offset by lower pork and broiler production. While recent cold, wet
weather has reduced rates of gain and is limiting growth in slaughter
weights, beef production forecasts for 2002 are raised as slaughter rates
have been running above expectations. Additional beef production also is
supported by relatively high levels of dairy cow slaughter as producers cull
lower-producing animals from their herds. Increasing turkey weights lead to
expectations of higher production in late 2002 into early 2003.
Pork production for 2002 is lowered from last month as slaughter has slowed
and pig crop data indicate that December slaughter may only be slightly
ahead of 2001. Broiler production forecasts for 2002 and early 2003 are
lowered as eggs set and chicks placed data continue to indicate a slowdown.
Beef and pork exports are raised for 2002 and 2003 as import demand in
most markets is expected to remain strong. However, broiler exports are
lowered as exports to major markets are expected to remain weak.
Choice cattle prices for the end of 2002 and first-quarter 2003 are raised
slightly. Hog prices are raised due to tighter-than-expected supplies in the
fourth quarter. With continued large supplies pressuring poultry prices,
broiler and turkey price forecasts are lowered for the last quarter of 2002.
Milk production forecasts for 2002/03 are lowered from last month. Weaker
milk prices are expected to lessen incentives to raise output per cow. Prices
are expected to be weaker than forecast last month as a result of the
November 15 USDA announcement that adjusted purchase prices for butter
and nonfat dry milk, and continued sluggish product use. Although higher
purchase prices are expected to support butter prices, the reduction in
nonfat dry milk prices will lead to lower Class IV prices. Cheese prices also
are projected weaker during 2002/03 as more milk moves into cheese
production. CCC removals of cheese and butter are forecast higher than
last month and nonfat dry milk removals are forecast lower. The 2002/03 all
milk price is expected to average $11.30 to $11.90 per cwt.
COTTON: This month's 2002/03 U.S. cotton forecasts include lower
production and domestic mill use, with ending stocks revised down.
Production is reduced 2.5 percent from last month to 17.4 million bales, due
mainly to reduced yields in the Southeast. Domestic mill use is projected
lower based on increased competition from textile imports. Exports are
unchanged from last month. Ending stocks are reduced to 6.5 million bales.
The 2002/03 world cotton projections reflect slightly lower production and
marginally higher use, reducing ending stocks 3 percent from last month.
Decreases in production for Australia, Argentina, Egypt, and the United
States are partially offset by an increase for India. Projected consumption
includes increases for China, Argentina, and Indonesia which are nearly
offset by the decrease for the United States. World stocks are reduced to
38.8 million bales, the lowest level since 1995/96.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared
by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are
listed on page 5.
APPROVED:
KEITH J. COLLINS
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on January 10,2003.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be
released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003: Jan. 10,
Feb.11, Mar. 11, Apr. 10, May 12, June 11, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 11,
Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11.
Announcing Agricultural Outlook Forum 2003: You're invited to USDA's 79th
annual Outlook forum on February 20-21, 2003, in Arlington, Virginia. The
meeting, which attracted 1,400 attendees in 2002, will provide timely forecasts
of farm prospects and insight into major trends affecting the farm economy.
For complete details access www.usda.gov/oce or send e-mail
agforum@usda.gov.
Leading analysts will be on hand to discuss planting, trade, and price
prospects for farm commodities and farm income prospects for 2003.
Meteorologists will discuss the impact of El Nino on global crops.
With a theme of Competing in the 21st Century, the program will feature the
potential for export competition from Central and Eastern Europe, Brazil, and
Asia, as well as progress in bilateral trade agreements and the WTO. Focus
sessions will highlight challenges producers face in the competitive arena,
ranging from the growing complexity and cost of regulation, to access to
markets and information, to dealing with food safety and changing eating
habits.
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WASDE-393-6
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 1,841.55 2,403.74 232.71 1,864.30 539.43
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,864.25 2,403.68 236.76 1,898.50 505.18
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 1,812.77 2,316.70 228.24 1,895.05 421.66
December : 1,809.94 2,315.11 229.44 1,896.36 418.76
Wheat :
2000/01 : 584.00 790.99 102.82 586.56 204.43
2001/02 (Est.) : 579.47 783.90 108.81 585.32 198.58
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 569.34 767.55 101.60 595.10 172.46
December : 568.72 767.30 102.60 597.81 169.49
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 859.80 1,069.67 105.78 880.84 188.83
2001/02 (Est.) : 887.51 1,076.34 101.16 902.11 174.23
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 861.65 1,035.38 100.38 892.31 143.07
December : 860.93 1,035.16 100.20 890.77 144.38
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 397.76 543.08 24.12 396.91 146.17
2001/02 (Est.) : 397.27 543.44 26.79 411.06 132.37
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 381.79 513.77 26.26 407.64 106.12
December : 380.29 512.66 26.65 407.77 104.89
:
: United States
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43
2001/02 (Est.) : 321.79 405.13 83.82 253.86 67.46
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 295.86 368.68 84.58 248.27 35.84
December : 295.86 368.63 84.10 249.30 35.24
Wheat :
2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85
2001/02 (Est.) : 53.26 80.04 26.16 32.72 21.15
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 43.99 67.32 25.86 31.73 9.73
December : 43.99 67.32 25.86 32.01 9.46
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70
2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.71 217.32 45.09
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 245.23 293.10 55.59 212.62 24.89
December : 245.23 293.10 54.96 213.38 24.76
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89
2001/02 (Est.) : 6.67 7.97 2.94 3.81 1.22
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 6.64 8.27 3.13 3.92 1.22
December : 6.64 8.22 3.29 3.92 1.02
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye,
millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).
WASDE-393-7
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: Foreign 3/
Total grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 1,501.73 1,982.83 144.60 1,608.94 462.00
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,542.46 1,998.55 152.94 1,644.65 437.72
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 1,516.91 1,948.02 143.66 1,646.78 385.82
December : 1,514.08 1,946.48 145.34 1,647.06 383.52
Wheat :
2000/01 : 523.24 701.94 73.92 550.26 180.58
2001/02 (Est.) : 526.21 703.87 82.65 552.60 177.43
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 525.35 700.24 75.74 563.36 162.73
December : 524.73 699.98 76.74 565.80 160.03
Coarse grains 5/ :
2000/01 : 586.67 744.97 49.16 665.45 136.13
2001/02 (Est.) : 625.65 759.22 46.45 684.79 129.14
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 616.41 742.28 44.79 679.69 118.18
December : 615.70 742.06 45.24 677.40 119.62
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 391.81 535.92 21.53 393.23 145.28
2001/02 (Est.) : 390.60 535.46 23.84 407.25 131.15
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 375.15 505.50 23.13 403.73 104.91
December : 373.65 504.44 23.36 403.86 103.87
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains
and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed
grains.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
2000/01 : 88.74 134.04 26.59 91.96 42.71
2001/02 (Est.) : 98.35 141.06 28.99 94.07 47.39
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 88.14 135.63 29.45 96.22 40.00
December : 87.41 134.81 29.45 96.39 38.84
: United States
2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.74 8.86 6.00
2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.72 7.43
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 17.82 25.27 10.80 7.70 6.80
December : 17.38 24.83 10.80 7.50 6.50
: Foreign 3/
2000/01 : 71.56 112.92 19.85 83.10 36.70
2001/02 (Est.) : 78.05 114.73 17.99 86.35 39.97
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 70.32 110.37 18.65 88.52 33.20
December : 70.04 109.98 18.65 88.89 32.34
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.
WASDE-393-8
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 313.44 348.55 71.45 254.71 35.65
2001/02 (Est.) : 323.52 359.18 67.95 264.79 36.67
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 321.66 358.59 71.84 267.89 32.78
December : 321.71 358.38 72.03 267.89 32.57
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 175.39 181.52 57.00 175.84 5.34
2001/02 (Est.) : 182.71 188.05 60.36 181.42 5.63
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 185.98 191.61 61.32 185.44 5.65
December : 186.03 191.66 61.36 185.40 5.66
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 89.51 97.66 35.19 88.73 8.38
2001/02 (Est.) : 91.37 99.75 36.90 91.14 7.64
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 91.83 99.45 38.05 92.01 6.51
December : 92.21 99.85 38.04 92.99 6.50
:
: United States
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.07 7.82
2001/02 (Est.) : 89.83 98.30 29.94 50.62 6.88
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 82.73 90.01 25.02 49.22 6.00
December : 82.58 89.82 25.29 49.09 5.72
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 38.22 39.68 7.26 32.03 0.40
2001/02 (Est.) : 38.90 40.35 7.05 33.01 0.29
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 38.01 39.32 5.85 33.19 0.28
December : 37.95 39.23 5.86 33.10 0.28
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 9.51 12.39 1.05 9.65 1.69
2001/02 (Est.) : 9.65 12.81 1.56 9.95 1.30
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 9.51 12.28 1.32 10.05 0.91
December : 9.49 12.23 1.32 10.05 0.86
:
: Foreign 3/
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 228.55 253.85 43.48 205.64 27.83
2001/02 (Est.) : 233.69 260.87 38.01 214.16 29.80
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 238.93 268.57 46.81 218.67 26.79
December : 239.12 268.55 46.74 218.80 26.85
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 137.18 141.84 49.74 143.82 4.95
2001/02 (Est.) : 143.80 147.70 53.31 148.41 5.34
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 147.97 152.29 55.47 152.25 5.37
December : 148.08 152.43 55.51 152.30 5.39
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 80.01 85.27 34.13 79.08 6.69
2001/02 (Est.) : 81.72 86.94 35.34 81.20 6.34
2002/03 (Proj.) :
November : 82.32 87.17 36.73 81.96 5.60
December : 82.73 87.62 36.72 82.94 5.64
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an
Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to
world minus United States.
WASDE-393-9
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : November December
===============================================================================
Area : Million acres
Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.4 60.4
Harvested : 53.1 48.6 45.8 45.8
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 42.0 40.2 35.3 35.3
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 950 876 777 777
Production : 2,232 1,957 1,616 1,616
Imports : 90 108 80 80
Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,474 2,474
Food : 950 926 930 940
Seed : 80 82 86 86
Feed and residual : 304 194 150 150
Domestic, total : 1,334 1,202 1,166 1,176
Exports : 1,062 961 950 950
Use, total : 2,396 2,164 2,116 2,126
Ending stocks : 876 777 358 348
CCC inventory : 97 99 75 75
Free stocks : 779 678 283 273
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 3.65- 3.95 3.65- 3.95
===============================================================================
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use
===============================================================================
Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : :
June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total
===============================================================================
2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876
Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,957
Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941
Domestic use : 467 303 257 95 80 1,202
Exports : 349 216 199 147 50 961
Use, total : 815 520 457 242 130 2,164
Ending stocks, total : 363 230 78 73 33 777
:
2002/03 (projected) :
Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777
Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616
Supply, total 3/ : 973 617 417 319 147 2,474
Domestic use : 480 252 257 101 86 1,176
Exports : 365 275 120 155 35 950
Use, total : 845 527 377 256 121 2,126
Ending stocks, total :
December : 128 90 40 63 27 348
November : 143 85 40 63 27 358
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1.
2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes
imports.
WASDE-393-10
U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : November December
===============================================================================
FEED GRAINS :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.2 98.2
Harvested : 87.7 83.6 84.3 84.3
Yield per harvested : Metric tons
acre : 3.11 3.13 2.91 2.91
: Million metric tons
Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.1 45.1
Production : 272.9 261.7 245.1 245.1
Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6
Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 292.8 292.8
Feed and residual : 159.8 158.9 151.3 151.3
Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 61.1 61.8
Domestic, total : 215.1 217.0 212.3 213.1
Exports : 56.6 54.7 55.6 55.0
Use, total : 271.7 271.7 267.9 268.0
Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.1 24.9 24.7
CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Free stocks : 52.4 44.9 24.7 24.6
Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.2
:
CORN :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 79.6 75.8 78.8 78.8
Harvested : 72.4 68.8 70.5 70.5
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 136.9 138.2 127.6 127.6
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,599 1,599
Production : 9,915 9,507 9,003 9,003
Imports : 7 10 15 15
Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 10,618 10,618
Feed and residual : 5,842 5,874 5,675 5,675
Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,054 2,170 2,200
Domestic, total : 7,799 7,928 7,845 7,875
Exports : 1,941 1,889 1,925 1,900
Use, total : 9,740 9,817 9,770 9,775
Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,599 848 843
CCC inventory : 8 5 5 5
Free stocks : 1,891 1,594 843 838
Outstanding loans : 253 213 200 200
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.97 2.20- 2.60 2.20- 2.60
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/
Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.
WASDE-393-11
U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : November December
===============================================================================
: Million bushels
SORGHUM :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.3 9.3
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.5 7.5
Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 50.7 50.7
Beginning stocks : 65 42 59 59
Production : 471 515 381 381
Imports : 0 0 0 0
Supply, total : 536 556 441 441
Feed and residual : 222 211 115 115
Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 45 45
Total domestic : 258 256 160 160
Exports : 237 241 245 245
Use, total : 494 497 405 405
Ending stocks, total : 42 59 36 36
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.94 2.25- 2.65 2.25- 2.65
:
BARLEY :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.1 5.1
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.1 4.1
Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 54.9 54.9
Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93
Production : 319 249 227 227
Imports : 29 24 25 25
Supply, total : 459 380 345 345
Feed and residual : 123 88 80 80
Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172
Total domestic : 295 260 252 252
Exports : 58 27 20 20
Use, total : 353 287 272 272
Ending stocks, total : 106 93 73 73
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.22 2.40- 2.80 2.50- 2.80
:
OATS :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.0
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.1
Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.4 56.8 56.8
Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63
Production : 150 117 119 119
Imports : 106 96 100 100
Supply, total : 332 286 282 282
Feed and residual : 189 148 150 150
Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72
Total domestic : 257 220 222 222
Exports : 2 3 2 2
Use, total : 259 223 224 224
Ending stocks, total : 73 63 58 58
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.59 1.65- 1.95 1.70- 1.90
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers.
WASDE-393-12
U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
(Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : November December
===============================================================================
TOTAL :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 3.06 3.34 3.23 3.23
Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.21 3.21
Yield per harvested : Pounds
acre : 6,281 6,429 6,611 6,611
:
: Million hundredweight
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 39.0 39.0
Production : 190.9 213.0 212.0 212.0
Imports : 10.8 13.2 13.0 11.5
Supply, total : 229.2 254.7 264.0 262.5
Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 121.7 125.0 125.0
Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 94.1 100.0 105.0
Rough : 22.8 31.7 35.0 39.0
Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 62.4 65.0 66.0
Use, total : 200.7 215.8 225.0 230.0
Ending stocks : 28.5 39.0 39.0 32.5
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 69.0
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.17 3.70- 4.00 3.80- 4.10
:
LONG GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70
Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,130
Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.8 26.8
Production : 128.8 165.3 157.5 157.5
Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 186.1 193.5 193.8
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 85.8 88.7 90.7
Exports 8/ : 65.3 73.5 79.0 82.0
Use, total : 141.5 159.3 167.7 172.7
Ending stocks : 11.6 26.8 25.8 21.1
:
:
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62
Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733
Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.7 10.7
Production : 62.1 47.7 54.5 54.5
Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.1 68.9 67.2
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 35.9 36.3 34.3
Exports 8/ : 17.9 20.6 21.0 23.0
Use, total : 59.2 56.4 57.3 57.3
Ending stocks : 15.6 10.7 11.6 9.9
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August
1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type
undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil.
cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported
use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total
rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending
stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports
are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e.,
the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the
quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are
estimated.
WASDE-393-13
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : November December
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS: : Million acres
Area :
Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.0 73.0
Harvested : 72.4 73.0 71.8 71.8
:
: Bushels
Yield per harvested :
acre : 38.1 39.6 37.5 37.5
:
: Million bushels
:
Beginning stocks : 290 248 208 208
Production : 2,758 2,891 2,690 2,690
Imports : 4 2 2 2
Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 2,900 2,900
Crushings : 1,640 1,700 1,660 1,660
Exports : 996 1,063 890 900
Seed : 91 89 87 87
Residual : 78 82 78 78
Use, total : 2,804 2,933 2,715 2,725
Ending stocks : 248 208 185 175
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.38 4.95- 5.85 5.05 - 5.85
:
:
: Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL: :
Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,360 2,360
Production : 18,420 18,898 18,760 18,760
Imports : 73 46 65 65
Supply, total : 20,488 21,821 21,185 21,185
Domestic : 16,210 16,942 17,400 17,450
Exports : 1,401 2,520 2,300 2,300
Use, total : 17,611 19,461 19,700 19,750
Ending stocks : 2,877 2,360 1,485 1,435
Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.46 19.50- 20.00-
: 22.50 23.00
:
: Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL: :
Beginning stocks : 293 383 240 240
Production : 39,385 40,292 39,470 39,470
Imports : 51 143 240 240
Supply, total : 39,729 40,818 39,950 39,950
Domestic : 31,643 33,077 33,500 33,500
Exports : 7,703 7,502 6,200 6,200
Use, total : 39,346 40,578 39,700 39,700
Ending stocks : 383 240 250 250
Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 167.73 155.00- 160.00-
: 185.00 180.00
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices:
soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil,
simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48
percent, Decatur.
WASDE-393-14
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
======================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=====================
: : Estimate : November December
======================================================================
: 1,000 short tons, raw value
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,180 1,295 1,288
Production 2/3/ : 8,770 7,906 8,305 8,255
Beet sugar : 4,680 3,914 4,315 4,315
Cane sugar 4/ : 4,090 3,992 3,990 3,940
Imports 2/ : 1,591 1,535 1,565 1,565
TRQ 5/ : 1,277 1,149 1,245 1,245
Other program 6/ : 238 305 260 260
Non-program 7/ : 76 81 60 60
Total supply : 12,580 11,621 11,165 11,108
:
Exports 2/8/ : 141 108 125 125
Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,130 10,137 9,780 9,780
Domestic food use : 9,998 9,945 9,600 9,600
Other 9/ : 132 193 180 180
Miscellaneous 10/ : 129 88 0 0
Use, total : 10,400 10,333 9,905 9,905
Ending stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,288 1,260 1,203
Private : 1,396 1,076 NA NA
Other 11/ : 784 212 NA NA
:
Stocks to use ratio : 21.0 12.5 12.7 12.1
======================================================================
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical
data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S.
Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on December
Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates
Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected
2002/03): FL 1,980 (2,070); HI 251 (275); LA 1,587 (1,420); TX 174
(175); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ)
with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the
fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available
TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the
re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and
other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products
for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Mostly residual
statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, uncommitted
CCC-owned sugar.
WASDE-393-15
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : November December
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.38 14.38
Harvested : 13.05 13.83 12.86 12.86
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 632 705 665 648
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.43 7.43
Production : 17.19 20.30 17.82 17.38
Imports : 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03
Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 25.27 24.83
Domestic use : 8.86 7.72 7.70 7.50
Exports : 6.74 11.00 10.80 10.80
Use, total : 15.60 18.72 18.50 18.30
Unaccounted 3/ : -0.48 0.18 -0.03 0.03
Ending stocks : 6.00 7.43 6.80 6.50
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 29.8 36.6 5/
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
5/ Weighted average for August-October 2002. USDA is prohibited by law from
publishing cotton price projections.
===============================================================================
Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of
Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending
stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the
quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing
year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 34.6
percent.
WASDE-393-16
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2000/01
:
World 3/ : 206.99 584.00 101.65 107.04 586.56 102.82 204.43
United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.29 36.30 28.90 23.85
Total foreign : 181.14 523.24 99.20 98.76 550.26 73.92 180.58
Major exporters 4/ : 24.58 171.58 3.44 54.60 111.60 59.74 28.26
Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59
Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 4.00 6.89 15.93 4.63
Canada : 7.70 26.80 0.20 3.70 7.73 17.32 9.66
EU-15 : 12.65 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.23 13.38
Major importers 5/ : 121.27 144.40 50.37 13.40 204.79 2.59 108.66
Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.29 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70
China : 102.94 99.64 0.20 10.00 110.28 0.62 91.88
N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10
Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.45 28.87 2.73 9.99 28.88 2.34 4.84
India : 13.08 76.37 0.44 0.50 66.82 1.57 21.50
FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38
Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40
Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45
Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45
:
: 2001/02 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ : 204.43 579.47 108.81 109.37 585.32 108.81 198.58
United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.29 32.72 26.16 21.15
Total foreign : 180.58 526.21 105.88 104.08 552.60 82.65 177.43
Major exporters 4/ : 28.26 151.79 10.25 55.25 111.84 54.98 23.49
Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55
Australia : 4.63 24.00 0.08 4.00 7.03 16.41 5.27
Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 3.70 7.81 16.27 6.49
EU-15 : 13.38 91.73 9.82 47.50 92.26 11.49 11.18
Major importers 5/ : 108.66 141.31 48.99 12.45 203.48 4.12 91.36
Brazil : 0.70 3.25 7.10 0.40 10.15 0.00 0.90
China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59
N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.26 0.31 29.08 0.25 5.74
Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.85 1.38 8.68 0.35 1.61
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.84 34.69 1.74 10.94 30.83 4.14 6.29
India : 21.50 68.76 0.03 0.50 61.21 3.09 26.00
FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.59 19.66 68.65 13.80 17.80
Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.55 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.40
Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20
Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.08 2.20 12.64 5.49 3.70
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-393-17
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2002/03 (Projected)
World 3/ :
November : 198.22 569.34 101.38 115.22 595.10 101.60 172.46
December : 198.58 568.72 103.12 117.93 597.81 102.60 169.49
United States :
November : 21.15 43.99 2.18 4.08 31.73 25.86 9.73
December : 21.15 43.99 2.18 4.08 32.01 25.86 9.46
Total foreign :
November : 177.07 525.35 99.20 111.14 563.36 75.74 162.73
December : 177.43 524.73 100.95 113.85 565.80 76.74 160.03
Major exporters 4/ :
November : 23.49 144.00 7.41 59.23 116.03 39.80 19.07
December : 23.49 143.40 8.46 61.83 118.63 38.30 18.42
Argentina Nov : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66
Dec : 0.55 13.50 0.01 0.05 4.60 8.80 0.66
Australia Nov : 5.27 11.00 0.10 4.20 7.18 6.00 3.19
Dec : 5.27 10.50 0.15 4.50 7.48 6.00 2.44
Canada Nov : 6.49 15.50 0.30 3.70 8.05 9.00 5.24
Dec : 6.49 15.70 0.30 5.00 9.35 8.00 5.14
EU-15 Nov : 11.18 103.50 7.00 51.28 96.20 15.50 9.99
Dec : 11.18 103.70 8.00 52.28 97.20 15.50 10.19
Major importers 5/ :
November : 91.10 140.29 46.90 10.75 201.03 3.98 73.28
December : 91.36 140.59 47.20 10.85 201.38 3.98 73.80
Brazil Nov : 0.90 3.30 6.50 0.35 9.90 0.00 0.80
Dec : 0.90 3.10 7.00 0.35 10.20 0.00 0.80
China Nov : 76.59 92.00 1.00 7.00 106.11 1.50 61.97
Dec : 76.59 92.00 1.00 7.00 106.11 1.50 61.97
N. Africa 6/ Nov : 5.78 11.11 17.00 0.30 29.08 0.20 4.61
Dec : 5.74 11.11 17.00 0.30 28.98 0.20 4.67
Pakistan Nov : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45
Dec : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45
SE Asia 7/ Nov : 1.61 0.00 9.80 1.80 9.70 0.28 1.43
Dec : 1.61 0.00 9.60 1.90 9.55 0.28 1.38
Selected other :
East. Europe Nov : 6.29 30.80 2.25 10.44 30.58 3.35 5.41
Dec : 6.29 30.79 2.25 10.44 30.57 3.35 5.41
India Nov : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 64.05 6.00 28.00
Dec : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 64.05 6.00 28.00
FSU-12 8/ Nov : 17.80 95.75 3.12 24.66 74.93 19.16 22.57
Dec : 17.80 95.75 3.12 24.66 74.93 21.66 20.07
Russia Nov : 6.40 49.50 0.50 17.50 41.50 6.50 8.40
Dec : 6.40 49.50 0.50 17.50 41.50 7.50 7.40
Kazakstan Nov : 5.20 13.00 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.00 7.55
Dec : 5.20 13.00 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.00 7.55
Ukraine Nov : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 7.50 3.70
Dec : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 9.00 2.20
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-393-18
World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2000/01
:
World 3/ : 209.87 859.80 102.47 587.19 880.84 105.78 188.83
United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70
Total foreign : 161.01 586.67 99.75 427.37 665.45 49.16 136.13
Major exporters 4/ : 9.77 62.29 3.21 36.13 48.44 19.68 7.15
Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22
Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.57 6.09 4.36 1.11
Canada : 5.67 24.03 2.59 20.20 24.32 3.64 4.33
Major importers 5/ : 31.79 155.71 69.39 161.71 217.85 10.69 28.36
EU-15 : 19.52 107.19 3.03 78.20 102.81 10.05 16.88
Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33
Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.09 36.07 0.02 3.06
Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.61 1.57
South Korea : 1.04 0.47 8.89 6.53 9.17 0.00 1.23
Selected other :
China : 102.72 113.95 2.42 93.38 128.19 7.30 83.60
East. Europe : 4.75 37.01 2.91 30.66 40.99 1.25 2.43
FSU-12 6/ : 3.55 49.49 1.09 29.09 45.69 2.46 5.97
Russia : 0.88 28.20 0.76 15.60 26.78 0.57 2.49
Ukraine : 1.19 12.99 0.07 7.55 10.83 1.45 1.98
:
: 2001/02 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ : 188.83 887.51 100.08 601.75 902.11 101.16 174.23
United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 158.97 217.32 54.71 45.09
Total foreign : 136.13 625.65 97.52 442.78 684.79 46.45 129.14
Major exporters 4/ : 7.15 61.43 5.14 36.31 48.52 18.19 7.02
Argentina : 1.22 18.45 0.03 6.20 8.26 10.11 1.32
Australia : 1.11 11.08 0.20 5.11 6.62 4.33 1.44
Canada : 4.33 22.41 3.87 20.61 24.84 2.50 3.26
Major importers 5/ : 28.36 158.58 67.48 161.93 218.12 5.40 30.89
EU-15 : 16.88 105.71 4.27 77.87 102.31 4.97 19.59
Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.95 15.52 20.15 0.00 2.34
Mexico : 3.06 27.17 8.91 20.13 36.12 0.05 2.98
Southeast Asia : 1.57 15.27 3.75 14.27 18.95 0.39 1.26
South Korea : 1.23 0.47 8.83 6.76 9.39 0.00 1.14
Selected other :
China : 8
