USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - July 11, 2002
WASDE-388 July 11, 2002
Note: This report adopts U.S. area, yield, and production forecasts for
winter wheat, durum, other spring wheat, barley, and oats released today by
the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). For other crops, area
estimates reflect the June 28 NASS Acreage report, and methods used to
project yield are noted on each table. Survey-based area, yield, and
production forecasts reported by NASS will be adopted in the August 12
issue of this report.
WHEAT: Projected 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are down 35
million bushels from last month as lower production more than offsets
reduced domestic use and higher reported carryin stocks. Forecast
winter wheat production is 60 million bushels below last month due to
lower yields and reduced area. Also, the first survey-based forecast of
spring wheat (including durum) production is down 15 million bushels
from last month's projections, which were based on March intentions
and average yields. Projected feed and residual use is reduced 25
million bushels from last month due to tighter wheat supplies and
higher wheat prices relative to feed grains. The projected price range
is up 10 cents on each end to $2.75 to $3.35 per bushel.
Global 2002/03 supply and use projections show numerous changes
from last month, largely driven by smaller expected production.
Argentine production is reduced 2.5 million tons as financial
constraints will prevent farmers from planting as much area as
expected earlier. Canada's and Romania's wheat crops are each down
1 million tons due to dry conditions. Dry conditions also account for a
0.5-million-ton reduction in expected Ukraine production. Crops in
China and India are each reduced 2 million tons because of lower area
in China and reductions in both area and yields for India. Projected
exports are reduced a combined 3 million tons for Argentina and
Canada due to the lower production, but India and Ukraine are
expected to maintain exports at last month's projected levels by
reducing domestic use and stocks. Reduced Argentine and Canadian
exports are offset by increased exports by the EU and Kazakstan and
reduced global imports. Projected imports by China are down 1 million
tons from last month, to 2 million tons, due to ample stocks and
increasing global prices. Projected global 2002/03 ending stocks are
down sharply from last month to the lowest level since 1997/98.
COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are up
165 million bushels from last month because of larger production and
smaller exports. Projected production is raised 140 million bushels
from last month due to increased area. Estimated harvested area
reported in the June 28 Acreage report is 1.1 million acres above the
June 12 projection. Projected corn yields are unchanged from last
month. Projected exports are down 25 million bushels due to an
expected increase in competition. This month's 2002/03 projected
price range for corn is down 10 cents on each end to $1.80 to $2.20,
compared with an estimated $1.91 for 2001/02.
Projected 2002/03 global coarse grain production is up from last
month, led by gains in China and the United States. China's corn
production, at 125 million tons, is 5 million above last month and 11
million above the revised 2001/02 crop. China's National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS) recently reported the 2001/02 corn crop at 114
million tons, 4 million above USDA's estimate. While the NBS only
reported total grain area, other sources in China indicate the corn area
was larger than USDA's month-earlier estimate. With last year's corn
area increased and indications that this year's corn area is up from
2001/02, projected 2002/03 corn area is raised from last month. The
larger Chinese corn crop is only partially offset by reductions in barley
and corn production in Canada due to recent reports that planted area
of these crops were lower than intentions. However, the biggest
impact on expected world trade comes from a 1.4-million-ton increase
in Argentina's 2001/02 corn crop. The bigger crop will mean
increased competition for U.S. corn exports in its 2002/03
September-August marketing year. The larger 2001/02 and 2002/03
corn crops in China and the U.S. 2002/03 corn crop account for most
of the projected increase in global 2002/03 coarse grain ending stocks
from last month.
RICE: U.S. rice production in 2002/03 is projected at 204 million cwt,
down 2 percent from last month and 4 percent below record 2001/02.
Estimated harvested area of 3.23 million acres reported in the NASS
Acreage report is 2 percent below last month and nearly 3 percent
below 2001/02. Average yield is adjusted slightly higher because of a
change in the distribution of reported area by type of rice. Long-grain
rice production is projected at 153 million cwt, 4 percent below last
month, and 8 percent below the 2001/02 record. Combined medium-
and short-grain rice production is projected at 51 million cwt, 6
percent above last month, and 7 percent above 2001/02. Projected
imports in 2002/03 are increased slightly from last month. Beginning
stocks in 2002/03 are lowered to 35.8 million cwt, 12 percent below
last month, but 26 percent above 2001/02. Domestic and residual
use is raised to 126.2 million cwt, up slightly from last month and 3
percent above 2001/02 because of an increase in projected seed use.
Exports in 2002/03 are projected at 92 million cwt, unchanged from
last month but 4 percent below the revised 2001/02 estimate. Ending
stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 35.1 million cwt, 19.5 percent
below last month and 2 percent below the revised 2001/02 level. The
season-average price range for 2002/03 is raised 50 cents per cwt on
each end to $4.50 to $5.00 per cwt compared to a revised $4.18 per
cwt for 2001/02.
U.S. exports in 2001/02 are forecast at 96 million cwt, 5 million cwt
above last month, and the largest exports since 1994/95. Rough rice
exports are increased to a record 31 million cwt and milled exports
(rough-equivalent basis) are raised to 65 million cwt, up 3 and 2
million cwt, respectively, from a month ago. The increase is based
largely on Census data reported through April and data from the U.S.
Export Sales report.
Global rice production in 2002/03 is projected at 394.5 million tons,
1.1 million tons below last month's largely trend-based projection, and
slightly below the revised 2001/02 level. Global consumption in
2002/03 is projected at a record 409.8 million tons, nearly unchanged
from last month, and 1 percent above the revised 2001/02 estimate.
Global production is projected to exceed consumption for the third
consecutive year resulting in a further drawdown in stocks to 109
million tons, 2.4 million tons below last month and 15.3 million tons
below 2001/02. Global exports in 2002/03 are projected at 25.6
million tons, up slightly from last month and 2001/02.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2002/03 are projected at
7.4 million metric tons, down from last month but up 0.4 million tons
from last year. Reduced U.S. production and carry-in stocks and
slightly higher projected crush this month more than offset reduced
export prospects. U.S. oilseed production is projected at 87.8 million
tons, down 2 million tons from 2001/02, primarily due to reduced
soybean and cottonseed production. Soybean production is projected
at 2.86 billion bushels (77.8 million tons), down 10 million bushels
from last month, because harvested acreage reported in the June 28
Acreage report was 200,000 acres below the June projection. U.S.
soybean export prospects are reduced 10 million bushels this month to
955 million bushels. Large competitor stocks and prospects for record
soybean crops in South America will hold U.S. exports well below the
2001/02 record level. U.S. soybean crush is projected to increase 5
million bushels to 1.72 billion bushels due to increased domestic meal
demand.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2002/03 is projected at
$4.15 to $5.05 per bushel, compared with $4.30 per bushel for
2001/02. The midpoint of the projected price range is increased 15
cents from last month primarily reflecting tighter U.S. supplies.
Soybean meal prices are forecast at $150 to $180 per short ton,
compared with $165 per ton estimated for 2001/02. Soybean oil
prices are projected higher this month at 15.25 to 18.25 cents, and up
from 2001/02 as global vegetable oil stocks decline.
Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at a record 328.5
million tons, up 5 million tons from 2001/02. Reduced U.S. oilseed
production is more than offset by increased foreign oilseed production,
projected at 240.6 million tons, up 7 million tons from 2001/02. Most
of the foreign gains are for soybeans. Combined production gains for
Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia will push South American
soybean production above the U.S. crop for the first time.
Sunflowerseed production is also projected higher for 2002/03, led by
gains in Argentina and the former Soviet Union. Global production of
rapeseed is projected to decline slightly as increases for the EU are
more than offset by reductions for China, India, and Australia.
Declines are also projected for cottonseed production.
Global consumption of protein meal is expected to grow at about 3
percent in 2002/03, down slightly from 2001/02. Most of the gain
will be for soybean meal, with strong increases for Latin America and
for countries in Eastern Europe and the Mid-east. Strong soybean
meal consumption gains are also projected for China as soybean
imports rebound from the slowdown earlier this year.
SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year 2002/03 is
decreased 110,000 tons, raw value, from last month, based on fewer
acres for harvest. The 2002/03 tariff rate quota has not been
announced.
For 2001/02, non-program imports are decreased 10,000 tons due to
lower high-tier imports from Mexico. The year-ending stocks-to-use
ratio is 16.0 percent, down from 16.1 percent last month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast total U.S. meat
production in 2002 is raised from last month due to higher expected
beef and pork production. Cow slaughter has been above earlier
expectations and steer weights in the second quarter were heavy.
Increased cow slaughter and large feedlot placements of heavyweight
cattle in May suggest that producers may not be planning to expand
herds given current forage conditions. The Cattle report and Cattle on
Feed report, scheduled for release on July 19, will provide an
indication of producer intentions. Hog weights remain high and are
expected to boost pork production in 2002. Poultry production
forecasts are unchanged from last month.
Projected pork production for the first half of 2003 is raised from last
month. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released June 28,
indicated that producers intend to have 2 percent more sows farrow in
the third quarter and 1 percent more farrow in the fourth quarter.
Projected beef and poultry production are unchanged.
Price forecasts are largely unchanged from last month. Hog prices are
reduced slightly in 2003 in response to higher production. Turkey
price forecasts for 2002 and 2003 are raised as demand for whole
birds remains strong. Prices for other species are unchanged.
Dairy production is adjusted fractionally. Demand for fat-basis
products remains relatively weak and commercial stocks have been
growing. Cheese and butter prices are expected to decline through the
end of 2001/02 and sales to CCC of cheese and nonfat dry milk are
expected to increase. The forecast for Class III milk is reduced to
$11.00 to $11.10 per cwt and the forecast for Class IV is lowered to
$11.15 to $11.35 per cwt. The all milk price is projected lower than
last month.
Price weakness is expected to continue into 2002/03 as large
commercial stocks of dairy products will burden the market through
much of the year. Projected CCC net removals of nonfat dry milk are
raised from last month. Class III milk prices are projected at $9.85 to
$10.75 per cwt and Class IV prices are also lowered to $10.50 to
$11.60. The all milk price is forecast at $11.60 to $12.50 per cwt.
COTTON: This month's U.S. 2002/03 projections show slight
decreases in production, exports, and ending stocks. Production is
projected at 17.5 million bales, down 1.7 percent from last month.
Lower planted area reflected in the June 28 Acreage report is about
offset by a reduction in projected abandonment. A slight shift in area
from higher- to lower-yielding States reduces the national average
yield. Domestic mill use is unchanged. A reduction in the export
projection reflects lower U.S. supplies combined with increased
competition from China. Ending stocks are reduced marginally to 6.6
million bales.
The 2002/03 world projections indicate sharply higher beginning
stocks. However, 2002/03 ending stocks are little changed because
of lower production and higher consumption relative to last month.
World beginning stocks of 47.1 million bales are nearly 5 percent
above last month, reflecting reductions in China's consumption from
1993/94 through 2000/01; these revisions are based on evidence that
China's stocks are larger than previously estimated. Projected
2002/03 world production of about 90.0 million bales is down 1.0
million from last month and 8 percent from 2001/02. China and the
United States account for more than 80 percent of the reduction from
last season. World consumption is raised to 96.2 million bales, based
on further evidence of recovery from last year's recession. Ending
stocks are now projected at 41.2 million bales, up 1 percent from last
month.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was
prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee
members are listed on page 34.
APPROVED:
KEITH J. COLLINS
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on August 12,
2002.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be
released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2002: Aug. 12,
Sep. 12, Oct. 11, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10.
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WASDE-388-6
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 1,839.20 2,368.24 233.14 1,875.91 492.33
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,857.35 2,349.67 231.39 1,894.34 455.33
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 1,881.50 2,336.14 231.73 1,920.27 415.86
July : 1,877.83 2,333.17 229.23 1,917.28 415.89
Wheat :
2000/01 : 583.88 759.28 102.78 590.62 168.66
2001/02 (Est.) : 579.58 748.23 106.96 587.59 160.64
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 589.78 752.48 105.62 596.41 156.07
July : 580.72 741.36 104.22 594.28 147.08
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 858.08 1,067.77 105.60 880.79 186.98
2001/02 (Est.) : 882.81 1,069.79 99.30 899.45 170.33
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 896.21 1,062.19 100.60 913.86 148.33
July : 902.67 1,073.00 99.37 913.22 159.79
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 397.23 541.19 24.76 404.50 136.69
2001/02 (Est.) : 394.96 531.66 25.14 407.30 124.36
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 395.51 521.46 25.50 410.00 111.46
July : 394.45 518.81 25.64 409.78 109.03
:
: United States
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.07 255.40 77.43
2001/02 (Est.) : 321.90 405.21 85.08 252.69 67.45
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 323.36 396.40 87.01 255.73 53.66
July : 324.63 398.23 86.37 255.02 56.83
Wheat :
2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.87 36.34 23.85
2001/02 (Est.) : 53.28 79.98 26.13 32.85 21.01
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 49.61 73.09 24.49 33.48 15.12
July : 47.59 71.46 24.49 32.82 14.14
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.51 215.49 52.70
2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.16 55.91 215.95 45.30
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 267.24 315.10 59.64 218.28 37.18
July : 270.66 318.82 59.00 218.23 41.59
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.69 3.58 0.89
2001/02 (Est.) : 6.76 8.07 3.05 3.89 1.14
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 6.51 8.22 2.88 3.97 1.36
July : 6.39 7.95 2.88 3.97 1.10
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye,
millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).
WASDE-388-7
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: Foreign 3/
Total grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 1,499.37 1,947.33 145.07 1,620.51 414.89
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,535.44 1,944.46 146.31 1,641.66 387.89
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 1,558.15 1,939.73 144.72 1,664.54 362.20
July : 1,553.20 1,934.94 142.86 1,662.25 359.06
Wheat :
2000/01 : 523.12 670.23 73.92 554.28 144.81
2001/02 (Est.) : 526.30 668.25 80.83 554.74 139.63
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 540.17 679.39 81.13 562.93 140.96
July : 533.12 669.90 79.73 561.46 132.94
Coarse grains 5/ :
2000/01 : 584.96 743.06 49.09 665.30 134.28
2001/02 (Est.) : 620.95 752.63 43.39 683.50 125.03
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 628.97 747.09 40.97 695.58 111.15
July : 632.02 754.19 40.37 694.99 118.20
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 391.29 534.04 22.07 400.92 135.81
2001/02 (Est.) : 388.20 523.59 22.09 403.41 123.23
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 389.00 513.25 22.62 406.03 110.10
July : 388.06 510.86 22.77 405.81 107.93
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains
and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed
grains.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
2000/01 : 88.79 134.09 26.61 92.09 42.69
2001/02 (Est.) : 98.02 140.70 29.16 93.72 47.06
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 91.00 135.92 30.70 95.50 40.72
July : 89.95 137.00 30.48 96.19 41.18
: United States
2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.76 8.86 6.00
2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.60 7.70
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 17.80 25.53 11.00 7.80 6.70
July : 17.50 25.23 10.80 7.80 6.60
: Foreign 3/
2000/01 : 71.61 112.97 19.85 83.23 36.68
2001/02 (Est.) : 77.72 114.37 18.16 86.12 39.36
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 73.20 110.39 19.70 87.70 34.02
July : 72.45 111.78 19.68 88.39 34.58
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.
WASDE-388-8
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 313.40 348.46 71.51 254.83 35.48
2001/02 (Est.) : 323.32 358.80 70.21 264.57 34.47
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 331.56 365.00
July : 328.46 362.93 73.45 271.28 32.93
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 175.62 181.49 56.79 175.94 5.32
2001/02 (Est.) : 182.62 187.94 59.41 182.09 5.44
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June :
July : 187.88 193.31 61.24 187.38 5.40
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 89.24 97.38 34.90 88.73 8.41
2001/02 (Est.) : 91.12 99.54 36.34 91.37 7.19
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June :
July : 93.51 100.73 37.48 93.31 7.05
:
: United States
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 28.08 49.02 7.82
2001/02 (Est.) : 89.86 98.22 29.46 50.88 7.05
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 88.17 96.56 27.12 50.99 8.22
July : 87.82 95.40 26.84 51.11 7.42
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 38.18 39.64 7.19 32.06 0.40
2001/02 (Est.) : 39.25 40.72 7.29 33.12 0.30
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 39.38 40.81 7.02 33.52 0.28
July : 39.47 40.73 7.00 33.46 0.28
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 9.50 12.38 1.06 9.64 1.69
2001/02 (Est.) : 9.75 12.91 1.51 9.86 1.54
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 9.86 13.27 1.28 10.42 1.44
July : 9.88 12.98 1.36 10.15 1.46
:
: Foreign 3/
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 228.51 253.77 43.43 205.81 27.66
2001/02 (Est.) : 233.46 260.58 40.75 213.69 27.42
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June : 243.39 268.43
July : 240.64 267.54 46.61 220.17 25.51
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 137.44 141.85 49.59 143.89 4.93
2001/02 (Est.) : 143.37 147.23 52.12 148.96 5.14
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June :
July : 148.40 152.58 54.24 153.93 5.13
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 79.74 84.99 33.84 79.09 6.72
2001/02 (Est.) : 81.37 86.63 34.83 81.52 5.64
2002/03 (Proj.) :
June :
July : 83.63 87.75 36.12 83.16 5.59
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an
Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to
world minus United States.
WASDE-388-9
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : June July
===============================================================================
Area : Million acres
Planted : 62.6 59.6 59.0 * 60.1
Harvested : 53.1 48.7 47.1 * 47.6
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 42.0 40.2 38.7 * 36.7
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 950 876 758 772
Production : 2,232 1,958 1,823 1,749
Imports : 90 105 105 105
Supply, total : 3,272 2,939 2,685 2,626
Food : 956 940 950 950
Seed : 80 81 80 81
Feed and residual : 299 185 200 175
Domestic, total : 1,335 1,207 1,230 1,206
Exports : 1,061 960 900 900
Use, total : 2,396 2,167 2,130 2,106
Ending stocks : 876 772 555 520
CCC inventory : 97 99
Free stocks : 779 673
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 2.65- 3.25 2.75- 3.35
===============================================================================
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use
===============================================================================
Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : :
June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total
===============================================================================
2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876
Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,958
Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 314 162 2,939
Domestic use : 464 304 260 96 84 1,207
Exports : 350 220 200 145 45 960
Use, total : 814 524 460 241 129 2,167
Ending stocks, total : 365 226 75 73 33 772
:
2002/03 (projected) :
Beginning stocks : 365 226 75 73 33 772
Production : 634 443 341 246 84 1,749
Supply, total 3/ : 1,000 731 416 326 152 2,626
Domestic use : 460 313 247 101 85 1,206
Exports : 320 275 115 155 35 900
Use, total : 780 588 362 256 120 2,106
Ending stocks, total : 220 143 54 70 32 520
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1.
2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes
imports. * For June, winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in June
Crop Production. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum)
projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1997-2001.
For July: Area planted, area harvested, yield and production as reported in
July Crop Production report.
WASDE-388-10
U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : June July
===============================================================================
FEED GRAINS :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 99.1 95.4 97.3 * 98.4 *
Harvested : 87.7 83.6 85.8 * 87.1 *
Yield per harvested : Metric tons
acre : 3.11 3.13 3.11 3.10
: Million metric tons
Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.0 45.3
Production : 272.9 261.7 267.0 270.5
Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.8
Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 314.7 318.5
Feed and residual : 159.9 157.7 157.0 157.0
Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 57.9 60.9 60.9
Domestic, total : 215.2 215.6 217.9 217.9
Exports : 56.5 55.9 59.6 59.0
Use, total : 271.7 271.5 277.5 276.9
Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.3 37.2 41.6
CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2
Free stocks : 52.4 45.1
Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.9
:
CORN :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 79.6 75.8 78.0 * 78.9 *
Harvested : 72.4 68.8 71.0 * 72.1 *
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 136.9 138.2 135.8 * 135.8 *
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,621 1,621
Production : 9,915 9,507 9,650 9,790
Imports : 7 10 15 15
Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 11,286 11,426
Feed and residual : 5,848 5,825 5,750 5,750
Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,045 2,160 2,160
Domestic, total : 7,805 7,870 7,910 7,910
Exports : 1,935 1,925 2,075 2,050
Use, total : 9,740 9,795 9,985 9,960
Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,621 1,301 1,466
CCC inventory : 8 5
Free stocks : 1,891 1,616
Outstanding loans : 253 225
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.91 1.90- 2.30 1.80- 2.20
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers. * For June, corn planted and
harvested acres adjusted down from March intentions because of excessive
moisture in the Midwest. For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as
reported in June Acreage report. For June and July: Projected yield derived
from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001 period, adjusted for planting
progress.
WASDE-388-11
U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : June July
===============================================================================
: Million bushels
SORGHUM :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.0 * 9.3 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.7 * 7.9 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 69.0 * 69.0 *
Beginning stocks : 65 42 46 46
Production : 471 515 533 546
Imports : 0 0 0 0
Supply, total : 536 556 579 592
Feed and residual : 220 215 225 235
Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 50 50
Total domestic : 255 260 275 285
Exports : 239 250 250 250
Use, total : 494 510 525 535
Ending stocks, total : 42 46 54 57
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.85 1.75- 2.15 1.65- 2.05
:
BARLEY :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.1 * 5.0 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.5 * 4.5 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 62.1 * 59.0 *
Beginning stocks : 111 106 84 93
Production : 319 250 278 265
Imports : 29 23 30 30
Supply, total : 459 379 392 388
Feed and residual : 123 86 110 100
Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172
Total domestic : 295 258 282 272
Exports : 58 28 25 25
Use, total : 353 286 307 297
Ending stocks, total : 106 93 85 91
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.23 2.05- 2.45 1.95- 2.35
:
OATS :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.1 * 5.1 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.5 * 2.6 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.3 61.2 * 56.1 *
Beginning stocks : 76 73 55 63
Production : 150 117 155 148
Imports : 106 98 100 100
Supply, total : 332 288 310 311
Feed and residual : 189 149 175 175
Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72
Total domestic : 257 221 247 247
Exports : 2 3 2 2
Use, total : 259 224 249 249
Ending stocks, total : 73 63 61 62
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.58 1.00- 1.40 1.00- 1.40
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers. * For June-- Sorghum and barley:
Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested
for 1999-2001. For sorghum, barley, and oats projected yield derived from
simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported
in March 28, 2002, Prospective Plantings. For July-- Sorghum: Area planted and
area harvested as reported in the June Acreage report. Projected yield derived
from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001 period. Barley and oats: Area,
yield and production as reported in July Crop Production.
WASDE-388-12
U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
(Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : June July
===============================================================================
TOTAL :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 3.06 3.34 3.32 * 3.25 *
Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.30 * 3.23 *
Yield per harvested : Pounds
acre : 6,281 6,429 6,299 * 6,322 *
:
: Million hundredweight
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 40.4 35.8
Production : 190.9 213.0 208.0 204.0
Imports : 10.8 13.2 13.2 13.5
Supply, total : 229.2 254.8 261.7 253.3
Domestic & residual 3/ : 114.3 123.0 126.1 126.2
Exports, total 4/ : 86.4 96.0 92.0 92.0
Rough : 22.7 31.0 27.0 27.0
Milled (rough equiv.) : 63.7 65.0 65.0 65.0
Use, total : 200.7 219.0 218.1 218.2
Ending stocks : 28.5 35.8 43.6 35.1
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 70.0 69.0 69.0
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.18 4.00- 4.50 4.50- 5.00
:
LONG GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70
Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,130
Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 28.9 26.0
Production : 128.8 165.3 160.0 153.0
Supply, total 7/ : 152.8 186.0 198.1 188.2
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 75.1 86.0 90.0 89.9
Exports 8/ : 66.1 74.0 73.0 73.0
Use, total : 141.2 160.0 163.0 162.9
Ending stocks : 11.6 26.0 35.1 25.3
:
:
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62
Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733
Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.3 8.6
Production : 62.1 47.7 48.0 51.0
Supply, total 7/ : 75.1 67.6 62.3 63.8
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.2 37.0 36.1 36.3
Exports 8/ : 20.3 22.0 19.0 19.0
Use, total : 59.5 59.0 55.1 55.3
Ending stocks : 15.6 8.6 7.2 8.5
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August
1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type
undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil.
cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.3. 3/ Residual includes unreported
use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total
rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending
stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports
are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e.,
the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the
quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are
estimated. * For June: Planted acres reported in March 28, 2002 Prospective
Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by
State and type of rice for 1997-2001. For July: Area planted and area
harvested as reported in June Acreage report. For June and July: Projected
yield is derived from a simple linear trend fit by type of rice over 1982-2001
period.
WASDE-388-13
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : June July
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS: : Million acres
Area :
Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.5 * 73.0 **
Harvested : 72.4 73.0 72.2 * 72.0 **
:
: Bushels
Yield per harvested :
acre : 38.1 39.6 39.7 ** 39.7 **
:
: Million bushels
:
Beginning stocks : 290 248 240 210
Production : 2,758 2,891 2,870 2,860
Imports : 4 3 4 4
Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 3,114 3,074
Crushings : 1,641 1,705 1,710 1,715
Exports : 1,000 1,045 965 955
Seed : 91 89 89 89
Residual : 73 92 _3/ 84 84
Use, total : 2,804 2,931 2,849 2,844
Ending stocks : 248 210 265 230
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.30 4.00- 4.90 4.15 - 5.05
:
:
: Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL: :
Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,645 2,735
Production : 18,434 18,920 _4/ 19,170 19,225
Imports : 73 38 65 65
Supply, total : 20,502 21,835 21,880 22,025
Domestic : 16,219 16,800 17,500 17,300
Exports : 1,406 2,300 1,950 2,150
Use, total : 17,625 19,100 19,450 19,450
Ending stocks : 2,877 2,735 2,430 2,575
Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 15.50 15.00- 15.25-
: 18.00 18.25
:
: Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL: :
Beginning stocks : 293 383 275 275
Production : 39,389 40,552 _4/ 40,660 40,860
Imports : 51 190 65 65
Supply, total : 39,733 41,125 41,000 41,200
Domestic : 31,687 33,100 33,300 33,500
Exports : 7,662 7,750 7,450 7,450
Use, total : 39,349 40,850 40,750 40,950
Ending stocks : 383 275 250 250
Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 165.00 145.00- 150.00-
: 175.00 180.00
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices:
Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil,
simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48
percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through June, coupled
with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/
Based on October year crush estimate of 1,700 million bushels. *For June,
planted and harvested area adjusted from Prospective Plantings to reflect wet
weather in the Eastern Corn Belt. For July, area planted and harvested are as
reported in the June 28 Acreage report. **Projected yield based on 1978-01
regional trend analysis.
WASDE-388-14
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
======================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=====================
: : Estimate : June July
======================================================================
: 1,000 short tons, raw value
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,194 1,630 1,620
Production 2/3/ : 8,674 8,017 8,750 8,640
Beet sugar : 4,592 4,000 4,500 4,450
Cane sugar 4/ : 4,082 4,017 4,250 4,190
Imports 2/ : 1,574 1,529 NA NA
TRQ 5/ : 1,260 1,179 NA NA
Other program 6/ : 238 260 260 260
Non-program 7/ : 76 80 60 60
Total supply : 12,467 11,730 NA NA
:
Exports 2/8/ : 141 125 125 125
Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,130 9,985 10,085 10,085
Domestic food use : 9,998 9,800 9,900 9,900
Other 9/ : 132 185 185 185
Miscellaneous 10/ : 1 0 0 0
Use, total : 10,272 10,110 10,210 10,210
Ending stocks 2/ : 2,194 1,620 NA NA
Private : 1,410 1,360 NA NA
Other 11/ : 784 260 NA NA
:
Stocks to use ratio : 21.4 16.0 NA NA
======================================================================
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical
data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S.
Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on analyses by
the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production
by state for 2001/02 (projected 2002/03): FL 1,996 (2,040); HI 270
(270); LA 1,575 (1,700); TX 174 (175); PR 2 (5). 5/ Actual arrivals
under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries,
and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually
arrived. The 2001/02 available TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons.
6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs.
7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to
sugar containing products for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and
feed. 10/ For 2000/2001, includes Commodity Credit Corporation sales
to ethanol producers and residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For
2001/02, includes sugar owned by the CCC as of July 9, 2002. Season-
ending stocks will be a function of market and program developments.
WASDE-388-15
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : June July
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.77 * 14.42 *
Harvested : 13.05 13.83 13.35 * 13.30 *
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 632 705 640 * 632 *
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.70 7.70
Production : 17.19 20.30 17.80 17.50
Imports : 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03
Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 25.52 25.22
Domestic use : 8.86 7.60 7.80 7.80
Exports : 6.76 11.00 11.00 10.80
Use, total : 15.62 18.60 18.80 18.60
Unaccounted 3/ : -0.51 0.03 0.03 0.03
Ending stocks : 6.00 7.70 6.70 6.60
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 31.0 5/ 5/
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 2001/02 price
is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-May. 5/ USDA is
prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * For June,
planted area reported in March 28 Prospective Plantings and projected harvested
area based on 1992-2001 average acreage abandonment by State. For July,
planted area reported in June 28 Acreage and projected harvested area based on
1992-2001 average acreage abandonment by State, adjusted for conditions to
date. Projected yields for both June and July based on 1992-2001 average yield
by State.
Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of
Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending
stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the
quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing
year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2001/02 is 40.6
percent.
WASDE-388-16
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2000/01
:
World 3/ : 175.40 583.88 101.46 104.99 590.62 102.78 168.66
United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.14 36.34 28.87 23.85
Total foreign : 149.55 523.12 99.01 96.86 554.28 73.92 144.81
Major exporters 4/ : 24.62 171.58 3.44 54.75 111.78 59.74 28.12
Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59
Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 4.00 6.89 15.93 4.63
Canada : 7.74 26.80 0.20 3.85 7.91 17.32 9.52
EU-15 : 12.65 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.23 13.38
Major importers 5/ : 89.69 143.90 50.37 11.40 208.31 2.59 73.06
Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.29 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70
China : 71.36 99.64 0.20 8.00 114.10 0.62 56.47
N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10
Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.45 28.68 2.88 9.94 28.99 2.34 4.70
India : 13.08 76.37 0.06 0.50 66.44 1.57 21.50
FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38
Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40
Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45
Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45
:
: 2001/02 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ : 168.66 579.58 106.67 107.85 587.59 106.96 160.64
United States : 23.85 53.28 2.86 5.05 32.85 26.13 21.01
Total foreign : 144.81 526.30 103.81 102.80 554.74 80.83 139.63
Major exporters 4/ : 28.12 152.52 9.36 54.97 111.75 53.80 24.46
Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55
Australia : 4.63 24.00 0.05 4.00 7.00 16.50 5.18
Canada : 9.52 21.30 0.30 3.75 8.07 16.50 6.55
EU-15 : 13.38 91.73 9.00 47.18 91.93 10.00 12.18
Major importers 5/ : 73.06 140.29 49.15 10.64 207.12 3.97 51.42
Brazil : 0.70 3.25 6.70 0.30 9.75 0.00 0.90
China : 56.47 93.87 1.30 7.00 112.60 1.50 37.54
N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.68 16.30 0.31 28.58 0.25 5.26
Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 9.50 1.68 9.45 0.27 1.56
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.70 35.24 1.67 11.19 31.18 4.17 6.26
India : 21.50 68.76 0.10 0.50 60.36 3.00 27.00
FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.69 19.56 68.39 13.66 18.30
Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.50 14.00 38.00 3.50 7.30
Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.30 4.97 4.00 5.20
Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.10 2.20 12.66 6.00 3.20
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-388-17
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2002/03 (Projected)
World 3/ :
June : 162.70 589.78 104.00 109.10 596.41 105.62 156.07
July : 160.64 580.72 102.67 107.47 594.28 104.22 147.08
United States :
June : 20.63 49.61 2.86 5.44 33.48 24.49 15.12
July : 21.01 47.59 2.86 4.76 32.82 24.49 14.14
Total foreign :
June : 142.08 540.17 101.14 103.66 562.93 81.13 140.96
July : 139.63 533.12 99.81 102.71 561.46 79.73 132.94
Major exporters 4/ :
June : 25.21 170.96 4.21 56.73 114.18 56.80 29.40
July : 24.46 168.61 3.76 56.63 114.08 54.80 27.95
Argentina Jun : 0.55 16.50 0.01 0.05 4.60 11.80 0.66
Jul : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66
Australia Jun : 4.68 23.00 0.05 3.70 6.63 17.00 4.10
Jul : 5.18 23.00 0.05 3.70 6.63 17.00 4.60
Canada Jun : 6.40 24.00 0.15 4.20 8.35 15.50 6.70
Jul : 6.55 23.00 0.20 4.10 8.25 15.00 6.50
EU-15 Jun : 13.58 107.46 4.00 48.78 94.60 12.50 17.94
Jul : 12.18 108.61 3.50 48.78 94.60 13.50 16.19
Major importers 5/ :
June : 52.18 142.17 49.80 8.53 204.29 3.42 36.44
July : 51.42 140.47 49.10 8.53 204.79 3.42 32.77
Brazil Jun : 0.90 3.30 6.50 0.20 9.80 0.00 0.90
Jul : 0.90 3.30 6.50 0.20 9.80 0.00 0.90
China Jun : 37.87 94.00 3.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 23.87
Jul : 37.54 92.00 2.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 20.54
N. Africa 6/ Jun : 5.44 11.98 15.90 0.30 27.78 0.25 5.29
Jul : 5.26 12.28 16.20 0.30 28.53 0.25 4.96
Pakistan Jun : 2.45 19.50 0.50 0.40 20.00 1.00 1.45
Jul : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45
SE Asia 7/ Jun : 1.56 0.00 9.80 1.78 9.73 0.22 1.42
Jul : 1.56 0.00 9.80 1.78 9.73 0.22 1.42
Selected other :
East. Europe Jun : 6.26 31.36 1.87 10.29 30.46 2.82 6.21
Jul : 6.26 30.56 1.92 10.14 30.36 2.92 5.46
India Jun : 27.00 74.00 0.10 0.60 64.10 4.00 33.00
Jul : 27.00 72.00 0.10 0.60 63.10 4.00 32.00
FSU-12 8/ Jun : 19.25 80.59 4.07 21.81 71.19 10.16 22.55
Jul : 18.30 80.39 4.17 21.11 70.84 10.66 21.35
Russia Jun : 7.80 41.00 1.00 15.50 39.50 2.50 7.80
Jul : 7.30 41.00 1.00 15.00 39.00 2.50 7.80
Kazakstan Jun : 5.70 11.00 0.02 1.50 5.27 4.00 7.45
Jul : 5.20 11.00 0.02 1.50 5.27 4.50 6.45
Ukraine Jun : 3.20 18.00 0.10 2.70 13.30 3.50 4.50
Jul : 3.
