USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - January 10, 2003
WASDE-394 January 10, 2003
WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are up 70
million bushels from last month due to reduced domestic use and trade.
Projected exports are 25 million bushels below last month because of
increased competition. Imports are reduced 5 million bushels because
of a dramatically slower pace in recent months and very tight spring
wheat supplies in Canada. Feed and residual use is reduced 50 million
bushels because December 1 stocks indicate smaller-than-expected use
during the first 6 months of the marketing year. The projected 2002/03
wheat price range is reduced 15 cents on each end to $3.50 to $3.80
per bushel.
Global 2002/03 production, consumption, and ending stocks projections
are little changed in aggregate from last month, but there are numerous
country-specific changes. Global imports are up from last month, largely
due to a 1.5-million-ton increase in prospective EU imports to a
world-leading 9.5 million tons. Projected exports for Russia are 2 million
tons higher because of a stronger-than-expected pace to date.
Projected Australian supplies and exports are up from last month as
larger beginning stocks more than offset a smaller prospective crop.
These higher export prospects are largely offset by reductions for
several countries. Reduced exports for Argentina reflect smaller
production prospects, while smaller prospective shipments by India, the
EU, and the United States are linked to smaller-than-expected sales to
date. The United States and EU account for most of the rise from last
month in projected 2002/03 global ending stocks.
COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are
up 81 million bushels from last month due to higher production and
lower use. Estimated corn production is up 4 million bushels as higher
yields more than offset lower harvested area. Projected exports are
down 50 million bushels from last month because of increased
competition. Industrial use is up 45 million bushels, reflecting rapidly
expanding use of corn for ethanol production. Feed and residual use is
down 75 million bushels because the December 1 stocks implied less
use in the September-November quarter than expected. Sorghum
exports are reduced 45 million bushels, reflecting the lower U.S.
production and larger-than-expected domestic use in the September-
December quarter. The projected price range for corn is down 5 cents
on each end to $2.15 to $2.55 per bushel.
Projected global 2002/03 production is little changed in aggregate from
last month. South African corn production is down 1.5 million tons due
to reduced area and yields. This is largely offset by increased
prospective production for Brazil's corn crop. The smaller South African
corn crop results in increased imports, reduced exports, and smaller
ending stocks. The opposite is true for Brazil, with the larger crop
resulting in lower imports, larger exports and domestic use, and bigger
ending stocks. The lower U.S. export prospects for corn are largely due
to expanding export prospects for China. China and the United States
account for most of the gain in 2002/03 global ending stocks from last
month. China's domestic use of corn is reduced 2 million tons in both
2001/02 and 2002/03.
RICE: The U.S. 2002/03 rice crop is estimated at 211 million cwt, down
slightly from last month and 2 percent below revised 2001/02. Average
yield for 2002/03 is estimated at a record 6,578 pounds per acre, down
33 pounds per acre from last month, but 82 pounds per acre above the
revised 2001/02 estimate. Planted area is slightly higher than last
month, but harvested area is unchanged. Projected imports for 2002/03
are raised slightly, due to additional imports of Australian rice by Puerto
Rico. No significant changes are made on the use side. Ending stocks
are projected at 32 million cwt, slightly below last month and 18 percent
below 2001/02. The season-average price range for 2002/03 is lowered
15 cents per cwt on each end to $3.65 to $3.95 per cwt based on
monthly prices reported to date by NASS and the expectation that global
prices will remain soft the remainder of the marketing year.
Global production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks for 2002/03
are nearly unchanged from a month ago. World rice production is
projected at 380.3 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month, but
17 million tons below 2001/02 and the smallest crop since 1995/96.
Global ending stocks are projected at 105.1 million tons, slightly above
last month, but nearly 28 million tons below 2001/02, and the lowest
stocks since 1986/87.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at 83.5
million tons, up 0.9 million tons from last month. Gains for soybeans
more than offset reductions for sunflowerseed, cottonseed, canola, and
peanuts. Soybean production is estimated at 2.73 billion bushels, up 40
million bushels from last month based on increased harvested area and
higher yields.
U.S. soybean exports are projected at 930 million bushels, up 30 million
from last month, despite increased export availabilities in South
America. Strong demand in China is boosting global imports. U.S.
soybean crush is reduced 5 million bushels this month based on lower
domestic meal consumption and reduced prospects for soybean meal
exports. Soybean oil production is up slightly despite the reduced crush
due to a higher oil extraction rate. Soybean oil stocks are up slightly
reflecting the increased production.
The projected price range for soybeans is $5.10 to $5.80 per bushel
compared with $5.05 to $5.85 per bushel last month. The projected
soybean oil price range is 20.5 to 23.0 cents per pound, up 0.5 cent on
the lower end compared with last month. Soybean meal prices are
projected at $160 to $180 per short ton, unchanged from last month.
Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at 324.0 million tons,
up 2.2 million tons from last month. Foreign production is projected at
240.5 million tons, up 1.4 million tons. Global soybean production is
projected at a record 190.9 million tons, up 2.1 million tons from last
month. Soybean production in Argentina is raised 1 million tons to a
record 33.5 million tons based on increased area and slightly better yield
prospects, as producers planted a larger proportion of higher-yielding
first-crop soybeans. Other changes this month include increased
sunflowerseed production for Russia due to higher yields, and increased
cottonseed production for Pakistan.
Global oilseed trade is increased this month, as increased U.S. soybean
exports more than offset a small reduction for Brazil. Soybean imports
by China are projected at a record 14.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons
from last month. Global oilseed crush is higher as increased soybean
crush in Argentina and China more than offsets the lower U.S. crush.
SUGAR: Projected U.S. beet sugar production for fiscal year 2002/03 is
decreased 100,000 tons, raw value, from last month, mainly due to a
smaller-than-expected 2002 sugarbeet crop. Lower cane sugar
production in Louisiana is offset by an increase in Florida. While
continued rains reduced harvest and milling yields in Louisiana,
favorable growing conditions improved production prospects in Florida.
Imports under re-export programs are increased 40,000 tons, half of
which will be exported in sugar-containing products. Season-ending
stocks are increased 108,000 tons to reflect both changes in reported
supply and use and raw sugar transfers to non-reporting entities ahead
of 2003 marketing allotments. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is 13.5
percent, compared with 12.1 percent last month.
For 2001/02, miscellaneous use is increased, mainly due to downward
revisions in deliveries by the Commodity Credit Corporation.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Estimated total meat production
for 2002 is lowered this month. Preliminary cattle and hog slaughter
data point to slightly smaller red meat production, and mature chicken
production is lowered.
The 2003 total meat production forecast is lowered from last month as
higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork and broiler
production. The weather-related slow pace of cattle marketings during
the last months of 2002 implies increased marketings and slaughter in
the first half of 2003. USDA's Cattle report, which will be released
January 31, will provide an indication of producer breeding intentions
and available supplies of feeder cattle. Pork production is lowered
slightly from last month as the December 30 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs
report showed continued declines in hog inventories and lower intended
farrowings than expected. Broiler production forecasts are lowered as
weekly eggs set and chicks placed data have been below a year earlier
since early fall. Turkey production forecasts are unchanged. Although
disease outbreaks have been reported in California's egg flock, egg
production forecasts are unchanged from last month.
First-quarter 2003 Choice steer prices are raised slightly as cattle
markets are reflecting concerns over the impacts of winter weather. Hog
prices are raised due to tighter hog supplies in 2003. Poultry price
forecasts are unchanged as large supplies continue to pressure poultry
prices.
Milk production forecasts for 2002/03 are lowered slightly from last
month. Although the rate of decline in cow numbers for the year is
reduced from last month, gains in milk per cow continue to lag historical
trends. Relatively weak milk prices in 2003 are expected to provide little
incentive to increase output per cow. Class III prices are expected to be
weaker at $9.85 to $10.35 per cwt, down slightly from last month, and
Class IV price are forecast at $10.05 to $10.75 per cwt. The all milk
price will average $11.35 to $11.85 per cwt.
COTTON: This month's U.S. cotton projections feature lower production
and ending stocks. Production is reduced 1.3 percent from last month
due to lower estimates for the Southeast and Arizona. Projections for
domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are
reduced to 6.3 million bales, down 200,000 bales from last month.
World 2002/03 beginning and ending stock projections are reduced this
month, production is virtually unchanged, and consumption and trade
are revised only marginally. Beginning stocks are reduced 750,000
bales in China, as revisions in the Chinese government's estimate of
yarn production for calendar 2001 have raised consumption for 2000/01
and 2001/02. This season's world production is unchanged, as
increases in Pakistan and Kazakstan offset a decrease for the United
States. Imports by China are forecast higher based on tighter supplies
and recent strong import demand, but the impact on world trade is offset
by small adjustments in several other countries. World ending stocks of
37.9 million bales are 3.1 percent below last month's projection.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural
Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This
report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates
Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5.
APPROVED:
JAMES R. MOSELEY
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on February 11,
2003.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be
released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003: Feb. 11, Mar.
11, Apr. 10, May 12, June 11, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec.
11.
Announcing Agricultural Outlook Forum 2003: You're invited to USDA's
79th annual Outlook forum on February 20-21, 2003, in Arlington, Virginia.
The meeting, which attracted 1,400 attendees in 2002, will provide timely
forecasts of farm prospects and insight into major trends affecting the farm
economy. For complete details access www.usda.gov/oce or send e-mail
agforum@usda.gov.
Leading analysts will be on hand to discuss planting, trade, and price
prospects for farm commodities and farm income prospects for 2003.
Meteorologists will discuss the impact of El Nino on global crops.
With a theme of Competing in the 21st Century, the program will feature
the potential for export competition from Central and Eastern Europe,
Brazil, and Asia, as well as progress in bilateral trade agreements and the
WTO. Focus sessions will highlight challenges producers face in the
competitive arena, ranging from the growing complexity and cost of
regulation, to access to markets and information, to dealing with food
safety and changing eating habits.
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WASDE-394-6
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 1,841.10 2,403.33 232.71 1,863.36 539.97
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,864.52 2,404.50 236.73 1,895.60 508.90
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 1,809.94 2,315.11 229.44 1,896.36 418.76
January : 1,807.73 2,316.63 228.52 1,890.95 425.68
Wheat :
2000/01 : 583.71 790.75 102.82 585.78 204.97
2001/02 (Est.) : 579.47 784.44 108.81 584.65 199.79
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 568.72 767.30 102.60 597.81 169.49
January : 567.51 767.30 102.92 595.75 171.55
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 859.63 1,069.50 105.78 880.67 188.83
2001/02 (Est.) : 887.72 1,076.55 101.44 900.28 176.26
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 860.93 1,035.16 100.20 890.77 144.38
January : 859.95 1,036.21 98.69 887.18 149.03
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 397.76 543.08 24.12 396.91 146.17
2001/02 (Est.) : 397.34 543.50 26.48 410.66 132.84
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 380.29 512.66 26.65 407.77 104.89
January : 380.27 513.12 26.92 408.02 105.10
:
: United States
Total grains 3/ :
2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43
2001/02 (Est.) : 321.86 405.20 83.82 253.96 67.42
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 295.86 368.63 84.10 249.30 35.24
January : 295.64 368.15 81.01 248.32 38.82
Wheat :
2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85
2001/02 (Est.) : 53.26 80.04 26.16 32.72 21.15
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 43.99 67.32 25.86 32.01 9.46
January : 43.99 67.18 25.17 30.65 11.36
Coarse grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70
2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.71 217.36 45.05
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 245.23 293.10 54.96 213.38 24.76
January : 245.04 292.76 52.55 213.76 26.45
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89
2001/02 (Est.) : 6.74 8.04 2.94 3.88 1.22
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 6.64 8.22 3.29 3.92 1.02
January : 6.60 8.20 3.29 3.92 1.00
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye,
millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).
WASDE-394-7
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/
Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: Foreign 3/
Total grains 4/ :
2000/01 : 1,501.27 1,982.42 144.60 1,607.99 462.54
2001/02 (Est.) : 1,542.66 1,999.30 152.91 1,641.64 441.48
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 1,514.08 1,946.48 145.34 1,647.06 383.52
January : 1,512.09 1,948.49 147.52 1,642.63 386.86
Wheat :
2000/01 : 522.96 701.70 73.92 549.48 181.13
2001/02 (Est.) : 526.21 704.41 82.65 551.93 178.65
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 524.73 699.98 76.74 565.80 160.03
January : 523.52 700.12 77.74 565.10 160.19
Coarse grains 5/ :
2000/01 : 586.50 744.80 49.16 665.28 136.13
2001/02 (Est.) : 625.85 759.43 46.72 682.93 131.21
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 615.70 742.06 45.24 677.40 119.62
January : 614.91 743.45 46.14 673.42 122.58
Rice, milled :
2000/01 : 391.81 535.92 21.53 393.23 145.28
2001/02 (Est.) : 390.60 535.46 23.54 406.78 131.62
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 373.65 504.44 23.36 403.86 103.87
January : 373.67 504.91 23.63 404.10 104.10
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains
and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed
grains.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
2000/01 : 88.68 134.03 26.58 92.21 42.45
2001/02 (Est.) : 98.35 140.80 28.99 94.57 46.63
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 87.41 134.81 29.45 96.39 38.84
January : 87.40 134.03 29.57 96.45 37.93
: United States
2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.74 8.86 6.00
2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.72 7.43
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 17.38 24.83 10.80 7.50 6.50
January : 17.15 24.60 10.80 7.50 6.30
: Foreign 3/
2000/01 : 71.49 112.91 19.84 83.35 36.45
2001/02 (Est.) : 78.05 114.48 17.99 86.85 39.21
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 70.04 109.98 18.65 88.89 32.34
January : 70.26 109.44 18.77 88.95 31.63
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.
WASDE-394-8
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 313.42 348.52 71.45 254.67 35.79
2001/02 (Est.) : 323.52 359.31 68.03 264.98 36.55
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 321.71 358.38 72.03 267.89 32.57
January : 323.95 360.50 72.66 268.65 33.76
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 175.35 181.47 57.01 175.80 5.33
2001/02 (Est.) : 182.76 188.09 60.41 181.70 5.58
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 186.03 191.66 61.36 185.40 5.66
January : 186.34 191.92 61.58 185.79 5.76
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 89.50 97.65 35.20 88.71 8.41
2001/02 (Est.) : 91.47 99.87 36.96 91.23 7.64
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 92.21 99.85 38.04 92.99 6.50
January : 92.35 99.98 38.20 92.95 6.52
:
: United States
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.07 7.82
2001/02 (Est.) : 89.83 98.30 29.94 50.62 6.87
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 82.58 89.82 25.29 49.09 5.72
January : 83.46 90.72 26.10 48.93 6.11
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 38.22 39.68 7.26 32.02 0.40
2001/02 (Est.) : 38.90 40.34 7.05 33.00 0.29
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 37.95 39.23 5.86 33.10 0.28
January : 37.64 38.93 5.65 33.00 0.28
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 9.51 12.39 1.05 9.65 1.69
2001/02 (Est.) : 9.65 12.81 1.56 9.94 1.30
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 9.49 12.23 1.32 10.05 0.86
January : 9.47 12.22 1.30 10.05 0.88
:
: Foreign 3/
Oilseeds :
2000/01 : 228.53 253.83 43.48 205.61 27.97
2001/02 (Est.) : 233.69 261.00 38.09 214.36 29.68
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 239.12 268.56 46.74 218.80 26.85
January : 240.49 269.79 46.57 219.72 27.66
Oilmeals :
2000/01 : 137.13 141.79 49.75 143.78 4.94
2001/02 (Est.) : 143.86 147.75 53.36 148.70 5.29
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 148.08 152.43 55.51 152.30 5.38
January : 148.70 152.99 55.93 152.79 5.48
Vegetable Oils :
2000/01 : 79.99 85.26 34.14 79.06 6.72
2001/02 (Est.) : 81.82 87.06 35.39 81.28 6.34
2002/03 (Proj.) :
December : 82.73 87.62 36.72 82.94 5.64
January : 82.88 87.77 36.91 82.90 5.64
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an
Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to
world minus United States.
WASDE-394-9
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : December January
===============================================================================
Area : Million acres
Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.4 60.4
Harvested : 53.1 48.6 45.8 45.8
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 42.0 40.2 35.3 35.3
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 950 876 777 777
Production : 2,232 1,957 1,616 1,616
Imports : 90 108 80 75
Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,474 2,469
Food : 950 926 940 940
Seed : 80 82 86 86
Feed and residual : 304 194 150 100
Domestic, total : 1,334 1,202 1,176 1,126
Exports : 1,062 961 950 925
Use, total : 2,396 2,164 2,126 2,051
Ending stocks : 876 777 348 418
CCC inventory : 97 99 75 75
Free stocks : 779 678 273 343
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 3.65- 3.95 3.50- 3.80
===============================================================================
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use
===============================================================================
Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : :
June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total
===============================================================================
2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876
Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,957
Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941
Domestic use : 467 303 257 95 80 1,202
Exports : 349 216 199 147 50 961
Use, total : 815 520 457 242 130 2,164
Ending stocks, total : 363 230 78 73 33 777
:
2002/03 (projected) :
Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777
Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616
Supply, total 3/ : 973 612 417 319 147 2,469
Domestic use : 445 247 247 101 86 1,126
Exports : 355 275 110 150 35 925
Use, total : 800 522 357 251 121 2,051
Ending stocks, total :
January : 173 90 60 68 27 418
December : 128 90 40 63 27 348
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1.
2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes
imports.
WASDE-394-10
U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : December January
===============================================================================
FEED GRAINS :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.2 98.7
Harvested : 87.7 83.6 84.3 82.8
Yield per harvested : Metric tons
acre : 3.11 3.13 2.91 2.96
: Million metric tons
Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.1 45.0
Production : 272.9 261.7 245.1 244.9
Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.5
Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 292.8 292.4
Feed and residual : 159.8 158.9 151.3 150.5
Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 61.8 63.0
Domestic, total : 215.1 217.0 213.1 213.5
Exports : 56.6 54.7 55.0 52.5
Use, total : 271.7 271.7 268.0 266.0
Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.0 24.7 26.4
CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Free stocks : 52.4 44.9 24.6 26.3
Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.2
:
CORN :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 79.6 75.8 78.8 79.1
Harvested : 72.4 68.8 70.5 69.3
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 136.9 138.2 127.6 130.0
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,599 1,596
Production : 9,915 9,507 9,003 9,008
Imports : 7 10 15 15
Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 10,618 10,619
Feed and residual : 5,842 5,877 5,675 5,600
Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,054 2,200 2,245
Domestic, total : 7,799 7,931 7,875 7,845
Exports : 1,941 1,889 1,900 1,850
Use, total : 9,740 9,820 9,775 9,695
Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,596 843 924
CCC inventory : 8 5 5 5
Free stocks : 1,891 1,591 838 919
Outstanding loans : 253 213 200 200
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.97 2.20- 2.60 2.15- 2.55
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/
Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.
WASDE-394-11
U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : December January
===============================================================================
: Million bushels
SORGHUM :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.3 9.6
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.5 7.3
Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 50.7 50.7
Beginning stocks : 65 42 59 61
Production : 471 515 381 370
Imports : 0 0 0 0
Supply, total : 536 556 441 431
Feed and residual : 222 210 115 160
Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 45 45
Total domestic : 258 255 160 205
Exports : 237 241 245 200
Use, total : 494 495 405 405
Ending stocks, total : 42 61 36 26
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.94 2.25- 2.65 2.20- 2.60
:
BARLEY :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.1 5.1
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.1 4.1
Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 54.9 54.9
Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93
Production : 319 249 227 227
Imports : 29 24 25 20
Supply, total : 459 380 345 340
Feed and residual : 123 88 80 80
Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172
Total domestic : 295 260 252 252
Exports : 58 27 20 20
Use, total : 353 287 272 272
Ending stocks, total : 106 93 73 68
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.22 2.50- 2.80 2.55- 2.75
:
OATS :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.0
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.1
Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.4 56.8 56.8
Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63
Production : 150 117 119 119
Imports : 106 96 100 100
Supply, total : 332 286 282 282
Feed and residual : 189 148 150 150
Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72
Total domestic : 257 220 222 222
Exports : 2 3 2 3
Use, total : 259 223 224 224
Ending stocks, total : 73 63 58 58
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.59 1.70- 1.90 1.70- 1.80
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers.
WASDE-394-12
U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
(Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :==============================
: : Est. : December January
===============================================================================
TOTAL :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 3.06 3.33 3.23 3.24
Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.21 3.21
Yield per harvested : Pounds
acre : 6,281 6,496 6,611 6,578
:
: Million hundredweight
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 39.0 39.0
Production : 190.9 215.3 212.0 211.0
Imports : 10.9 13.2 11.5 12.0
Supply, total : 229.2 256.9 262.5 261.9
Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 123.9 125.0 125.0
Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 94.1 105.0 105.0
Rough : 22.8 31.7 39.0 39.0
Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 62.4 66.0 66.0
Use, total : 200.7 218.0 230.0 229.9
Ending stocks : 28.5 39.0 32.5 32.0
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 69.0
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.17 3.80- 4.10 3.65- 3.95
:
LONG GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70 2.51
Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,213 6,260
Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.8 26.8
Production : 128.8 167.6 157.5 157.2
Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 188.3 193.8 193.5
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 88.0 90.7 90.7
Exports 8/ : 65.3 73.5 82.0 82.0
Use, total : 141.5 161.6 172.7 172.7
Ending stocks : 11.6 26.8 21.1 20.9
:
:
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62 0.70
Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733 7,729
Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.7 10.7
Production : 62.1 47.7 54.5 53.7
Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.1 67.2 66.9
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 35.9 34.3 34.3
Exports 8/ : 17.9 20.6 23.0 23.0
Use, total : 59.2 56.4 57.3 57.3
Ending stocks : 15.6 10.7 9.9 9.6
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August
1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type
undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil.
cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported
use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total
rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending
stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports
are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e.,
the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the
quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are
estimated.
WASDE-394-13
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : December January
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS: : Million acres
Area :
Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.0 73.8
Harvested : 72.4 73.0 71.8 72.2
:
: Bushels
Yield per harvested :
acre : 38.1 39.6 37.5 37.8
:
: Million bushels
:
Beginning stocks : 290 248 208 208
Production : 2,758 2,891 2,690 2,730
Imports : 4 2 2 2
Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 2,900 2,940
Crushings : 1,640 1,700 1,660 1,655
Exports : 996 1,063 900 930
Seed : 91 89 87 87
Residual : 78 82 78 78
Use, total : 2,804 2,933 2,725 2,750
Ending stocks : 248 208 175 190
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.38 5.05- 5.85 5.10 - 5.80
:
:
: Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL: :
Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,360 2,360
Production : 18,420 18,898 18,760 18,785
Imports : 73 46 65 65
Supply, total : 20,488 21,821 21,185 21,210
Domestic : 16,210 16,942 17,450 17,450
Exports : 1,401 2,520 2,300 2,300
Use, total : 17,611 19,461 19,750 19,750
Ending stocks : 2,877 2,360 1,435 1,460
Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.46 20.00- 20.50-
: 23.00 23.00
:
: Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL: :
Beginning stocks : 293 383 240 240
Production : 39,385 40,292 39,470 39,120
Imports : 51 143 240 240
Supply, total : 39,729 40,818 39,950 39,600
Domestic : 31,643 33,077 33,500 33,350
Exports : 7,703 7,502 6,200 6,000
Use, total : 39,346 40,578 39,700 39,350
Ending stocks : 383 240 250 250
Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 167.73 160.00- 160.00-
: 180.00 180.00
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices:
soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil,
simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48
percent, Decatur.
WASDE-394-14
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
======================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=====================
: : Estimate : December January
======================================================================
: 1,000 short tons, raw value
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,180 1,288 1,276
Production 2/3/ : 8,770 7,906 8,255 8,155
Beet sugar : 4,680 3,914 4,315 4,215
Cane sugar 4/ : 4,090 3,992 3,940 3,940
Imports 2/ : 1,591 1,526 1,565 1,605
TRQ 5/ : 1,277 1,149 1,245 1,245
Other program 6/ : 238 296 260 300
Non-program 7/ : 76 81 60 60
Total supply : 12,580 11,612 11,108 11,036
:
Exports 2/8/ : 141 108 125 125
Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,132 10,084 9,780 9,800
Domestic food use : 10,000 9,891 9,600 9,600
Other 9/ : 132 193 180 200
Miscellaneous 10/ : 127 144 0 -200
Use, total : 10,400 10,336 9,905 9,725
Ending stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,276 1,203 1,311
Private : 1,396 1,064 NA NA
Other 11/ : 784 212 NA NA
:
Stocks to use ratio : 21.0 12.3 12.1 13.5
======================================================================
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical
data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S.
Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on January Crop
Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates
Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected
2002/03): FL 1,980 (2,150); HI 251 (275); LA 1,587 (1,340); TX 174
(175); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ)
with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the
fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available
TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the
re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and
other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products
for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ For 2000/01 and
2001/02, mostly residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2000/01
and 2001/02, uncommitted CCC-owned sugar.
WASDE-394-15
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2002/03 Projections
Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===============================
: : Est. : December January
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.38 13.96
Harvested : 13.05 13.83 12.86 12.41
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 632 705 648 663
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.43 7.43
Production : 17.19 20.30 17.38 17.14
Imports : 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03
Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 24.83 24.60
Domestic use : 8.86 7.72 7.50 7.50
Exports : 6.74 11.00 10.80 10.80
Use, total : 15.60 18.72 18.30 18.30
Unaccounted 3/ : -0.48 0.18 0.03 0.00
Ending stocks : 6.00 7.43 6.50 6.30
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 29.8 39.1 5/
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
5/ Weighted average for August-November 2002. USDA is prohibited by law from
publishing cotton price projections.
===============================================================================
Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of
Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending
stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the
quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing
year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 33.6
percent.
WASDE-394-16
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2000/01
:
World 3/ : 207.04 583.71 101.53 106.44 585.78 102.82 204.97
United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.29 36.30 28.90 23.85
Total foreign : 181.19 522.96 99.09 98.16 549.48 73.92 181.13
Major exporters 4/ : 24.58 171.30 3.44 54.00 110.72 59.74 28.85
Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59
Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 3.40 6.30 15.93 5.22
Canada : 7.70 26.52 0.20 3.70 7.44 17.32 9.66
EU-15 : 12.65 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.23 13.38
Major importers 5/ : 121.32 144.40 50.28 13.40 204.80 2.59 108.61
Brazil : 1.30 1.66 7.20 0.20 9.51 0.00 0.65
China : 102.94 99.64 0.20 10.00 110.28 0.62 91.88
N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10
Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.45 28.87 2.73 9.99 28.88 2.34 4.84
India : 13.08 76.37 0.44 0.50 66.82 1.57 21.50
FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38
Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40
Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45
Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45
:
: 2001/02 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ : 204.97 579.47 108.49 108.82 584.65 108.81 199.79
United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.29 32.72 26.16 21.15
Total foreign : 181.13 526.21 105.57 103.53 551.93 82.65 178.65
Major exporters 4/ : 28.85 151.79 10.25 54.70 111.29 54.98 24.63
Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55
Australia : 5.22 24.00 0.08 3.45 6.48 16.41 6.41
Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 3.70 7.81 16.27 6.49
EU-15 : 13.38 91.73 9.82 47.50 92.26 11.49 11.18
Major importers 5/ : 108.61 141.31 48.82 12.45 203.22 4.12 91.41
Brazil : 0.65 3.25 6.78 0.40 9.78 0.00 0.90
China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59
N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.41 0.31 29.18 0.25 5.79
Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20
Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.85 1.38 8.68 0.35 1.61
Selected other :
East. Europe : 4.84 34.69 1.74 10.94 30.83 4.14 6.29
India : 21.50 68.76 0.03 0.50 61.21 3.09 26.00
FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.54 19.66 68.60 13.80 17.80
Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.55 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.40
Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20
Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.08 2.20 12.64 5.49 3.70
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-394-17
World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2002/03 (Projected)
World 3/ :
December : 198.58 568.72 103.12 117.93 597.81 102.60 169.49
January : 199.79 567.51 104.72 117.27 595.75 102.92 171.55
United States :
December : 21.15 43.99 2.18 4.08 32.01 25.86 9.46
January : 21.15 43.99 2.04 2.72 30.65 25.17 11.36
Total foreign :
December : 177.43 524.73 100.95 113.85 565.80 76.74 160.03
January : 178.65 523.52 102.68 114.55 565.10 77.74 160.19
Major exporters 4/ :
December : 23.49 143.40 8.46 61.83 118.63 38.30 18.42
January : 24.63 142.40 9.96 62.53 119.35 38.30 19.35
Argentina Dec : 0.55 13.50 0.01 0.05 4.60 8.80 0.66
Jan : 0.55 13.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 8.30 0.66
Australia Dec : 5.27 10.50 0.15 4.50 7.48 6.00 2.44
Jan : 6.41 10.00 0.15 4.20 7.20 7.00 2.36
Canada Dec : 6.49 15.70 0.30 5.00 9.35 8.00 5.14
Jan : 6.49 15.70 0.30 5.00 9.35 8.00 5.14
EU-15 Dec : 11.18 103.70 8.00 52.28 97.20 15.50 10.19
Jan : 11.18 103.70 9.50 53.28 98.20 15.00 11.19
Major importers 5/ :
December : 91.36 140.59 47.20 10.85 201.38 3.98 73.80
January : 91.41 140.40 47.60 10.85 201.38 3.98 74.05
Brazil Dec : 0.90 3.10 7.00 0.35 10.20 0.00 0.80
Jan : 0.90 2.90 7.20 0.35 10.10 0.00 0.90
China Dec : 76.59 92.00 1.00 7.00 106.11 1.50 61.97
Jan : 76.59 92.00 1.00 7.00 106.11 1.50 61.97
N. Africa 6/ Dec : 5.74 11.11 17.00 0.30 28.98 0.20 4.67
Jan : 5.79 11.11 17.20 0.30 29.08 0.20 4.82
Pakistan Dec : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45
Jan : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45
SE Asia 7/ Dec : 1.61 0.00 9.60 1.90 9.55 0.28 1.38
Jan : 1.61 0.00 9.60 1.90 9.55 0.28 1.38
Selected other :
East. Europe Dec : 6.29 30.79 2.25 10.44 30.57 3.35 5.41
Jan : 6.29 30.79 2.25 10.44 30.57 3.35 5.41
India Dec : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 64.05 6.00 28.00
Jan : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 65.05 5.00 28.00
FSU-12 8/ Dec : 17.80 95.75 3.12 24.66 74.93 21.66 20.07
Jan : 17.80 95.75 3.07 24.66 73.88 23.66 19.07
Russia Dec : 6.40 49.50 0.50 17.50 41.50 7.50 7.40
Jan : 6.40 49.50 0.50 17.50 40.50 9.50 6.40
Kazakstan Dec : 5.20 13.00 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.00 7.55
Jan : 5.20 13.00 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.00 7.55
Ukraine Dec : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 9.00 2.20
Jan : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 9.00 2.20
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China,
Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and
Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States.
WASDE-394-18
World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
: Supply : Use :
:=========================:=======================:Ending
Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks
:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :
: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
:
: 2000/01
:
World 3/ : 209.87 859.63 102.47 587.19 880.67 105.78 188.83
United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70
Total foreign : 161.01 586.50 99.75 427.37 665.28 49.16 136.13
Major exporters 4/ : 9.77 62.29 3.21 36.13 48.44 19.68 7.15
Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22
Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.57 6.09 4.36 1.11
Canada : 5.67 24.03 2.59 20.20 24.32 3.64 4.33
Major importers 5/ : 31.79 155.54 69.39 161.71 217.68 10.69 28.36
EU-15 : 19.52 107.19 3.03 78.20 102.81 10.05 16.88
Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33
Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.09 36.07 0.02 3.06
Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.61 1.57
South Korea : 1.04 0.30 8.89 6.53 9.00 0.00 1.23
Selected other :
China : 102.72 113.95 2.42 93.38 128.19 7.30 83.60
East. Europe : 4.75 37.01 2.91 30.66 40.99 1.25 2.43
FSU-12 6/ : 3.55 49.49 1.09 29.09 45.69 2.46 5.97
Russia : 0.88 28.20 0.76 15.60 26.78 0.57 2.49
Ukraine : 1.19 12.99 0.07 7.55 10.83 1.45 1.98
:
: 2001/02 (Estimated)
:
World 3/ : 188.83 887.72 100.03 599.60 900.28 101.44 176.26
United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 159.00 217.36 54.71 45.05
Total foreign : 136.13 625.85 97.47 440.60 682.93 46.72 131.21
Major exporters 4/ : 7.15 61.62 5.04 36.18 48.38 18.21 7.22
Argentina : 1.22 18.45 0.03 6.20 8.26 10.11 1.32
Australia : 1.11 11.08 0.10 5.01 6.52 4.33
